Survey USA Poll from North Carolina

[lonestar]

Poll conducted July 24-26.

Bush- 51%
Kerry- 44%

http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NC040727president.pdf

[lonestar]

Also  found from Survey USA a poll from Kentucky.

Bush- 52%
Kerry- 42%

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/KY040727pressenamend.pdf

[ATFFL]

Kentucky is a bit interesting, looks good but Dems are under represented in the registered voters.  Its tough because a lot of them will self identify as Republicans, and S-USA usually uses self-identifiers.  This is a result of the "Dixiecrat" syndrome that plagues southern state voting records.

NC is the reverse with Republicans terribly under represented in the RV.  47% of the state is registered Republican compared to 38% in the poll.  Possibly also a self identifier problem, but harder to explain.

[© tweed]

Looks like a tad to big in NC, I'd say Bush is up five.

The Kentucky poll is in line with the rest of the Kentucky polls.

[The Vorlon]

Looks like a tad to big in NC, I'd say Bush is up five.

The Kentucky poll is in line with the rest of the Kentucky polls.

Research 2000 says Bush +5
Survey USA says 7
Mason Dixon says 3

Lets call it 5% after the Edwards bounce.

Here is the Research 2000 poll.

http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/elections/story/1435668p-7559493c.html

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Nah, NC's not gonna switch this year.... I'd say in 2008 maybe.  

[Reds4]

Vorlon, Your polling expertise and breakdown's have certainly been missed. Glad your back.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Both NC and KY are closer than I'd have thought they would have been going into 2004.
NC is easy to explain (Edwards+Textiles), but Kentucky isn't... Bush will still carry KY, but I'm interested to see why Bush is doing worse in KY this year than 2000.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, Your polling expertise and breakdown's have certainly been missed. Glad your back.

Thanks