Kansas...

[Joe Biden 2020]

In 2008, the Sunflower State went 57-42 for McCain.  In Congress, this state has 2 Republican Senators with Democrat Governor Kathleen Sebelius taking over Republican Sen. Brownback's seat in 2010 who will probably take the Governor's Mansion.  In the House, Kansas currently has 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat and was 2-2 in the 110th Congress.  Nancy Boyda of District 2 narrowly lost re-election in this district anchored by Topeka.

Its very unlikely for a long while, but it probably has a better chance than its southern neighbor.  It possibly could be influenced by the moderate state of Missouri and the relatively liberal Kansas City metro area.  Wichita is pretty conservative, but probably could be swayed, and Topeka narrowly went to McCain by about a half a percent.

What do you think?

[The Ex-Factor]

I suppose it could happen sometime in the far, far off future, but as it stands now Kansas would need an injection of upscale liberal urbanites and/or minorities and that's not going to happen anytime soon. The in-state population is so historically rural, conservative, and Republican (even Kansas City, or at least Johnson County is one of the most Republican metropolitan areas int he country) that it's incredibly hard to conceive it going Democratic ever. Couple that with the fact that it hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1939 and it's one of the last states I'd ever imagine switching over. I agree though, it has a better chance of going Democratic than Oklahoma, but that's not saying much at all

[memphis]

I agree though, it has a better chance of going Democratic than Oklahoma, but that's not saying much at all

Solid R state.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Historically, Kansas has been one of the most solid GOP states, going back 80+ years.  I do't see that changing anytime soon.

[Matt Damon™]

Mint Thinks that if real estate agents push Kansas's rural character and folk culture we could see a similar  political and cultural transformation like what happened with Vermont, New Hampshire and rural maine..

[pbrower2a]

I suppose it could happen sometime in the far, far off future, but as it stands now Kansas would need an injection of upscale liberal urbanites and/or minorities and that's not going to happen anytime soon. The in-state population is so historically rural, conservative, and Republican (even Kansas City, or at least Johnson County is one of the most Republican metropolitan areas int he country) that it's incredibly hard to conceive it going Democratic ever. Couple that with the fact that it hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1939 and it's one of the last states I'd ever imagine switching over. I agree though, it has a better chance of going Democratic than Oklahoma, but that's not saying much at all

But Kansas used to be the home of Republican moderates such as Dole and Kassebaum. That's over.

Kansas could conceivably vote for Obama in 2012 if everything goes right for Obama -- by the narrowest margin of any State except perhaps Oklahoma in an LBJ-like landslide (the Republican candidate getting only Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and NE-03). Kansas has drifted not only quantitatively but also qualitatively to the Right.

[Matt Damon™]

Kansas could go dem for Harold Ford Jr...

[Mint]

Mint Thinks that if real estate agents push Kansas's rural character and folk culture we could see a similar  political and cultural transformation like what happened with Vermont, New Hampshire and rural maine..

It's not that implausible. Kansas actually has a lot of very desirable wilderness despite the 'flat state' reputation, low taxes, low crime, etc. (Topeka itself is very affordable compared to most cities). Plus Witchita is actually has some pretty good museums and other cultural attractions. Maybe a better comparison for Kansas becoming more Democratic would be a state like Colorado, which used to be solid-R for a long time but has gradually has become more moderate.

[Husker]

If Kansas split its votes like Nebraska, they could give 1 possibly 2 EV's on occasion. The northeast part of the state has Lawrence(liberal college town), KC Kansas (union/minority), and Topeka (state capital/bit more moderate than Wichita) so this CD could go democrat if KS were to follow Nebraska's lead.

Kansas has been a republican state for years, although it it has generally been less so than Nebraska (until this year) and in recent years has been less so than Oklahoma. There are more moderates and liberals in Kansas than one might think, but the conservative voice is strongest. Given time, that could change. Generally speaking though, Kansas is more moderate than Oklahoma and Nebraska is more moderate than Kansas. Missouri only appears more moderate than Kansas because of St. Louis and Kansas City. Take out those two and Missouri is much closer to Oklahoma politically.

[Person Man]

Husker is probably right. Kansas and Nebraska probably are pretty close to the national average for their population density. Perhaps if the KN population increased by 20%, with more Middle Class moving in to the cities and suburbs, Kansas and Nebraska could be competitive in 20 years. Kansas and Nebraska aren't like Tennessee or Kentucky, that will alway go R no matter how many people live there...

[Husker]

Husker is probably right. Kansas and Nebraska probably are pretty close to the national average for their population density. Perhaps if the KN population increased by 20%, with more Middle Class moving in to the cities and suburbs, Kansas and Nebraska could be competitive in 20 years. Kansas and Nebraska aren't like Tennessee or Kentucky, that will alway go R no matter how many people live there...

Yeah, if you play around with the population density tool on the NY Times election webpage, you'll notice that you eliminate the majority of our counties by 10 people per square mile. By 70 people per square mile, we are a blue state. Kansas, on the other hand, is still somewhat red. Our most GOP county at that density was Hall and it was 61.5% for McCain. In Kansas, Saline County was most GOP with 62.3% of the vote. You can find several counties in IN and OH with that population density that were substantially more GOP than that.

We also don't have many labor unions here, don't have a significant population of minorities, and the housing boom/crisis was never much of an issue here. We also have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. Last but not least, republicans have been the dominant party for decades. But as Thomas Frank points out, it has always been a battle between moderates and conservatives. Kansas is  more religiously and socially conservative than Nebraska as a general rule, so conservatives got the upper hand down there a bit more. But, there are many moderate republicans in both states and even a few left leaning ones like me. I know quite a few republicans who voted for Obama this time and the farther right the GOP goes, the more votes they lose in places like Lincoln, Omaha, Sioux Falls, and Fargo. Most people here aren't that liberal but the vast majority aren't exactly staunch right conservatives either. If you like Chuck Hagel, you'll like Nebraska republicans. For all the heat he got, there were still a lot of people here who loved him. 

[Smid]

Yeah, if you play around with the population density tool on the NY Times election webpage, you'll notice that you eliminate the majority of our counties by 10 people per square mile. By 70 people per square mile, we are a blue state. Kansas, on the other hand, is still somewhat red. Our most GOP county at that density was Hall and it was 61.5% for McCain. In Kansas, Saline County was most GOP with 62.3% of the vote. You can find several counties in IN and OH with that population density that were substantially more GOP than that.

This tool sounds intriguing. Where does one find it and exactly what does it do?

[Nhoj]

Yeah, if you play around with the population density tool on the NY Times election webpage, you'll notice that you eliminate the majority of our counties by 10 people per square mile. By 70 people per square mile, we are a blue state. Kansas, on the other hand, is still somewhat red. Our most GOP county at that density was Hall and it was 61.5% for McCain. In Kansas, Saline County was most GOP with 62.3% of the vote. You can find several counties in IN and OH with that population density that were substantially more GOP than that.

This tool sounds intriguing. Where does one find it and exactly what does it do?

this is what hes talking about i believe its got alot of interesting stuff.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/explorer.html

[Smid]

Yeah, if you play around with the population density tool on the NY Times election webpage, you'll notice that you eliminate the majority of our counties by 10 people per square mile. By 70 people per square mile, we are a blue state. Kansas, on the other hand, is still somewhat red. Our most GOP county at that density was Hall and it was 61.5% for McCain. In Kansas, Saline County was most GOP with 62.3% of the vote. You can find several counties in IN and OH with that population density that were substantially more GOP than that.

This tool sounds intriguing. Where does one find it and exactly what does it do?

this is what hes talking about i believe its got alot of interesting stuff.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/explorer.html

Cheers mate, most appreciated.

[Person Man]

This tool is bad ass... I've found the Bible Belt...the "Brorderlands" and "Nigguragua"...

[pbrower2a]

There's much to be said about the NY Times' "Electoral Explorer". One is that with communities whose population density is up to 1754 persons per square mile, Obama and McCain virtually tied: Obama won 49.838 million votes and McCain won 49.899 million votes. That is in 3075 counties and "independent cities", Virginia having the vast majority of them in America. There are but 66 other communities with greater population density, but Obama won those by a huge margin: 67% to 32%, or roughly 17 million to 8 million. Among those are such places as Charlottesville, Lexington,  Fredericksburg, and Colonial Heights in Virginia -- but even if they are small towns they are densely populated. Others include the five Boroughs of New York and some surrounding counties in New York and New Jersey (but oddly not Connecticut!) and such independent cities as San Francisco, Denver,  St. Louis, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Richmond, and counties containing Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, St. Paul, Indianapolis, Detroit, Cleveland, Columbus (Ohio), Cincinnati, and Louisville, as well as the District of Columbia and nearby Arlington, Virginia.    Among those communities, only Staten Island (barely), Orange County (CA -- barely), Cobb County, Georgia (barely), Tarrant County (TX -- by about 10%), and tiny Colonial Heights VA went for McCain. Sixty-six county-level communities negated the vote of 3075 county-level communities.

To give an idea of what communities are like around that divide, the ten communities with population densities between 1754 and 2009 people per square mile are Tarrant County (TX -- the "Fort Worth" side of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex"), Cobb and Clayton Counties in Georgia (suburban Atlanta), Westchester County (NY), Hennepin County (MN -- Minneapolis), Montgomery County, MD, St. Louis County (MO -- but note that it does not include the city of St. Louis itself), Jefferson Co., KY (Louisville),  Hamilton Co., OH (Cincinnati), and the small independent city of Fredericksburg, Virginia. Except for Tarrant and Cobb Counties, these all went for Obama -- even tiny Fredericksburg. 

Population density determines the cost of government services. Denser populations require more costly solutions for transportation -- mass transit systems and wider roads, the latter to be built or expanded only at huge cost -- real-estate acquisition. Giant cities are costly places to live, and such government employees as teachers and cops must be paid well enough that competing activities don't price cities out of their services. In rural areas, teaching is a supplement  to family income, often from farming. Few occupations that require professional education can attract teachers. In giant cities many teachers find commissioned sales or the tourist trade more lucrative and give up teaching; teachers must be paid well lest they live in poverty by local standards. Cities must pay cops well enough and create enough of an esprit de corps that keeps them from better serving gangsters than the public. Most big cities need a set of police just to watch the police.

The American Right has frequently lashed out against Big Government (except for military expenditures nationwide and farm subsidies if it is in rural areas). But urban America depends upon Big Government for transportation, law enforcement, and education. Well-paid people who got their educations in government-run or government-subsidized schools (typically State universities) or earn their incomes from government activities know what made them and the sources of their income. If one is a physician and many of one's patients are Medicaid clients, then one might vote Democratic out of self-interest. Even if one is a merchant who relies on TANF  (formerly known as Food Stamps) one might have good cause not to turn against welfare. Note well, also, that cuts at the State university are off the table if one expects ones kids to need those schools.

Income used to be a fairly strong determiner of whether one voted Democratic or Republican. To be sure, the poorest county (if one uses "percentage persons living in poverty")  in America, Ziebach County (SD -- ignore the German-sounding name; it's an Indian Reservation) voted for Obama. It (51% poverty rate) voted for Obama, as did Todd County, South Dakota (also the Rez) and Issaquena County, Mississippi (the Delta),  its neighbor East Carroll Parish in Louisiana, and Starr County, Texas on the Mexican border.  OK -- Obama did well among Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans. But Owsley County, Kentucky, 46% of whose families live below the poverty line, voted nearly 76-22 for McCain, as did Martin County, Kentucky, 42% of whose residents live in official poverty. Owsley and Martin Counties are white.

The two richest counties in median income (Loudoun and Fairfax Counties in Virginia) both voted for Obama.

I suppose that if by some GOP miracle all poor people would suddenly turn white, then the GOP would win every conceivable nationwide election henceforth for a considerable time.

Religion? Places with more than the national average of Roman Catholics (25%?)  voted for Obama 59-40%. Much of that overlaps with Hispanic populations, although some places with very high percentages of Catholics went for McCain (Cajun country in Louisiana).

Southern Baptists?  Oh, is this telling! Only two counties with Southern Baptist majorities (Pike County, Mississippi, 52%; Hancock County, Kentucky, 55%) voted for Obama -- barely! Counties with 50% or higher Southern Baptist populations (79 counties) voted for McCain 69%-30%. In the 2042 county-level communities with the largest percentages of Southern Baptists -- that's a mere 1%!, Obama and McCain break even. (Oddly, one of those counties is Cook County, Illinois, which includes Chicago but has slightly more than 1% of its population as Southern Baptists -- and we know how Chicago voted).  Flip that and Obama wins 57% to 42% in 1099 counties in which fewer than 1% of all people are Southern Baptists.

 

[HAnnA MArin County]

It possibly could be influenced by the moderate state of Missouri and the relatively liberal Kansas City metro area. 

I don't really think Kansas is influenced by Missouri. Save for Jackson County (which includes Kansas City) and the Kansas City suburban counties, the Missouri counties that border Kansas are in Southwest Missouri which is the most Republican part of the state. However, I will agree that the Kansas City Metropolitan Area does help Democrats increase their margins in Kansas. 

I think Obama overperformed in Kansas simply because of his roots there where his mother was born, and ex-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was very popular in the state and she was an early endorser of Obama during the primaries.

I'm not too familiar with Kansas politics but I do know that it has been a GOP bastion for quite some time now. If I had to give my own personal take on why it's so Republican, I'd say it's because most of the state is predominantly rural and these rural counties are mostly White and socially conservative (remember - this is the state of the notorious Westboro Baptist Church, the nuts who go around and protest at military funerals because of the country's tolerance of gays). I'm not comparing all social conservatives in the state to these picketing idiots, but I think the moral issues (God guns and gays) are what drives Kansas so solidly in the GOP column. Only in rare circumstances do you have cases where center-left Democrats like Kathleen Sebelius can win election in the Sunflower State.

Some history:
The last Democratic U.S. Senator from the state to be elected was in 1932. Now, both U.S. Senators (Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts) are Republicans as are three out of the state's four delegates in the U.S. House of Representatives. And while most of its statewide offices are held by Democrats, it has one of the most Republican state legislatures in the country.

Given all this, I just can't fathom Kansas going Democratic at the presidential election unless we have another Democratic landslide like 1932-36 and/or 1964, and even then, the margin of victory would be extremely close. Even if the KC Metro Area expands, it wouldn't be enough to overcome the center-right Topeka and Wichita and the extremely conservative rural counties.