Wales 2007; results thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Coalition Map:



More maps based on the regional results likely soon; at least three in fact. They will be:

1. % "Old Left" (Labour, SLP, CPB, Ind Lab Indies... I think there was only one, but there might have been another...)
2. % "New Left" (Greenies, various tiny Trottish parties)
3. % Far Right & Anti-Devolution (UKIP, BNP, WCP, EDems and so on)

I may also combine the Old and New Left numbers for a fourth map. After all, the only reason that Hart didn't face re-count after re-count (ala Hutt) was because a lot of list Green voters also voted for her.

While a majority of Plaid's voters lean Leftwards (at least within a Welsh context) a very large minority most certainly do not and the party's electoral appeal is very different to the parties above. Remarks like that could also be made of the LibDems (though not to the same extent).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This map probably represents the geographical pattern of what could be thought of as active opposition to Cardiff Bay. There's quite a lot of it, isn't there? Something that should worry the political/cultural/media establishment but which doesn't seem to have done...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[afleitch]

[quote author=Al the Sleepy Bear link=topic=56817.msg1263485#msg1263485  There's  Something that should worry the political/cultural/media establishment but which doesn't seem to have done...
[/quote]

I've always thought that for a nation, devolved or otherwise, Wales lacks a national media. Scotland has it's national populist dailys and it's highbrow broadsheets which often set the agenda for Holyrood. Wales has also, I've been told, suffered from the loss of HTV into nothing more than a branded arm of ITV which S4C doesn't make up for.

And having a Cardiff dominated media proabbly wouldn't help! Scotland benefits somewhat from having its media base in Glasgow, far away from the 'village' so to speak.

[Harry Hayfield]

This map probably represents the geographical pattern of what could be thought of as active opposition to Cardiff Bay. There's quite a lot of it, isn't there? Something that should worry the political/cultural/media establishment but which doesn't seem to have done...

Not really, that's about the same map as we had at the referendum in 1997. Western Wales strongly in favour, Eastern Wales opposed, South Wales Valleys in favour, Outside Valleys opposed.

[Harry Hayfield]

Nice to see Brecon and Radnor still having some vestige of Labour about itself!

[Harry Hayfield]

There's been something about the 2007 results that I still can't understand (and am hoping that someone might explain).

Second Place: Con 15 Lab 10 Lib Dem 6 Plaid 6 Ind 3 (Marginals: Con 8 Plaid 2 Lab 2 Ind 2 Lib Dem 2)

Does this mean that the Conservatives are more likely to make gains at the next elections than Plaid are?

[afleitch]

Does this mean that the Conservatives are more likely to make gains at the next elections than Plaid are?

If the coalition flounders then yes; Labour can probably afford to take more 'knocks' than PC and would suffer less...problems internally than a 'tainted' PC would experience.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Welsh Labour's internal divisions (the more serious ones anyway) are known to just about anyone who might have any interest in knowing about them. There's a tendency of the Taffia (which likes one wing (Rhodri's) very much, but hates the other main wing more than it hates any other political group in Wales) to over-simplify things and smear those who they don't like o/c.

Plaid's internal divisions are much more complicated and are (almost) a complete mystery to everyone who's not a Nat. There are at least three major factions within the Plaid group in Cardiff Bay; probably a few more than that actually (no... there's at least four. Lord Elis-Thomas is a one-man faction in his own right) and only Plaid's Left wing (ie; those AM's that spoke out against a deal with the Tories) is easily understood. Unlike Labour there wasn't much public debate within the party before the deal with Labour was agreed upon.

As far as the next Assembly election goes... not much can be safely predicted until we find out who Rhodri's successor as Labour leader is.

[minionofmidas]

Could you also make an Unholy Alliance (PC+Con+LD) map?