Still a little early for any predictions to be worth much (borough-wide swings in Welsh local elections are fairly rare and, when they happen, tend to emerge at the last minute, ala RCT in '99 or Cardiff in '03) but anyway, some early looks. Ward-by-ward stuff might come at some point.
Blaenau Gwent: the already complicated situtation here got a lot more complicated in the latter half of 2007 as civil wars broke out amongst the "Independents" and (hilariously) Labour again. I'm not sure whether all the various Independent factions have kissed and made up yet; if they haven't it makes predicting here even harder than it would have otherwise been. And that's just the election; what happens afterwards I've no idea.
Bridgend: Labour need about six seats to win a majority here and this, combined with the fact that one of the local AM's is none other than the Dauphin himself, makes this one "quite" interesting.
Caerphilly: I get the impression that swings here might be all over the place (which is hardly surprising given the diversity of the area). I tend to think that Labour will lose its small majority, but that's not even close to being certain (ie; I mainly think that because I'm generally being a bit of a pessimist at present). Will comment more after a closer look at ward results from last time (mainly because indications from Assembly results and local by-elections point in all sorts of different directions; the only certainty is parochialism).
Cardiff: not sure really; little can be worked out from the Assembly results here (beyond, perhaps, further Tory gains in the northern suburbs. But that was a given anyway). Expect this to get disproportionate media coverage from the Pontcanna media, as always.
Carmarthenshire: I would be stunned if anyone gets a majority, I would be equally stunned if the Ind/Lab coalition is removed by
electoral means. But this will be interesting anyways.
Ceredigion: no one will win a majority, that much is certain. I think a further round of collapse for the rural Indies (at least one of which is probably a member of the Conservative party) is likely, but that's just a hunch. Oh and good luck to Harry
Conwy: will be as murky as ever.
"Denbighshire": the council here is a disgrace and a joke. I expect the Indies to bear the brunt of the deserved backlash. Quite where this leaves this I've no idea.
Flintshire: I expect the Labour majority to go, but then most people thought that the majority would go last time round.
Gwynedd: the Plaid majority here might fall, yes, it might (and I hope that it does; this is another administration that clearly deserves to lose office... though they'll probably hold onto it even if the majority goes. But they might be less arrogant and that would be a welcome blessing...) and if it does everyone will point to the schools issue. But it isn't certain and I don't think that Llais y Bobol will have quite the impact in rural areas as some think, but I'm prepared to be proved wrong. So much more could be said. Fingers crossed anyway.
Merthyr Tydfil: local politics in Merthyr is even weirder than normal. Various forms of Labour, Independent Labour (even if they can't use that badge anymore) and splinter groups to dominate, as usual. No idea whether there will be a majority, not entirely sure if it matters.
Monmouth: I'd be very surprised if the Tory majority goes.
Neath Port Talbot: an odd one. IIRC the majority here is stronger than it looks, but I might be confusing it with somewhere else. Must check this. Either way, Labour will almost certainly be running the council, majority or no, after the election (the opposition is very fragmented... and even includes three SDP councillers!)
Newport: and IIRC the Labour majority here is softer than it looks (again, I might be wrong). But it's still a large majority...
Pembrokeshire:
Con "Independent" hold, tragically
Powys: a majority of councillers will be declared Indies.
Rhondda-Cynon-Taff: Labour holds about three quarters of the seats here...
Swansea: Labour needs just two seats to regain control. Not sure if it'll happen; while the current administration is pretty unpopular, the old Labour one was
dreadful... things are complicated by the fact that Swansea has ridiculously large wards (including some seven member ones...). Will be interesting anyway.
Torfaen: see RCT
Vale of Glamorgan: could be fun. The big question here is whether or not the local Tories have recovered from the complete fiasco that was their now former minority administration here. And how will voters respond to the current adminstration taking power in what was basically a coup?
Wrexham: there are indications that Labour could do rather well here (but I'm biased and would say that). Watch out for the BNP also.
Ynys Môn: no one faction (the word "party" has no meaning in local politics on Anglesey) will win a majority, obviously.
