CO-04: Gravis (D internal) - McCorkle (D) +7 vs Boebert, -6 vs Sonnenberg

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.coloradopolitics.com/news/lauren-boebert-trails-democrat-ike-mccorkle-poll-shows/article_43a115a8-5f52-56a8-8919-869365d625fc.html

March 27-29, 529 LV.  Huge number of undecideds, though.

McCorkle 38
Boebert 31

Sonnenberg 24
McCorkle 18

[Boobs]

I initially thought this was an April Fool’s thing, but internals such as these aren’t far off from being pranks even on normal days.

[Tekken_Guy]

Boebert is unlikely to lose in 2024 if she’s nominated but an IA-04 redux is very much possible.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Lopez can win the special I think Boebert should be fine in November.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Lopez can win the special I think Boebert should be fine in November.

Boebert’s biggest worry is the primary, as O’Dea won this district in the 2022 primary pretty decisively and she’s as popular as a toxic waste dump in Douglas County which is half the district.

Also in the general, remember all the restlessness about Kris Kobach and Eric Greitens’ Senate campaigns had they won the primary? Nominating her would be a repeat of that since CO-04 has similar partisanship to KS and MO.

[Roll Roons]

The general rule of thumb is that for House seats, anything that the president's party won by 15-17 is the upper limit of what can be flipped in a midterm.

This seat was Trump +18 in 2020, and it will likely be closer than that after this year because of the strong leftward trend in Douglas County. So if Trump wins and Boebert wins the primary, I do think she could lose a general in 2026, though it would be a one-term rental.

[Spectator]

The general rule of thumb is that for House seats, anything that the president's party won by 15-17 is the upper limit of what can be flipped in a midterm.

This seat was Trump +18 in 2020, and it will likely be closer than that after this year because of the strong leftward trend in Douglas County. So if Trump wins and Boebert wins the primary, I do think she could lose a general in 2026, though it would be a one-term rental.

That's probably what it would take. Democrat would need to win Douglas County by double digits, which is probably doable under that set of conditions. Wonder if we could see an all-Dem congressional delegation in 2026 if Trump is President. CO-05 is flying leftwards as well, and it's not hard to see that one flipping this decade.