convention deadlock

[© tweed]

what are the odds (in %) that one (or both) parties has one of the nominations come down to the convention?  and for which party is it more likely?

personally, I'd enjoy such a scenario so much that I'd sacrifice a Democratic victory in order to see  a convention standoff.

[True Democrat]

I'd give the Democrats a 10% chance and the Republicans a 20% chance.

[SPC]

Republicans probably have a 25% chance
Democrats probably have a 5% chance

If there is a decision made by the convention, we might even have a Republican nominee that isn't even in the race yet (and I'm not talknig about Fred Thompson). It's possible that the convention may draft Mark Sanford to be the nominee. Just speculating.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't know what %age probability to assign to it, but the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of one candidate winning a majority of the delegates during the primary season.  If nobody does win a majority, I'm guessing that there will be tremendous pressure placed on the other candidates to close ranks around whoever won a plurality of the votes/delegates.  There will be accusations that if they don't do so, they're "defying the will of the people", or something like that.  In any case, the party leadership will try as hard as they can to resolve all of this before the convention actually takes place, as both parties seem to have concluded that it's in their interest to decide on a nominee as early as possible.

[Erc]

Republicans probably have a 25% chance
Democrats probably have a 5% chance

If there is a decision made by the convention, we might even have a Republican nominee that isn't even in the race yet (and I'm not talknig about Fred Thompson). It's possible that the convention may draft Mark Sanford to be the nominee. Just speculating.

A deadlocked convention is a possibility, if a remote one.  But someone to arise in the last minute at the convention isn't going to happen.  The last time that happened and the candidate went onto win was probably Garfield in 1880 (who started off as John Sherman's campaign manager, so to speak, and didn't get a single delegate until at least the third ballot).  It certainly hasn't happened since 1924, at the latest.  And anyone who got selected at the convention without being in the public eye beforehand would be at a severe disadvantage in organization, name recognition, etc, unless he somehow managed to sweep the nation off of its feet at the convention.  The only real possibility for something like this happening would be the Democrats choosing Gore at a deadlocked convention in Denver...and considering how much of a two-man horse race that nomination is looking like, the possibility is extremely remote.

[StateBoiler]

Republicans probably have a 25% chance
Democrats probably have a 5% chance

If there is a decision made by the convention, we might even have a Republican nominee that isn't even in the race yet (and I'm not talknig about Fred Thompson). It's possible that the convention may draft Mark Sanford to be the nominee. Just speculating.

A deadlocked convention is a possibility, if a remote one.  But someone to arise in the last minute at the convention isn't going to happen.  The last time that happened and the candidate went onto win was probably Garfield in 1880 (who started off as John Sherman's campaign manager, so to speak, and didn't get a single delegate until at least the third ballot).  It certainly hasn't happened since 1924, at the latest.  And anyone who got selected at the convention without being in the public eye beforehand would be at a severe disadvantage in organization, name recognition, etc, unless he somehow managed to sweep the nation off of its feet at the convention.  The only real possibility for something like this happening would be the Democrats choosing Gore at a deadlocked convention in Denver...and considering how much of a two-man horse race that nomination is looking like, the possibility is extremely remote.

Another reason I think that is unlikely to happen in the future. From a populist perspective, it would be a huge turnoff to independently-minded voters, in that a person that did not receive any votes in caucuses and primaries and yet got placed on a ballot.

The only case I could see it being warranted is if the nominee presumptive died before the convention, and the party's central dictators did not want the guy that finished second.

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Me too. I think a split Republican convention would be far more fun than the Democrats just cause the RP normally is so coalesced to one viewpoint and never say anything bad about other party members.

If we had a split convention next year for example, think of what a staunch Midwest conservative would have to say in a speech about Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani...on national TV.

[Boris]

personally, I'd enjoy such a scenario so much that I'd sacrifice a Democratic victory in order to see  a convention standoff.

I think I would too. If it's any indicator, the fictional Democratic National Convention deadlock in The West Wing was very entertaining. And the Democrats won in the end!

Although it's far more likely to happen with the Republicans, which could theoretically feature a three way standoff depending upon Thompson's electability. Clinton will probably end up pretty much sweeping the Democratic primaries barring some sort of fuckup on her part.

[cp]

In all fairness, the Democratic candidate on the West Wing only won because the actor playing his VP died mid-season. The directors, rightly, thought that losing both the election and the VP would be too heartbreaking, so they switched it up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Is the 1976 Republican convention considered "deadlocked"?

[agcatter]

No.  Ford won on the first ballot by 60 or so delegate votes.

[BeagleBoy]

Odds of a Democratic convention deadlock: slim to none.

Odds of a Republican convention deadlock: slim to none.

[MODU]

Odds of a Democratic convention deadlock: slim to none.

Odds of a Republican convention deadlock: slim to none.

I'd go with slim for both.  Having half of the primaries on the same day/month is going to soften the trickle-down effect that the primaries had in the past, so there might not be a clear favorite after the primary results come out.  If that is the case, you can seen two candidates in each party fighting over the remaining states, quite possibly splitting them over the remaining few months.  That could lead to a convention actually being worth something (like the good ol' days).