Pew: Trump +1

[wbrocks67]

Trump (R) 49%
Biden (D) 48%

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/in-tight-presidential-race-voters-are-broadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt it

[Del Tachi]

Ouch.

42% of voters overall say Trump was a good or great president, while 11% say he was average. This is a modest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.

28% of voters say Biden is a good or great president, while 21% say he is average. These views are mostly on par with June 2020 assessments of the kind of president Biden would be – but today, a smaller share of voters say he is average.

[dspNY]

I think this is close to where the race is right now, anywhere from Biden +2 to Trump +1

[wbrocks67]

Ironically, given the discourse, this has Biden +21 with young voters (59-38)

[GAinDC]

Ouch.

42% of voters overall say Trump was a good or great president, while 11% say he was average. This is a modest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.

28% of voters say Biden is a good or great president, while 21% say he is average. These views are mostly on par with June 2020 assessments of the kind of president Biden would be – but today, a smaller share of voters say he is average.

So these numbers haven't changed much from 2020 when Biden won? Not concerned, then

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Ouch.

42% of voters overall say Trump was a good or great president, while 11% say he was average. This is a modest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.

28% of voters say Biden is a good or great president, while 21% say he is average. These views are mostly on par with June 2020 assessments of the kind of president Biden would be – but today, a smaller share of voters say he is average.

This tracks with about exactly what I'd expect. Trump has sycophants and cultists, Biden doesn't.

[Redban]

I believe it’s all voters, not likely voters. So it may not be a snapshot of how the election will actually play out. I think Pew does their polls for general informational /educational purposes instead of election forecast

[GeorgiaModerate]

I believe it’s all voters, not likely voters. So it may not be a snapshot of how the election will actually play out. I think Pew does their polls for general informational /educational purposes instead of election forecast

Correct.  The entire survey was adults, but the election questions were among registered voters only.  They don't do a likely voter screen.

[Eraserhead]

Ouch.

42% of voters overall say Trump was a good or great president, while 11% say he was average. This is a modest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.

28% of voters say Biden is a good or great president, while 21% say he is average. These views are mostly on par with June 2020 assessments of the kind of president Biden would be – but today, a smaller share of voters say he is average.

Well I guess the "good news" for Biden is that a lot of people who don't think he was a good President will probably still end up forcing themselves to vote for him, myself included.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ouch.

42% of voters overall say Trump was a good or great president, while 11% say he was average. This is a modest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.

28% of voters say Biden is a good or great president, while 21% say he is average. These views are mostly on par with June 2020 assessments of the kind of president Biden would be – but today, a smaller share of voters say he is average.

Well I guess the "good news" for Biden is that a lot of people who don't think he was a good President will probably still end up forcing themselves to vote for him, myself included.

There's an old saying that elections aren't always between "good" and "bad".  Sometimes they're between "bad" and "worse" -- and those are often the most important choices.

[ajc0918]

RCP has increased the number of polls in its average to ensure Rassmussen's Trump+8 poll doesn't drop off.

[Matty]

This is the first time trump has ever led a pew poll

It’s 2016 and 2020 numbers showed big leads for Clinton and Biden

[Eraserhead]

RCP has increased the number of polls in its average to ensure Rassmussen's Trump+8 poll doesn't drop off.

Did you expect anything else?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump is not getting close to 49%, even on his best night.

This is the first time trump has ever led a pew poll

It’s 2016 and 2020 numbers showed big leads for Clinton and Biden

So, shouldn't this be a bad omen for Trump then? Seems like leading in this poll is a curse.

[Agafin]

Trump is not getting close to 49%, even on his best night.

This is the first time trump has ever led a pew poll

It’s 2016 and 2020 numbers showed big leads for Clinton and Biden

So, shouldn't this be a bad omen for Trump then? Seems like leading in this poll is a curse.

Biden won in 2020. And Clinton won the popular vote (which is what is measured by nationwide polls).

[Agafin]

This poll has Trump getting 18% of black voters and 44% of Hispanics (and unlike other polls, the sample size is large enough that those subsamples can't be dismissed).

[Landslide Lyndon]

The biggest news is that 42% of Americans are horrible people.

[wbrocks67]

This is the first time trump has ever led a pew poll

It’s 2016 and 2020 numbers showed big leads for Clinton and Biden

Most of the time, not entirely. Their April 2020 poll only had Biden +2 against Trump (47-45), but then it zoomed much higher in their June poll