Do any of Boebert, Spartz, Mace get renominated?

[Tekken_Guy]

Do any of Lauren Boebert, Victoria Spartz, and Nancy Mace get renominated? All three candidates known for their embarrassing behavior and all face tough primaries this cycle.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Mace yes; Boebert no; Spartz too close to call.

[Vosem]

My guess is none of these, but I think Boebert is in the best position of the three.

[Tekken_Guy]

My guess is none of these, but I think Boebert is in the best position of the three.

Why? If anything she’s in the worst position of the three.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My guess is none of these, but I think Boebert is in the best position of the three.

More than Mace? Why would Mace not?

[SnowLabrador]

Boebert and Mace, yes. Spartz, no.

[Vosem]

My guess is none of these, but I think Boebert is in the best position of the three.

More than Mace? Why would Mace not?

Mace has to clear 50% in a seat with a substantial Democratic crossover, where she's already upset most of the very pro-Trump people and is now also on bad terms with the establishment, and whose own staff don't like her. I don't really see how she beats anyone in a runoff, or why Templeton shouldn't just annihilate her.

Spartz has been hugely outraised and outspent by Chuck Goodrich, and she also spent a year not campaigning, and she's also not a competent member; I think her personal story of fleeing Ukraine also works better in the 2010s-era GOP than the 2020s-era GOP.

Boebert has lots of problems but the opposition to her is splintered and her personal story retains some appeal, enough that I'd be surprised to see her sink below 30% or so, which could easily be enough to win given how fragmented the opposition is. There are currently attempts to unite around Jerry Sonnenberg as a consensus anti-Boebert candidate but I'm not sure that effort is going to really work.

[Tekken_Guy]

My guess is none of these, but I think Boebert is in the best position of the three.

More than Mace? Why would Mace not?

Mace has to clear 50% in a seat with a substantial Democratic crossover, where she's already upset most of the very pro-Trump people and is now also on bad terms with the establishment, and whose own staff don't like her. I don't really see how she beats anyone in a runoff, or why Templeton shouldn't just annihilate her.

Spartz has been hugely outraised and outspent by Chuck Goodrich, and she also spent a year not campaigning, and she's also not a competent member; I think her personal story of fleeing Ukraine also works better in the 2010s-era GOP than the 2020s-era GOP.

Boebert has lots of problems but the opposition to her is splintered and her personal story retains some appeal, enough that I'd be surprised to see her sink below 30% or so, which could easily be enough to win given how fragmented the opposition is. There are currently attempts to unite around Jerry Sonnenberg as a consensus anti-Boebert candidate but I'm not sure that effort is going to really work.

Boebert doesn’t need to be held below 30% to be beaten. Madison Cawthorn and Steve King both got above 30% in the primaries they lost.

Is there a reason you don’t think Sonnenberg can win? Douglas County is an atom bomb of anti-Boebert votes.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

[MargieCat]

Boebert no. I think Spartz and Mace probably get renominated.

The average voter probably doesn't know that Spartz waffled and if they do, they might not care.

Not sure about Rosendale in MT-02.

[Tekken_Guy]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

Boebert gets like 40% imo
Spartz gets over 50%

[Tekken_Guy]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

Boebert gets like 40% imo
Spartz gets over 50%

Does Mace win outright or does she win through a runoff?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

Boebert gets like 40% imo
Spartz gets over 50%

Does Mace win outright or does she win through a runoff?

Outright. I just don't think there's much hate for her in the district. Despite what GOP leaders want, the base just doesn't care if a congressperson voted to oust McCarthy or not.

[Tekken_Guy]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

Boebert gets like 40% imo
Spartz gets over 50%

Does Mace win outright or does she win through a runoff?

Outright. I just don't think there's much hate for her in the district. Despite what GOP leaders want, the base just doesn't care if a congressperson voted to oust McCarthy or not.

How do you feel Boebert and Spartz are viewed in their districts?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

Boebert gets like 40% imo
Spartz gets over 50%

Does Mace win outright or does she win through a runoff?

Outright. I just don't think there's much hate for her in the district. Despite what GOP leaders want, the base just doesn't care if a congressperson voted to oust McCarthy or not.

How do you feel Boebert and Spartz are viewed in their districts?

More negatively, Spartz due to just being an incompetent congresswoman who seems like she hates the job, and Boebert due to being a carpetbagger/embarrassment.

[Tekken_Guy]

All are renominated. I'm most confident about Mace.

For Boebert and Spartz because they actually do well in the primary or because they sneak through on divided opposition?

Boebert gets like 40% imo
Spartz gets over 50%

Does Mace win outright or does she win through a runoff?

Outright. I just don't think there's much hate for her in the district. Despite what GOP leaders want, the base just doesn't care if a congressperson voted to oust McCarthy or not.

How do you feel Boebert and Spartz are viewed in their districts?

More negatively, Spartz due to just being an incompetent congresswoman who seems like she hates the job, and Boebert due to being a carpetbagger/embarrassment.

How long do you see them lasting in congress overall?

[2016]

Mace has now gotten a serious Primary Challenger in Catherine Templeton who has also being endorse by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

Just going to comment since I'm not 100% sure how I'll go on the poll question.

Had Lauren Boebert stayed in her present district; I'd be more confident in saying she probably doesn't get renominated, though due to her jumping districts to a more Republican-friendly district in CO-4. Even then, I'm doubtful given all the baggage she's bringing to the campaign.

As mentioned earlier, with Nancy Mace she's virtually a candidate without a base (the pro-Trump wing has had it in for her based on her remarks regarding January 6; the evangelical base - of which there's naturally a good bit of overlap in South Carolina with the Trump supporters - is likely furious with Mace for breaking with more socially conservative Republicans in supporting the Respect for Marriage Act, criticizing states that sought to tighten their laws regarding abortion after Roe v. Wade was struck down and supporting removing cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act and the establishment wing's upset due to her voting to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker)

Victoria Spartz is the most interesting of the group in terms of 2024 prospects given that about this time last year she was saying she was leaving Congress.

[Tekken_Guy]

Just going to comment since I'm not 100% sure how I'll go on the poll question.

Had Lauren Boebert stayed in her present district; I'd be more confident in saying she probably doesn't get renominated, though due to her jumping districts to a more Republican-friendly district in CO-4. Even then, I'm doubtful given all the baggage she's bringing to the campaign.

As mentioned earlier, with Nancy Mace she's virtually a candidate without a base (the pro-Trump wing has had it in for her based on her remarks regarding January 6; the evangelical base - of which there's naturally a good bit of overlap in South Carolina with the Trump supporters - is likely furious with Mace for breaking with more socially conservative Republicans in supporting the Respect for Marriage Act, criticizing states that sought to tighten their laws regarding abortion after Roe v. Wade was struck down and supporting removing cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act and the establishment wing's upset due to her voting to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker)

Victoria Spartz is the most interesting of the group in terms of 2024 prospects given that about this time last year she was saying she was leaving Congress.

CO-03 may not be as red as CO-04 but it has a Trumpier primary electorate given it’s mostly rural and populist while 04 has Douglas County. O’Dea won the 4th and 5th in the primary, but he lost the 3rd.