Mexican State Elections (Guerrero)

[ag]

Yesterday the triennial mayoral and legislative elections were held in the south Mexican state of Guerrero. In the last few years this has become a stronghold of the leftist PRD. However, this time the PRD had a falling out with its usual junior partners (Convergencia and PT), who ran their own candidates (joint or separate) in most places. The split was more significant then one could have expected, as it is, in fact, a reflecton of the big internal split in the PRD: the followers of the ex presidential candidate Lopez Obrador are on a defensive within the party, and when they can't control the local party nomination, they frequently use the junior leftist lines instead.

To make the long story short, the result of this has been a stunning comeback by the good old PRI in the state, which may be indicative of what we should expect in the congressional midterms next July. W/ well under 40% of the vote  PRI  even managed to take out the PRD uberstronghold of Acapulco!

Anyway, according to the preliminary results of the mayoral elections we have a pretty clean sweep by PRI of the largest/most famous municipalities in the state

1. Acapulco (the largest city in the state): PRI gain from PRD (PRD is close third, Convergencia/PT - second)
2. Chilpancingo (state capital): PRI hold
3. Iguala PRI gain from PRD
4. Taxco PRI gain from PAN
5. Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo PRI gain from PRD

Overall, the total number of municipalities governed by the parties will likely be (some counts are still incomplete):

PRI 45 (+12)
PRD 24 (-16, but previously it was in alliance w/ Convergencia and PT)
PAN 4 (+1, but all 4 are minor villages - the loss of Taxco is not compensated)
Convergencia+PT 3 (+3)
Convergencia 2 (+2)
PVEM 2 (+1)
Alternativa 1 (+1)

PRI also made substantial gains in the state congress - PRD is clearly loosing its majority, but we'd have to wait for PR distribution to know, if PRI emerges as the largest party (likely so).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any other elections in Mexico soon [qm]

[Verily]

Any other elections in Mexico soon [qm]

Elections to the state congress in Coahuila on 19 October and municipal elections in Hidalgo on 9 November.

[ag]

Coahuila is a PRI landslide of historic proportions. PRI ran its own candidacy in 18 out of 20 districts and in two districts it was allied with a local state-level party (UDC). All of them won by huge margins (at least 2:1). The PR (a chunk of the seats are alocated by PR) is equally stupefying. W/ 98.88% of the precincts reporting we have:

PRI alone 59.06%
PRI/UDC coalition 7.32%
UDC alone 3.32%
______________________________
PAN 18.32%
PRD 3.68%
______________________________
PVEM 1.96%
Panal 1.76%
PT 1.71%
PCC (a minor local party)  1.37%
Convergencia 0.46%

The PR operates w/ the usual 2% threshold, which should give PRD a single seat and a few seats to PAN. But none of this will matter much: PRI will have a controlling stake, and their UCD allies will, in addition to the two coalition candidates directly elected, get, at least, a couple of PR representatives, which, probably, implies that PRI/UCD together will have 2/3 of the local Congress membership. Landslide.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

a PRI landslide of historic proportions.

There are certain sentences that I hope never to see. That's one of them.

[ag]

a PRI landslide of historic proportions.

There are certain sentences that I hope never to see. That's one of them.

Honestly, if nothing changes soon, you are likely to see it again after the congressional midterms next July.  Truth be told: PRI now has unusually competent leadership, whereas PAN is lacklustre, and PRD is badly splintered.

[Hash]

a PRI landslide of historic proportions.

There are certain sentences that I hope never to see. That's one of them.

[ag]

Municipals in Hidalgo state today.  As expected, a big PRI win. Results are still preliminary, and I don't have time to really analyze them, but PRI took everything but villages (Pachuca, Tula, Tizayuca, Tulancingo - pick-up from PRD, Actopan, Ixmiquilpan - pick-up from PRD, and pretty much everything else that matters and most of what doesn't).

Overall, it seems PRI (alone or w/ Panal) is ahead in 53 municipalities (+15 compared to 2005)
PRD is ahead in 15 (-9 compared to 2005, but this tim none significant enough for me to have heard about)
PAN is ahead in 9 (-9 compared to 2005; one largeish municipality: Huejutla, which they pick-up from PRD; and one small but reasonably well-known tourist destination: Mineral del Monte)
PVEM is ahead in 5 municipalities (+3, all seem to be small fish)
PT is ahead in 1 (-1)
Convergencia is ahead in 1 (+1)

At least 75% of state residents will be living in PRI-governed municipalities.

If things continue like they do now, next year we are in for a PRI landslide at the midterms.