1916: Roosevelt Runs

[Robespierre's Jaw]

What if....Former President Roosevelt ran as an independent candidate in 1916? How would the election turn out? Discuss with maps.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Roosevelt and Hughes split the vote like Taft and TR did. Wilson wins close to his 1912.

Sorry...too lazy to make a map right now!

[Lincoln Republican]

Wilson was on the downhill slide by 1916.  I doubt very much that he could come close to his 1912 showing.

Nevertheless, Wilson wins by a larger margin in 1916 with Roosevelt as a candidate than without Roosevelt as a candidate.

Hughes was a much stronger Republican candidate in 1916 than Taft was in 1912, and Roosevelt would not have the same impact in 1916 that he had in 1912.

Roosevelt was 4 years further removed from public life in 1916.

Wilson                289 (instead of 276)
Hughes              220 (instead of 255)
Roosevelt            22

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wilson wins

[jokerman]

Why would Roosevelt run against progressive Hughes?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Allan Benson was the socialist candidate in 1916, not Debs.

Also, there is no way that Roosevelt would win against Hughes - especially on a third party ticket (he reported to have given up on third party politics after 1912) - a better question would be what if 1916: Wilson v Roosevelt with Hughes as his running mate. Much more likely.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Wilson: 304
Hughes: 108
Roosevelt: 119

[gorkay]

Hughes being a "progresssive" is news to me. He made some feints that way in the campaign to woo voters who went Bull Moose in 1912, but he was pretty conservative deep-down. That's why the Progressive party convention went into revolt in 1916 when TR suggested they nominate Hughes.
TR didn't much like Hughes, either... he called him "Wilson with whiskers." But by 1916, TR had realized that he would never get back to the White House as a third-party candidate and was laying the groundwork to run for the Republican nomination in 1920. So he endorsed Hughes, but I doubt that he was unhappy when he lost.
Another factor was that, in 1916, Roosevelt was suffering a temporary downswing in personal popularity because he was much more hawkish on the war than the American public. The Wilson campaign even used his hawkishness against Hughes in the campaign... "Wilson and peace with honor, or Hughes with Roosevelt and war?" was one of their slogans.
The upshot: if TR had run, he wouldn't have done nearly as well as in 1912, and would have increased Wilson's margin of victory in both the PV and EV.