Bloomberg/Morning Consult: Trump ahead in 6 out of 7 states

[heatcharger]

Looks like the former president is in good shape in North Carolina.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This should be the motto of all our polling boards:

https://twitter.com/KSoltisAnderson/status/1783182927821508880

[heatcharger]

Looks like the former president is doing well in Arizona as well. Something to watch given the alleged salience of abortion.

[President Johnson]

This should be the motto of all our polling boards:

https://twitter.com/KSoltisAnderson/status/1783182927821508880

Nobody serisous said that "Biden got this", but polling in general has shifted towards Biden over the lasr few weeks.

[Vern]

I think that Trumps number are about right in each state. But Biden’s numbers are too low. Could be from people to happy with him right now that are just saying they are undecided.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This should be the motto of all our polling boards:

https://twitter.com/KSoltisAnderson/status/1783182927821508880

Nobody serisous said that "Biden got this", but polling in general has shifted towards Biden over the lasr few weeks.

He does have it the Turnout in PA exceeded Rs and we have a registration advantage in 303 states

[Minnesota Mike]

So let me see if I have this straight, MC has Biden +1 nationally but Trump +7 in AZ, Trump +8 in NV, and Trump + 10 in NC? Anyone really believe AZ, NV, and NC are 8,9, and 11 points right of the nation respectively? 

[Vern]

So let me see if I have this straight, MC has Biden +1 nationally but Trump +7 in AZ, Trump +8 in NV, and Trump + 10 in NC? Anyone really believe AZ, NV, and NC are 8,9, and 11 points right of the nation respectively? 

No, I just wonder if we are seeing angry democrats voters saying they are undecided. But in the end will vote for Biden.

[Fusternino]

I could see NC continuing to be stuck at about 5 points to the right of the nation due to all the counteracting trends. OTOH, it could definitely lurch right like FL did in 2020. Something that isn't talked about a lot is that there's a lot of out of state migration to the three big metros. But there's also a lot of people going to the retirement communities along the coast or the counties around Asheville (which are still much more conservative than Asheville itself).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The PA poll has it Trump plus 1 and WI is Trump plus 4 and we are leading in MI all we need is NV and NH to hold the blue wall

[Eraserhead]

It's getting ugly again, folks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's getting ugly again, folks.

Lol just 🛑🛑

[Tekken_Guy]

I could see NC continuing to be stuck at about 5 points to the right of the nation due to all the counteracting trends. OTOH, it could definitely lurch right like FL did in 2020. Something that isn't talked about a lot is that there's a lot of out of state migration to the three big metros. But there's also a lot of people going to the retirement communities along the coast or the counties around Asheville (which are still much more conservative than Asheville itself).

There’s a big difference between FL and NC as unlike NC there has been no big liberal migration to the metros lately to counter the retiree boom. Also there isn’t really anywhere in NC that’s likely to pull a Miami-Dade.

[Fusternino]

I could see NC continuing to be stuck at about 5 points to the right of the nation due to all the counteracting trends. OTOH, it could definitely lurch right like FL did in 2020. Something that isn't talked about a lot is that there's a lot of out of state migration to the three big metros. But there's also a lot of people going to the retirement communities along the coast or the counties around Asheville (which are still much more conservative than Asheville itself).

There’s a big difference between FL and NC as unlike NC there has been no big liberal migration to the metros lately to counter the retiree boom. Also there isn’t really anywhere in NC that’s likely to pull a Miami-Dade.

This is the most probable path.

With that said, even within somewhere like Wake County, Raleigh proper has kind of stopped growing. A lot of growth in Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill is in the exurbs in-between. Florida also has a lot of densely populated exurbs that get hidden in traditional urban/rural statistics. [I can't speak to what is going on in Mecklenburg County] I believe the Black population of NC is also much more rural than GA. If there's any truth to Trump getting 15-20% of the Black vote, it'd be disproportionately somewhere like NC where there's not much racial stratification in the urban/rural divide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is not a final poll the polls are fluid

[henster]

Biden is in full campaign mode and has spent tens of million on ads in these specific states and there really hasn't been movement in his favor. Alarm bells should be going off at Biden HQ, they are outspending Trump 10-1 with no effect.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden is in full campaign mode and has spent tens of million on ads in these specific states and there really hasn't been movement in his favor. Alarm bells should be going off at Biden HQ, they are outspending Trump 10-1 with no effect.

It’s just one poll. Have you seen the national polls lately?

[Eraserhead]

Biden is in full campaign mode and has spent tens of million on ads in these specific states and there really hasn't been movement in his favor. Alarm bells should be going off at Biden HQ, they are outspending Trump 10-1 with no effect.

It’s just one poll. Have you seen the national polls lately?

They're all very close and the election isn't decided by the nationwide popular vote anyway so I understand why he's concerned.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Nevada has huge overperformance of West and Stein, so that +14 is basically already +10/+9 if you discount that, even if i do think that third party voting might hurt Biden more in NV than Trump (but that isn't the case in every state). It isn't very clear nation-wide who is hurt more and i think it has something to do with who is the favoured candidate in a certain state and who is the challenger. Both candidates are unpopular.

NV, NC and AZ are overestimations for Trump, but I do think that Trump takes all of these states if elections are held today, except for MI & PA which i'm not sure off.

Elections are in november though not today, and probably the environment will be a little more favourable to Biden while Biden still has more work to do to regather his coalition compared to Trump (and the fact that polls show that he is trouble unifying that coalition again is troublesome though, but it also means that closer to election he probably closes the gap somewhat or takes the lead)...

But if Gaza is still in the news after US labor day, he'll be in a lot of trouble, it'll alienate a lot of activist and student-type of people. And I do think he'll win a less bigger share of the black, young and urban vote, a trend we see in Europe as well (for the young at least). He might overcompensate it by doing better in the suburbans but that'll depend on abortion, Trumps legal problems and the state of the economy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is in full campaign mode and has spent tens of million on ads in these specific states and there really hasn't been movement in his favor. Alarm bells should be going off at Biden HQ, they are outspending Trump 10-1 with no effect.

Lol THESE ARE POLLS NOT VOTE and it has moved PA turnout proves that Ds will win PA so you are wrong . I dislike when users take once set of polls and apply them and look at all the Natl polls showing Biden leads and users like to play moderator

NC Trump 10 should tell you that these are R biased polls stop trying to be moderators with your pro Trump bias we haven't voted yet until we do Biden is still Prez

[BlueSwan]

Guys, I've been saying this for a long time now. The deadlocked national polls don't mean much. Biden needs to win the NPV by 4 points or more to win the EC and hence the presidency. It is 2012 redux where the polls showed a basically tied national race, but Obama was leading considently in the swing states. Swing state polling has been heavily favouring Trump for many months now and hasn't shown the move towards Biden that we've seen some evidence of in national polls. It's not even particularly close in the swing states by American standards.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1783336309211177467

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't +8 in NV crap poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The more polls come out this poll is a joker of a polls

[quesaisje]

Have you looked at the averages lately?

Following up on this. Among national head-to-head polls over the past couple of weeks:

CNN (+2), Quinnipiac (+3), Emerson (+2), and Civiqs (+2), moved toward Trump.

Marist (+1) and Morning Consult (+2, looking back to the beginning of the month on their tracker) moved toward Biden.

CNN hasn't polled the race since January, but all other comparisons are since mid-March or so.

This has been a stable race with a dearth of high-quality polling, and these are troublesome times for polling itself. But there had been some indication that Biden was nudging his numbers in the right direction for a few weeks. As of late April, that doesn't seem to be the case.