Allen (D-ME) Raises $1.1 million and others

[Conan]

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/franken-outpaces-coleman-in-2nd-quarter-2007-07-10.html

Rep. Allen raised 1.1 mill for his race against Sen. Collins. That shows he's going to be able to make this a real race. He has $1.7 mill CoH.

Also check out some 2008 challengers:

"    Among House candidates announcing numbers or filing yesterday, state Sen. Andy Harris (R) raised $175,000 for his primary challenge to centrist Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.), Democratic attorney Mike Smith raised $150,000 for his race against Rep. Ric Keller (R-Fla.), and environmental activist Will Shafroth (D) raised almost $300,000 for his run at Rep. Mark Udall’s (D-Colo.) open seat. Udall is running for Senate.

Rep. Tom Reynolds’s (R-N.Y.) opponent, Democrat Jon Powers, raised $110,000 in his report, filed Sunday. Democrat David Nacht raised $160,000 for a race against freshman Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Mich.). And Democrat Bill McCamley raised $140,000 for a race against Rep. Steve Pearce (R-N.M.).

Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Ohio) raised about $330,000 for his 2008 campaign.    "

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rep. Allen raised 1.1 mill for his race against Sen. Collins. That shows he's going to be able to make this a real race.

Blair Hull spent $28.7 million to get 10.8% of the vote in his 2004 Senate race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The difference is that Blair Hull had a political scandle he was mired in concerning his ex-wife, I think that is the difference here. But I think Collins is going be tough to beat.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Okay, let me choose a different example, then.

Tony Sanchez spent $76 million to lose his 2002 Gubernatorial race by 17%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clearly, money raised is a factor, but there are other factors to be taken into account.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Clearly, money raised is a factor, but there are other factors to be taken into account.

That's my point, and the biggest factor here is an approval rating for Collins in the seventies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see ME going Democratic on the senatoral side anytime soon, unless Dems win the electoral votes by a big margin. I see CO, NH, MN, OR, and VA as the more likely opportunities for the Dems.

[opebo]

I don't see ME going Democratic on the senatoral side anytime soon, unless Dems win the electoral votes by a big margin. I see CO, NH, MN, OR, and VA as the more likely opportunities for the Dems.

Well, Maine will go Democratic quite handily on the senatorial side as soon as the current Senators retire.  But until then it is difficult.

[Padfoot]

Clearly, money raised is a factor, but there are other factors to be taken into account.

That's my point, and the biggest factor here is an approval rating for Collins in the seventies.

Just like approval ratings for Linc Chafee were the biggest factor in 2006?  Also could you cite the most recent poll supporting this claim?  IIRC the last one I saw had her in the low 50s.  I believe Sen. Snowe typically has much higher approval ratings than Sen. Collins.

[Aizen]

Snowe is much more popular than Collins. Collins will still be tough to knock out but she's not as powerful as Snowe.

[Smash255]

Snowe is quite popular and won't be easy to knock off, but we might see a bit of a Lincoln chafee syndrome.  Granted while Maine has become a strong Democratic state its not near Rhode Island strong yet, but Collins is also not as liberal as Chafee, and Snowe is further to the left than Collins as well.  Also Tom Allen is the most credible challenger she could face and a very popular Congressman in his own right.  A popular Congressman in a small state like Maine would generally be a bigger threat than a popular Congressman from a big state in a Senate race, since Allen already represents half the state in Congress.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Snowe is much more popular than Collins. Collins will still be tough to knock out but she's not as powerful as Snowe.

According to the only polls I've seen with both Collins and Snowe (SurveyUSA), "much more popular" means "slightly more popular."  See below.

Just like approval ratings for Linc Chafee were the biggest factor in 2006?  Also could you cite the most recent poll supporting this claim?  IIRC the last one I saw had her in the low 50s.  I believe Sen. Snowe typically has much higher approval ratings than Sen. Collins.

Lincoln Chafee's approval ratings were never even close to those of Collins.  In fact, the last Survey USA poll done with them both had Collins as the fourth most popular Senator in the nation, while Chafee was the 79th most popular.

SURVEY USA, Released Nov. 22, 2006

1	ME	Snowe, Olympia	R	Sr	79%	18%	3%
4	ME	Collins, Susan	R	Jr	73%	23%	5%
79	RI	Chafee, Lincoln	R	Jr	51%	44%	6%

That's a more than forty point difference in net approvals.

A popular Congressman in a small state like Maine would generally be a bigger threat than a popular Congressman from a big state in a Senate race, since Allen already represents half the state in Congress.

Taking into account only the more Democratic ME-01, where Allen is the incumbent Congressman:

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I'm not sure exactly what ME-01 doesn't know about Tom Allen and Susan Collins now that they will know by November 2008.  The polling data bodes incredibly poorly for the incredibly well known but not-popular-enough Allen.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And I suppose it is further worth noting that Kerry won Maine by 9, but won Rhode Island by 21.  That 12 point disparity more than makes up the margin that Lincoln Chafee won by, even taking into account his significantly lower approvals.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't see Susan Collins losing reelection, her popularity will prevent that. But a wave election like last time that moved that VA/Webb senate race to the Dems will shift alot of seats currently less vulnerable to the Democratic side like Oregon and Maine.  I see a net gain of 2-3 seats for the Dems. It would be a wave election otherwise.