Will anybody drop out before Iowa?

[Joe Biden 2020]

With only 12 1/2 weeks to go until the most likely date for the Iowa Caucuses (Thursday, January 3, 2008), will we see any more presidential candidates drop out between now and then, or will they all just wait out at least Iowa?

[Sensei]

Maybe Gravel

[MAS117]

Maybe Gravel

What possible reason would he have to drop out?

[Mr. Morden]

Biden or Dodd might drop out, though there's a good chance they'll just wait it out until Iowa.  On the GOP side, I think there'll be at least one more dropout before Iowa, with Duncan Hunter being the odds on favorite to be the next to go.....though Brownback might also go if he continues to poll worse than Huckabee.

But in any case, the answer to your question is yes, I think we will see at least one more dropout, more likely from the GOP than the Dems.

[Kushahontas]

im 70-80% sure dodd and biden will drop out by then. MAYBE gravel too but he might tough it out til the very end along with kucinich b/c it's ~symbolic~ or something

[© tweed]

Maybe Gravel

he isn't playing to win and never has, so there's no reason to think he's going to drop out before Iowa.  he probably won't drop out, ever - his campaign will continue on until the convention, ala Kucinich 2004.  hopefully Gravel wins a few delegates somewhere, although it isn't probable.

[Boris]

Biden, Dodd, and Richardson might drop out and endorse Clinton in exchange for Cabinet Positions. Or stay in the race until Super Tuesday and exchange their acquired delegates.

[Eraserhead]

Biden or Dodd might drop out. I don't see anyone else getting out before Iowa.

[Gustaf]

The serious candidates all have reason to stay till Iowa - the chances of pulling an upset there are too good to pass up. Remember Kerry and Edwards last time around. The non-serious candidates have no reason to drop out at any specific point in time. I guess the semi-serious candidates, those who are serious politicians but have no chance of winning, may drop out. I.e. Biden and Dodd.

[StateBoiler]

Maybe Gravel

he isn't playing to win and never has, so there's no reason to think he's going to drop out before Iowa.  he probably won't drop out, ever - his campaign will continue on until the convention, ala Kucinich 2004.  hopefully Gravel wins a few delegates somewhere, although it isn't probable.

Gravel's actual effect in my view is he has made Kucinich look more legitimate.

Maybe Duncan Hunter and Sam Brownback. For the Democrats, I can't see anyone dropping out. Kucinich and Gravel wouldn't. I'd consider Dodd the most likely.

[Padfoot]

Biden has been getting 5% and 6% in some polls so I don't see him going anywhere.  Dodd, on the other hand, isn't going anywhere.  I don't think most people even know (or care) who he is.  I could easily see him dropping out before Iowa.  None of the other Democrats will though unless there is an absolute implosion or a major scandal involving one of them.

[Ebowed]

Duncan Hunter

[nlm]

Hunter is not a bad guess. Unlike most other bottom tier candidates, Hunter most likely will not want to get a public spanking in Iowa.

If the Christian right wants to gather behind Huckabee, Brownback may get pushed to exit stage left to amp up Huckabee in Iowa - but I haven't heard that such a thing is happening.

I have heard that Richardson is being pushed to run for the open Senate seat in New Mexico. If he did that he would obviously have to drop out. However, I have not heard that Richardson is interesting in doing so. I still think he running for the position of Clinton's Vice President, and I think he'll get it - so I am of the opinion that Richardson will pass on the Senate and stay in the race to increase his value to Clinton by getting his name out more.

Biden seems to be running for a cabinet position (SoS), so I imagine he will stick with it through the first few contests and then call a colorful press conference.

I think Dodd still believes he is in it to win it. If he dosn't figure out that is semi-dellusional prior to Iowa, he will stick around in order to see if he can come in 2nd or 3rd there (which seems hopeless). It's also possible he is running for VP to Obama (though I don't think so).

[Joe Biden 2020]

Brownback has said that he will drop out if he doesn't finish at least fourth in Iowa.  My thoughts:  Bye-Bye Brownback.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, though I still think he might well drop out even before Iowa if he becomes convinced that there's no way he's going to manage that 4th place finish.  Brownback is still #2 on my list of "most likely to be the next Republican to drop out of the race" after Hunter.  Oh, and Tancredo has said he'll drop out if he doesn't finish in the top 3 in either IA or NH.  As I said in another thread, I wouldn't be that surprised if Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, and Tancredo are all out within the first 10 days of January, leaving only Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, Paul, and Keyes to compete in states not named Iowa or New Hampshire.

[Verily]

Maybe Gravel

he isn't playing to win and never has, so there's no reason to think he's going to drop out before Iowa.  he probably won't drop out, ever - his campaign will continue on until the convention, ala Kucinich 2004.  hopefully Gravel wins a few delegates somewhere, although it isn't probable.

He might be able to pick up 15% in Alaska, since most of the opposition will have dropped out by then. Didn't Kucinich manage that in Ohio in 2004?

[© tweed]

Maybe Gravel

he isn't playing to win and never has, so there's no reason to think he's going to drop out before Iowa.  he probably won't drop out, ever - his campaign will continue on until the convention, ala Kucinich 2004.  hopefully Gravel wins a few delegates somewhere, although it isn't probable.

He might be able to pick up 15% in Alaska, since most of the opposition will have dropped out by then. Didn't Kucinich manage that in Ohio in 2004?

and Oregon and Hawaii IIRC.  never made much sense of why he did so well in Hawaii; it was before everybody dropped out (mid-February) and he finished second with ~30%.  don't ask me why.

Kucinich got around 20% in OR in a very late (May/June) primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, Kucinich actually got 26% of the vote in Hawaii's caucus, yet only got 9% in Ohio's primary (which is still kind of high, by his standards I guess).  But it's not exactly true that Hawaii's caucus was "before everybody dropped out".  It was on Feb. 24th, which, yes, was before Edwards dropped out, but IIRC, both Dean and Clark were already out by then, and many people were questioning why Edwards was still in the race.  Once Kerry followed up his Feb. 3rd victories with wins in MI, TN, VA, and WI, it was pretty clear that he had the thing wrapped up.