May Primaries Coverage Thread

[NOVA Green]

I wish "Uncommitted' was an option on the Oregon ballot. We may see Williamson's best performance of the race later tonight though (unless there's a crazy amount of wrire-ins).

I know at least a couple people who are writing in Sanders.

[Eraserhead]

What time do polls close in Oregon ET? 11?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What time do polls close in Oregon ET? 11?

Yes

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

KY D delegate allocation is 37-7 so far with some still outstanding.

[NOVA Green]

What time do polls close in Oregon ET? 11?

Yes

Also important to remember the OR ballots can be counted so long as they are postmarked by ED (This is a relatively new thing in the first all VBM state).

It might be at least a couple days before we get a real sense of where the final numbers will roll, and if an extremely close race, then you start to get into "ballot curing", where election officials attempt to contact the voter which has a certain period of time to respond to do things such as verify signature etc....

Generally that process is quicker than California but something to keep in mind if for example we see an extremely close race in OR-DEM CD-05.

[NOVA Green]

So FWIW...

As of the 5/21/24 OR-SOS numbers current returned ballots are:

DEM- 289,988 (29.2%)
PUB-  232,522 (32.2%)

Naturally the TO gap will likely narrow since like DEMs are much more likely than PUBs in OR to submit ballots later to the deadline.

[Minnesota Mike]

It's shortly before 11:00 EDT and Georgia has 93% of their ballots counted. It may be a little slower in November but unless it's extremely close we should know their results election night.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well the first vote in Oregon goes to Biden....

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
1   +100%100%   
No delegates—
Marianne Williamson
0   +0%0   
No delegates—
Total Write-ins
0   +0%0   
No delegates—
Total reported
1   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Biden has won the Oregon Primary

Joseph R. Biden Jr.*incumbent
13,056   +91%91%   
No delegates—
Marianne Williamson
782   +5%5   
No delegates—
Total Write-ins
519   +4%4   
No delegates—
Total reported
14,357   

[NOVA Green]

DDHQ has it as:

DEM- 143,536 Total Votes

Biden- 93.2%

[NOVA Green]

Of larger POP Counties Douglas is one of the weakest (88.4%), with Klamath (87.6%).

Worst Biden county thus far is Malheur at 84.1%.

[NOVA Green]

According the OR-SOS official site currently:

Biden- 133,806 / 150,997 DEM Ballots    (88.6%)
Trump- 84,123 / 93,287 PUB Ballots       (90.2 %)

Note Non-Trump votes are all Write-In ballots....

[Eraserhead]

Even with no "Uncommitted" option, Biden is doing a bit better than I expected in Oregon so far (albeit still considerably worse than Obama 2012).

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Getting a large pro-hamas population out of Lake County, OR.

Biden looks likely to walk away with all delegates in the state though. Much stronger than KY.

[NOVA Green]

Getting a large pro-hamas population out of Lake County, OR.

Biden looks likely to walk away with all delegates in the state though. Much stronger than KY.

Columbia County is a bit more concerning to me than Lake County with a 12.7% Williamson Vote in what was long an Ancestral DEM County which has been long trending PUB.

Linn County is also slightly concerning considering there are still quite a few DINOsaurs out there, although gradually some have shifted to IND or PUB, but still perhaps some good news still hitting well short of the 20% that REG DEMs running for Statewide office have sometimes hit voting for Pols whose platforms sound more like a PUB than a DEM platform.

[Eraserhead]

If it holds, Biden doing ever so slightly better in Oregon than Maryland is definitely not something I would have expected. I suppose it can be waved off as one state having "Uncommitted" on the ballot while the other didn't but still kind of funny.

[NOVA Green]

Biden is now down to 80.7% in Columbia County.

Biden is now down to 83.6% in Douglas County.

Biden is now only capturing 83.0% in Linn County.

These are numbers which stand out significantly on the DEM-PREZ side on the House.

Biden currently tracking ~ 90% in many of the the traditional DEM "Breadbaskets" and strongholds including heavily college counties such as Benton, Lane, and Polk.

Coastal retirement places such as Clatsop, Lincoln, and Curry appears that REG DEMs are still heavily backing Biden.

PDX Suburban and Exurban DEMs appear to be voting heavily Biden with current numbers:

Washington County- 90.2%
Clackamas County- 91.1%
Yamhill County- 90.1%

Multnomah County has barely started reporting

Only 55,468 votes counted thus far in what is the DEM "Breadbasket" of Oregon.

Biden is only floating at 87.4% but would definitely wait until later in the night and over the next couple days to see how these results settle.

Still scrolling though initial precinct results not seeing tons of heavy negative numbers (thus far) with the exception of a few precincts under 80%, some of which overlap with the whole "Portland Kremlin" precincts of yore:

4201 (Looks like inner SE PDX?)- 78% Biden

4205 (Inner East PDX across the Burnside Bridge) - 76% Biden

4302 (Inner Northeast plus Old Town)- 78% Biden

4605 (Lents) stand out dramatically- 73% Biden

This is an extremely diverse neighborhood with a large % of Non-Anglo voters close to a major North-South Blvd "what's up 82nd street".

[NOVA Green]

Trump's worst counties thus far in Oregon include some fairly usual suspects, despite the fact that Write-Ins were the only option available for PUBs in a closed Primary with nobody else on the ballot:

Benton County- (College County)- 85% Trump
Hood River County- (Columbia River Gorge Tourist County)-- 89% Trump

Multnomah County- (PDX plus large suburban cities such as Gresham)- 84% Trump

*** Trump is getting killed in West Portland Precincts getting only something like 60-70% based upon results posted thus far ***

He is doing much better in many precincts in East Portland in areas where there are very few Republican voters.

His best numbers are posted in places in East Portland and East MultCo where he is clearing >80% and in some places 90%.

Sure places like Gresham might be interesting to watch in November '24 but not seeing tons of enthusiam for Trump among what is left of the once proud Republican Party of Multnomah County.

Washington County- 85% Trump in what used to be considered a key OR swing County for statewide elections where thus far only 22k PUBs have votes counted and basically is almost large enough to have it's own OR-CD.

[wbrocks67]

For all the talk about Oregon, 88% with write-ins as well is v good for Biden

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

KY D delegate allocation is 37-7 so far with some still outstanding.

43-8 now

[Eraserhead]

Biden down to 87.2% with the write-ins surging in Oregon.

[wbrocks67]

Biden down to 87.2% with the write-ins surging in Oregon.

Sounds about right, I assume he'll settle around 85-86% by the end, which is still a bit higher than I expected. I was thinking something closer to 80%