Will TN-05 flip before the end of the decade?
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Question: Will TN-05 flip before the end of the decade?
#1
Yes		  
#2
No		  
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Total Voters: 26

Author Topic: Will TN-05 flip before the end of the decade?  (Read 444 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: June 18, 2024, 03:30:00 PM »
Will TN-05 flip before the end of the decade? Only Trump+11 and trending left pretty quickly due to educated suburbs in and around Nashville.
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2024, 05:45:56 PM »
might give a scare to Republicans but I expect it won't flip, or if it does, then it almost immediately gets redrawn to be even redder.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #2 on: June 18, 2024, 05:57:45 PM »
Maybe if Taylor Swift tells her fans to move there AND some factories there unionize.
Plus a blue wave year.
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Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver
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« Reply #3 on: June 18, 2024, 06:35:53 PM »
Not under these hideous lines, but it could get close in a Trump midterm. If it gets even a little too close for comfort, Tennessee Republicans (who are some of the most evil ones out there) will attempt a mid-decade redistrict to gerrymander it even more. I'm sure they could find legal avenues to make that happen through changing laws and having partisan courts uphold them.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2024, 01:08:57 AM »
No. By 2040 (in present borders) - may be...
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2024, 01:25:50 AM »
Places like OK-05 and SC-01 flipped in 2018 so I could totally see it happening.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2024, 11:56:56 AM »
Quote from: smoltchanov on June 19, 2024, 01:08:57 AM
No. By 2040 (in present borders) - may be...

It doesn't take 16 years to shift 11 points left.  It swung 6 points left from 2016 to 2020 alone.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2024, 04:53:30 PM »
No, if its in danger of flipping it'll be redrawn
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TomC
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2024, 05:15:05 PM »
TN-07 will flip before 05. It’s got much of the progressive urban core in Nashville, a significant African American constituency in North Nashville, Clarksville is a growing college town, Williamson County margins are moving closer (though not close yet).
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2024, 05:18:17 PM »
Quote from: TomC on June 24, 2024, 05:15:05 PM
TN-07 will flip before 05. It’s got much of the progressive urban core in Nashville, a significant African American constituency in North Nashville, Clarksville is a growing college town, Williamson County margins are moving closer (though not close yet).

TN-07 is to the right of TN-05, also most of the left-trending suburbs are in 5.
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2024, 11:12:23 PM »
Quote from: TomC on June 24, 2024, 05:15:05 PM
TN-07 will flip before 05. It’s got much of the progressive urban core in Nashville, a significant African American constituency in North Nashville, Clarksville is a growing college town, Williamson County margins are moving closer (though not close yet).

TN-7 isn't as potentially interesting as it looks.  It actually hasn't swung significantly left at all and is more simply polarized.  It's TN-5 that has most of the rapidly left-trending suburbs (and its portion of ancestrally GOP Southern Davidson County is trending way faster than any of the fully suburban counties).  TN-7's portion of Davidson County is much more stagnant.
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King Man
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2024, 11:12:57 PM »
Ogles may loose his seat to a moderate dem, I could see that-otherwise no.
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