CNN/Gallup... reverse bounce?

[agcatter]

... factor in that these polling numbers are gathered two days after a week long coronation of John F Kerry.

Let's see what those numbers say two days after the Republicans get their shot to dominate the airways.

[JFK-Democrat]

Horse race numbers go up, horse race numbers go down, but relect numbers stay the same.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Recent polls:
CNN Bush up 4, MOE=4
Newsweek Kerry up 7, MOE=4
Zogby, Kerry up 5, MOE=3.2

CNN is probably an outlier.

[The Duke]

Recent polls:
CNN Bush up 4, MOE=4
Newsweek Kerry up 7, MOE=4
Zogby, Kerry up 5, MOE=3.2

CNN is probably an outlier.

Actually, both Zogby and Newsweek have horrid reputations when it comes to accuracy.  CNN outsourced their polling to Gallup, which has an imeccable reputation for accuracy.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Has anyone seen Party breakdown numbers for this poll?

Interesting poll....Kerry improves on just above every issue and trait asked after the vote question, but goes down in the horserace.  That would actually suggest to me that the sample is NOT an outlier.  But I would be interested to find these people who like Kerry on the issues, but are voting for Bush.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Recent polls:
CNN Bush up 4, MOE=4
Newsweek Kerry up 7, MOE=4
Zogby, Kerry up 5, MOE=3.2

CNN is probably an outlier.

Actually, both Zogby and Newsweek have horrid reputations when it comes to accuracy.  CNN outsourced their polling to Gallup, which has an imeccable reputation for accuracy.

Zogby nailed the 1996 election. Gallup really blew the 1992 election.

[The Duke]

jfern,

Zogby got one election right in its history.  Check their results from 2002.  Gallup, however, has shown great consisstency over time and has a proven methodology.  The 1992 was a strange election because of the large Perot vote.  And they didn't "really blow" the 1992 election.  They missed to winning margin, but picked the right winner.  Check them against any polling firm over time and they will stack up well.  Zogby doesn't.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

jfern,

Zogby got one election right in its history.  Check their results from 2002.  Gallup, however, has shown great consisstency over time and has a proven methodology.  The 1992 was a strange election because of the large Perot vote.  And they didn't "really blow" the 1992 election.  They missed to winning margin, but picked the right winner.  Check them against any polling firm over time and they will stack up well.  Zogby doesn't.

Zogby was more accurate in 2000 than most other polling agencies. As for predicting the winner, who needed polls in say, 1964?

[MODU]

Zogby is the "Sunday funnies" of pollsters.  Never to be taken seriously, even if they are in full color.  hahaha

[The Vorlon]

Zogby was more accurate in 2000 than most other polling agencies.

Wrong:

Actual Race was 48 / 48

Zogby predicted 48/46 for Gore => 2% Error

Others:

Harris - Predicted a tied => 2 better than Zogby
Fox/Opinion Dynamics  - Predicted a tied => 2 better than Zogby
Harris Interactive - Predicted a tied => 2 better than Zogby
NYTimes (!!!)  - PredictedGore +1 => 1 better than Zogby
Quinlan Greenburg Rosner - Predicted Gore +1 => 1 better than Zogby
Snell Lake Perry - Predicted Gore +1 => 1 better than Zogby

Others:

TIPP - Predicted Bush + 1.9% - same 2% error as Zogby
ICR  - Predicted Bush + 2% - same 2% error as Zogby
Gallup  - Predicted Bush + 2% - same 2% error as Zogby
PEW - Predicted Bush + 2% - same 2% error as Zogby

I am NOT knocking Zogby coming within 2% - that's an excelent result. - But many others were closer, and many others were the same.

The notion that Zogby was "more accurate than most" in 2000 is simply just wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Generally I find national polls a waste of time until the last few weeks/days of an election.
And then only to gauge momentum

[TheWildCard]

When I first saw this all I could say was "wow..." Whether its a good poll or not you have to admit it kind of hurts Kerry a little. Now I just hope the Republicans don't get too comfortable with polls like this one and think its in the bag because theres a long time between now and Nov 2nd.