The Hill: Lauzen to enter race officially as Oberweis woos Hastert crowd

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
September 07, 2007

State Sen. Chris Lauzen will announce his candidacy for the seat of retiring Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) in about a week, setting up a face-off with former gubernatorial and Senate candidate Jim Oberweis for the GOP nomination.

Lauzen told The Hill on Wednesday that his campaign would officially launch “in seven to 10 days.”

Lauzen said he intends to differentiate himself from Oberweis by focusing on his electoral victories, his independence and his experience. Oberweis’s strategists see their candidate as the GOP front-runner and intend to set up his contrast with the
Democrats versus running against Lauzen.

“I’ve been doing for 15 years what Jim promises to do in campaigns,” Lauzen said. “The other thing is that I win campaigns; Jim loses them. ... He’s spent $7.5 million to lose three campaigns.”

Oberweis is resisting any comparisons to Lauzen and is focusing on saving the district from Democratic takeover.

“I’m not running against Chris Lauzen; I’m running against the Democrats,” Oberweis said. “I think there’s a reasonable chance, a year from now, they’re going to look around and say, ‘Boy, wouldn’t we love to embarrass the former speaker by electing a Democrat?’”

Oberweis has finished second in three consecutive statewide primaries — for Senate in 2002 and 2004 and for governor in 2006. Lauzen is a grassroots-oriented conservative state senator who has battled with some Illinois Republican leaders, including Hastert and former Gov. George Ryan.

Oberweis, though, has kept in close contact with Hastert throughout his flirtation with running for the seat, making sure not to offend the former Speaker with his entreaties. It’s not clear whether Hastert will endorse Oberweis, as he did in 2002, but Oberweis is signing on with many of Hastert’s people, including lobbyist Dan Mattoon and former staffers Brad Hahn and David From.

Oberweis officially entered the race two weeks ago and is willing to plug a similar amount of money into the primary as he has in the past. According to his FEC filings, he is prepared to spend $5 million on the primary and general elections combined.

He said he would like to save the bulk of that for the general election, where he could potentially face a self-funding Democrat, Bill Foster. Other Democratic candidates for the seat include attorney Jotham Stein and 2006 Hastert challenger John Laesch. Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns is also running on the Republican side. The district leans Republican.

Lauzen, meanwhile, is a notoriously under-funded candidate. In the statewide comptroller race in 1998, he raised just $325,000, was badly outspent, and lost the race 59-40.

But he says that race is evidence of how much he can do on the grassroots level despite a big money deficit. So far, he has collected the endorsements of four GOP state senators in the 14th district and former Sen. Peter Fitzgerald (R-Ill.). He also boasts a 3,000-member volunteer network.

Oberweis, who is feverishly meeting with political leaders across the district, will begin rolling out endorsements soon.
One endorsement that could play a particularly interesting role is that of Jack Roeser, a wealthy conservative activist who chairs the local Family Taxpayer Network.

After backing Oberweis in last year’s gubernatorial primary, Roeser has turned on him and is backing Lauzen. Roeser spent a half-million dollars on Oberweis in the gubernatorial primary but became upset at him for supporting gubernatorial nominee Judy Baar Topinka after he lost to her in the primary.

Roeser is no fan of Topinka.

“Somebody ought to run on a Republican platform for once,” Roeser said in an interview with The Hill last month. “[Oberweis] turned out to be hollow. That’s very disappointing to me.”

It’s not yet clear exactly what Roeser will do under the more restrictive federal campaign finance laws, but he said he will fundraise and can control the issues. He began the campaign last month by sending out a letter sharply criticizing Hastert, a move that was seen as anti-Oberweis.

It’s evident that Hastert will loom over the campaign in one form or another, and Lauzen is critical of Oberweis’s courting of the Hastert crowd.

“I respect Denny’s service, but I also don’t think that any of us does anything flawlessly,” Lauzen said.

Oberweis, referring to his three primary losses, acknowledged room to grow as a politician and said his losses should help him this time around.

“I have made plenty of mistakes as an entrepreneur, and I’m sure that as a candidate I’ve made plenty of mistakes as well,” Oberweis said. “But the good news is, good entrepreneurs tend to learn from their mistakes. And I believe I’ve learned a lot.”

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/lauzen-to-enter-race-officially-as-oberweis-woos-hastert-crowd-2007-09-07.html

[MarkWarner08]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

[Sam Spade]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me.  Should be an interesting primary.

[MarkWarner08]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me.  Should be an interesting primary.

Interesting point.  Let me elucidate why I think IL-14 will be competitive.  In 2004, IL-14 voted 55-44 for Bush; In 2004, WI-08 voted 55-44 for Bush. Since 1872, this seat had been held by the GOP for 118 of the last 132 years. It's a largely rural area that's about as ancestrally GOP as one can find in the Upper Midwest. IL-14 is a similar district. Denny Hastert's home district is also a traditional Republican stronghold. Both of these districts care more about parochial issues than social issues. The voters in IL-14 elected Republican Denny Hastert in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote; The voters in WI-08 elected Republican Mark Green in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote.

In 2006, WI-08 Democrats ran a feisty, rich allergist who outspent his GOP opponent en route to a 51/49 victory. In 2008, IL-14 Democrats are likely to run a feisty, rich scientist/businessman who will likely outspend his GOP opponent en route to a_______. That sentence will be finished by choice of the presidential nominees, the situation in Iraq, and other, intangible factors.

I wouldn't blithely knock this race off the radar simply because it R+4. This isn't a die-hard partisan area like TX-22 or CA-50--- voters here care more about the price of grain than they do about guns, gays, and god.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know why you're trying to convince me.  We'll find out soon enough.  I still don't have my House races list ready anyway (and won't for a few months), so I have no sleepers (or awakers) yet.

[MarkWarner08]

I don't know why you're trying to convince me.  We'll find out soon enough.  I still don't have my House races list ready anyway (and won't for a few months), so I have no sleepers (or awakers) yet.

I'm actually trying to convince myself.   I've got this House race bet with a friend and I'm pegging this race as a sleeper. I was hoping some of the people on the forum would give me some reason not to place it in that category.

[Mr.Phips]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me.  Should be an interesting primary.

Interesting point.  Let me elucidate why I think IL-14 will be competitive.  In 2004, IL-14 voted 55-44 for Bush; In 2004, WI-08 voted 55-44 for Bush. Since 1872, this seat had been held by the GOP for 118 of the last 132 years. It's a largely rural area that's about as ancestrally GOP as one can find in the Upper Midwest. IL-14 is a similar district. Denny Hastert's home district is also a traditional Republican stronghold. Both of these districts care more about parochial issues than social issues. The voters in IL-14 elected Republican Denny Hastert in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote; The voters in WI-08 elected Republican Mark Green in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote.

In 2006, WI-08 Democrats ran a feisty, rich allergist who outspent his GOP opponent en route to a 51/49 victory. In 2008, IL-14 Democrats are likely to run a feisty, rich scientist/businessman who will likely outspend his GOP opponent en route to a_______. That sentence will be finished by choice of the presidential nominees, the situation in Iraq, and other, intangible factors.

I wouldn't blithely knock this race off the radar simply because it R+4. This isn't a die-hard partisan area like TX-22 or CA-50--- voters here care more about the price of grain than they do about guns, gays, and god.

IL-14 is more Republican than WI-08 is.  WI-08 actually voted for Clinton in 1996 and came very close to going for Dukakis in 1988.  IL-14 is trending Democratic, but not enough for it to be as competitive as WI-08.

[MarkWarner08]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me.  Should be an interesting primary.

Interesting point.  Let me elucidate why I think IL-14 will be competitive.  In 2004, IL-14 voted 55-44 for Bush; In 2004, WI-08 voted 55-44 for Bush. Since 1872, this seat had been held by the GOP for 118 of the last 132 years. It's a largely rural area that's about as ancestrally GOP as one can find in the Upper Midwest. IL-14 is a similar district. Denny Hastert's home district is also a traditional Republican stronghold. Both of these districts care more about parochial issues than social issues. The voters in IL-14 elected Republican Denny Hastert in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote; The voters in WI-08 elected Republican Mark Green in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote.

In 2006, WI-08 Democrats ran a feisty, rich allergist who outspent his GOP opponent en route to a 51/49 victory. In 2008, IL-14 Democrats are likely to run a feisty, rich scientist/businessman who will likely outspend his GOP opponent en route to a_______. That sentence will be finished by choice of the presidential nominees, the situation in Iraq, and other, intangible factors.

I wouldn't blithely knock this race off the radar simply because it R+4. This isn't a die-hard partisan area like TX-22 or CA-50--- voters here care more about the price of grain than they do about guns, gays, and god.

IL-14 is more Republican than WI-08 is.  WI-08 actually voted for Clinton in 1996 and came very close to going for Dukakis in 1988.  IL-14 is trending Democratic, but not enough for it to be as competitive as WI-08.

According the 2002 Almanac of American Politics, Clinton won 46% in WI-08 in 1996, Gore won 44% in 2000, and Kerry won 44% in 2004 in that district. AAS2002 notes Clinton won 41% in IL-14 in 1996, Gore won 42% in 2000, and Kerry won 44% in 2004. While Clinton won WI-08 in 1996, and not IL-14, it can be argued, based on recent electoral results, that the Illinois district is that one that's trending, ever so slightly, towards Democrats on the federal level.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This strikes me as a race where the Republican has a clear, definite advantage (Bush got 55% here, which is a pretty tall hurdle) but the right Democrat could make inroads with a strong campaign (or a GOP blunder).  Bill Foster doesn't seem like the right candidate here.

I'd rate this as Lean Republican; Slight Republican if Foster can post very strong fundraising numbers.

[muon2]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me.  Should be an interesting primary.

Interesting point.  Let me elucidate why I think IL-14 will be competitive.  In 2004, IL-14 voted 55-44 for Bush; In 2004, WI-08 voted 55-44 for Bush. Since 1872, this seat had been held by the GOP for 118 of the last 132 years. It's a largely rural area that's about as ancestrally GOP as one can find in the Upper Midwest. IL-14 is a similar district. Denny Hastert's home district is also a traditional Republican stronghold. Both of these districts care more about parochial issues than social issues. The voters in IL-14 elected Republican Denny Hastert in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote; The voters in WI-08 elected Republican Mark Green in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote.

In 2006, WI-08 Democrats ran a feisty, rich allergist who outspent his GOP opponent en route to a 51/49 victory. In 2008, IL-14 Democrats are likely to run a feisty, rich scientist/businessman who will likely outspend his GOP opponent en route to a_______. That sentence will be finished by choice of the presidential nominees, the situation in Iraq, and other, intangible factors.

I wouldn't blithely knock this race off the radar simply because it R+4. This isn't a die-hard partisan area like TX-22 or CA-50--- voters here care more about the price of grain than they do about guns, gays, and god.

It's really not a rural district, but it includes a lot of land that is rural. The population breakdown by county is roughly 60% Kane, 10% DuPage, 10% Kendall, 10% DeKalb, 10% west of DeKalb. DuPage is all suburban, Kane is mostly suburban high-growth wrapping around the old cities of Aurora and Elgin, and Kendall is the second fastest growing suburban county in the US. DeKalb is rural with a big university, and then it gets truly rural to the western end.

[MarkWarner08]

This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.

Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me.  Should be an interesting primary.

Interesting point.  Let me elucidate why I think IL-14 will be competitive.  In 2004, IL-14 voted 55-44 for Bush; In 2004, WI-08 voted 55-44 for Bush. Since 1872, this seat had been held by the GOP for 118 of the last 132 years. It's a largely rural area that's about as ancestrally GOP as one can find in the Upper Midwest. IL-14 is a similar district. Denny Hastert's home district is also a traditional Republican stronghold. Both of these districts care more about parochial issues than social issues. The voters in IL-14 elected Republican Denny Hastert in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote; The voters in WI-08 elected Republican Mark Green in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote.

In 2006, WI-08 Democrats ran a feisty, rich allergist who outspent his GOP opponent en route to a 51/49 victory. In 2008, IL-14 Democrats are likely to run a feisty, rich scientist/businessman who will likely outspend his GOP opponent en route to a_______. That sentence will be finished by choice of the presidential nominees, the situation in Iraq, and other, intangible factors.

I wouldn't blithely knock this race off the radar simply because it R+4. This isn't a die-hard partisan area like TX-22 or CA-50--- voters here care more about the price of grain than they do about guns, gays, and god.

It's really not a rural district, but it includes a lot of land that is rural. The population breakdown by county is roughly 60% Kane, 10% DuPage, 10% Kendall, 10% DeKalb, 10% west of DeKalb. DuPage is all suburban, Kane is mostly suburban high-growth wrapping around the old cities of Aurora and Elgin, and Kendall is the second fastest growing suburban county in the US. DeKalb is rural with a big university, and then it gets truly rural to the western end.

Thanks for the insights. So this is more of an exurban district than a truly farm based district?

[muon2]

It's really not a rural district, but it includes a lot of land that is rural. The population breakdown by county is roughly 60% Kane, 10% DuPage, 10% Kendall, 10% DeKalb, 10% west of DeKalb. DuPage is all suburban, Kane is mostly suburban high-growth wrapping around the old cities of Aurora and Elgin, and Kendall is the second fastest growing suburban county in the US. DeKalb is rural with a big university, and then it gets truly rural to the western end.

Thanks for the insights. So this is more of an exurban district than a truly farm based district?

It's really not a farm district except for all the land on the map. Farm occupations make up only about 1% of the workforce.

There is a great deal of exurban growth and the district is estimated to have about 778K people in 2006, the largest in IL. Many of the fastest growing communities in IL are in the district.

The older cities and suburbs in the eastern end of the district have significant minority populations giving the district a 22% estimated Hispanic population. The 2006 median family income in the district is just over 70K with about 8% below the poverty level and 11% making over 150K.

[socaldem]

This strikes me as a race where the Republican has a clear, definite advantage (Bush got 55% here, which is a pretty tall hurdle) but the right Democrat could make inroads with a strong campaign (or a GOP blunder).  Bill Foster doesn't seem like the right candidate here.

I'd rate this as Lean Republican; Slight Republican if Foster can post very strong fundraising numbers.

I agree.  Foster (based on what I've seen on his website) doesn't seem of the caliber that could very easily overcome the Democrats' registration disadvantage there.

That said, if Jim Oberweis is the GOP nominee in this district, I suspect that he will have some difficulty winning over moderate GOPers and the significant Latino minority in the district will have a boogeyman against whom they may very well rally.  If he wins, he may run into difficulty retaining the seat.  (See: ex-Rep. Dornan, Bob and Rep. Sanchez, Loretta.)