The New Spain - 1986 General Election

[Lumine]

March 1986

The Republic has been proclaimed and the economy is in ruins,
but could Carlism stage the ultimate comeback?

CONTEXT: The Carlist-Socialist coalition was able to preside over a clean government and a drastic expansion of the welfare state and worker power, though at the cost of hyperinflation and a deep economic depression. Forced to face a key referendum in such a context, the Carlists have been gutted by the victory of the Republic, a defeat soon followed by the decision of the Socialists to go for the jugular and call a snap election.

As the Constitution is in need of replacement for the new Third Spanish Republic, the newly elected parliament will be a constituent Cortes like in 1977, with Regent Juan expected to stay in until the first provisional President is elected right after the election.

RULES:  As a government seeking re-election, the PC will lose 1% to the largest non-government party. The economic crisis (seriously, no government thus far has gotten a good economic rating, only Areilza being mediocre at best) will provide a 5% penalty to the government parties. The 5% non-left bonus remains.

The Parties:

Partido Carlista (PC) - Left-wing, Carlism, Titoist / Despite the Socialist betrayal and the referendum defeat, Carlos Hugo is back on the campaign trail in search of the ultimate comeback, hailing the welfare expansion and promising a recovery "just around the corner". Carlism retains Titoism, autogestionary socialism and social conservativism as key planks, adding support for a strong Presidency elected by the people - which Carlos Hugo may one day occupy - as well as drastic expansion of devolution in local government, creating several ties of decentralized government.

Partido Popular (PP) - Center-right, Conservatism, Atlanticism / Cultured, intellectual, and dull, Areilza's Finance Minister Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo has inherited the party and provided a laser focus on economics, blaming Carlism for "wrecking the economy". Calvo-Sotelo has focused his campaign on the need for "responsible government", meaning fiscal responsibility to combat hyperinflation and a free market approach to economics. Adding to it are planks on social conservatism, entry into NATO, a Cortes-elected President with ceremonial powers, and reducing the fiscal powers of the regions.

Unión de Centro Democrático (UCD) - Center to center-left, Progressivism, Social liberalism / Deriding Calvo-Sotelo as "out of touch", Suárez is on the warpath again, seeking to claim the opposition mantle to Carlism, exploring his new Republican convictions, and portraying UCD as a credible choice for the youth. Making a renewed play for the center and center-left, Suárez champions Keynesianism and a reversal of Carlist nationalization, support for the EEC, a ceremonial President, ending compulsory military service, and an "independent" foreign policy distant from the US and USSR alike.

Partido Socialista Español (PSE) - Left to center-left, Democratic Socialism, socially liberal / Bespectacled, sarcastic and mordacious, once deputy to Felipe González, Alfonso Guerra presides over a unified Socialist movement hungry for blood. Taking on a fiercely Republican bent, Guerra has made the focus on his campaign the evisceration of Carlos Hugo and his movement as "useless relics", promising to lead a modern, vibrant socialist Republic. The PSE supports the expansion of worker's self-management, social liberation in divorce and abortion, opposition to NATO and support for the EEC.

Partido Comunista de España (PCE) - Left-wing, Marxist, pro-Soviet / Still under control over the pro-Soviet wing (the so-called "Afghans"), Gallego's successor Jaime Ballesteros - a PCE militant who was a vital broker between Suárez and Carrillo in 76' - retains the hardline policies of 84'. Calling for the workers to rise and prevent the Third Republic from being bourgeois-controlled, Ballesteros upholds Marxist economics, a pro-Soviet alignment and seeking Soviet economic aid to address the crisis, Euroscepticism, and a presidency with wide powers to remake Spain.

Alianza Republicana (AR) - Left-wing, Eco-socialism, Green politics / The split of the IR from the dissolving PSP led them into alliances with other smaller parties, including the Eco-socialist FP and the Green LV, with the added effect of forming a broad Republican and Green coalition. Led by former Eurocommunist Ramón Tamames - eloquent, inconstant and bold - and expressing its willingness to join a "progressive alliance" of the left, the AR coalition backs a ceremonial President and strong Parliamentary government, green politics, opposition to nuclear power, pacifism, and secularization.

Partido Liberal Demócrata - Centrism, Liberalism, Federalism / Finding the PP too conservative and Suárez too populist, a group of liberal-minded politicians have put together an ambitious proposal to establish a "truly centrist and liberal" party in Spain. Led by Miquel Roca, an intelligent and passionate Catalonian nationalist, and strongly backed and funded by the business community (the CEOE), the PLD champions the need to preserve federalism and heavily promotes a thoroughly liberal agenda for Spain, mixing social liberalization with a monetarist, free-market program to get out of the depression.

Three days.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Viva la Rey El Presidente Hugo!

[Antonio the Sixth]

PSE. The democratic, republican constitution should be written by a democratic and republican party.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Carlists

[RGM2609]

I think the only way to save Spain now is Soviet aid and a strong Presidency, and it would also be fun! PCE!

[S019]

PP

[Dereich]

As the PP (and every other party) are shamelessly abandoning the 44% who voted for monarchy, I'll go with the only guaranteed monarchist in the election: Carlos Hugo.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

PSE even if I wish they were a bit more in favor of NATO, but being pro EEC smooths over foreign policy worries unlike the continually trashy PCE

[ReallySuper]

the IR was proven right, the psoe have completely played the psp in order to appoint themselves kings, using republicanism only as a means to seize power and abandoning socialism completely. the pce are worthless; they had their chance and blew it through compromise with the class enemy. only the ecosocialists are worth voting for

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It is extremely fun to be a Carlist but I do think a strong presidency would be overall less fun to vote for than the Cortes.

[Lumine]

One day left, Socialists in the lead followed by Carlists and PP. Communists on strong fourth, a very poor night for the rest thus far.

[Continential]

PP.

[Senator Spiral]

Fascinating coalition possibilities on the horizon. Regardless: Pray for our Red Prince, folks.

[Lumine]

The Socialists strike back!

1986 General Election

Guerra vanquishes the Red Prince,
But the nation becomes even more ungovernable

Party		Votes	Seats
PP (Calvo-Sotelo)		26.6%	121 (+17)
PSE (Guerra)		23.0%	100 (+54)
PC (Borbón-Parma)		16.9%	48 (-70)
PCE (Ballesteros)		14.6%	45 (+24)
UCD (Suárez)		6.2%	17 (-26)
PLD (Roca)		3%	1 (+1)
AR (Tamames)		2.7%	1 (+1)
Nationalists		5%	17 (-4)
Others		2.0%	0

Few believed that there had been a worse campaign ever since the return to democracy in 77'. One decade in, the nation had gone from crisis to crisis, encountering civil war, corruption scandals, the unexpected fall of the monarchy, and a completely battered economy that put Spain closer to Ceaucescu's Romania than a developed European economy. Simply put, for millions and millions of Spaniards, there were ever more reasons to grow disenchanted. Did we fight so hard for this? the jobless asked. Turnout was to drop yet again, sounding the alarms for many that, if the introduction of the Third Spanish Republic was botched, authoritarianism could well be seen as a viable alternative once again.

The Carlists, all but betrayed by their junior partners and reeling from the hostility of other parties, were well and truly headless. Devoid of purpose with the Republic, deeply hurt by the worsening economic crisis, their campaign was an exercise in damage control, a desperate attempt to avoid the sort of electoral meltdown Suárez and his UCD had encountered back in 1979. Though it would not prove so bad, it was still to be a painful experience as Carlos Hugo oscillated between contemplating resignation from front-line politics and bouts of energy. The Carlists barons braced for impact, hoping there would be something to be salvaged out of the wreckage caused by Alfonso Guerra.

The Socialist leader, for his part, was out in force. Though lacking the same sort of charisma as his old ally Felipe González, his unbridled energy and dark sense of humor seemed to capture part of the frustrations from the Spanish electorate. To hear Guerra tell it, the old right and the Carlists were what had gone wrong, and if the Republic could be riddled from their "sheer, absolute incompetence", Spain would lift off at last. But it was not to be the easy ride the PSE expected. For many in the left, their scorched earth tactics had gone too far, and many increasingly radicalized leftist voters began looking at the fiercely anti-establishment PCE once again.

For the rest, the less said the better. Calvo-Sotelo stalled after a strong opening in the economy once it became painfully clear he struggled to connect to voters. Spaniards, as one internal critic in PP leaked to the press, did not want macroeconomic explanations of where it had all gone wrong. They wanted some hope, and the dreary finance wizard was very much not the man for the job. Tamames, having put so much stock on the potential for an ecologist left, found himself derided as a hippie within seconds. Roca, for all his endless pots of money, was quickly pegged down as having little of substance to say. And the UCD, seemingly miraculously revived in 84', was dragged down by a Suárez who had long since lost his luster.

Election night was chaos again, as the hopes of a two-party system laid in 1984 were crushed by comparatively close performances by four serious contenders. Calvo-Sotelo did manage to top the poll at 26%... and being well over 56 seats short of a majority, it was made clear that the Spanish right would not be governing Spain again anytime soon. Guerra won the night by earning more votes than the old PSOE and PSP together, but 23% was still a disappointment after having burned so many bridges to get there. Carlism held the line just short of collapse at 17%, but the loss of more than half its seats - quirks of the electoral system - confirmed Carlos Hugo was going back home. Suárez, Roca and Tamames all flopped hard, likely to be out within the fortnight. And in a shock result, the hardline Stalinists almost reached 15% of the vote on the backs of millions of unemployed workers.

Strictly speaking, with such numbers the only realistic PM was Alfonso Guerra. Unfortunately for him, he could either try and court the Carlists and Communists, both of which loathed him due to his antics in the past year; or form a national government with the right, betraying his discourse over the past few years. The outgoing Regent, the Count of Barcelona, was alleged to have said about Guerra's predicament: "Let's see that bastard get out of this one."