Was Jo Jorgensen a spoiler for Trump?

[Redban]

GA:

Jorgensen got 62,229 votes. Biden beats Trump by 11,779

A 60-40 split of the Jorgensen voters would've given Trump a win by about 2k

AZ:

Jorgensen got 51,465 votes. Biden beats Trump by 10, 457

A 60-40 split of the Jorgensen voters would've given Trump/Biden a virtual tie, with about 400-500 votes separating them

WI:

Jorgensen got 38,491 votes. Biden beats Trump by 20,682. Trump would've needed about 76-78% of Jorgensen's vote

However - Jorgensen didn't appear as a libertarian in WI. He appeared as an independent alongside many others, like Carroll and Blakenship. Jorgensen, Carroll, and Blankenship got 49,985 votes. A 60-40 split would've been a virtual tie with about 600-700 votes separating them

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Jo Jorgensen is a woman btw.

I don't think so - a lot of Libertarian Party voters aren't necessarily ideologically libertarian, but more screw the two-party system voters. A lot may have not voted at all without the option for a protest vote.

[Pericles]

A lot of those voters just wouldn't vote if they had to pick between Biden and Trump.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The Libertarian candidate was only a spoiler in the Georgia Senate race. Not neccesarily that Hazel's voters would have went to Perdue, but rather their participation in the election increased the threshold for 50% which Perdue fell short of initially.

As for Jorgensen, I doubt she was a spoiler. Gary Johnson was at least a former governor, and Evan McMullin def played spoiler in Utah. However, Jo Jorgensen was literally a random woman who wasn't even winning the Libertarian party primary vote and only managed to get through the convention. She had essentially 0 name recognition, and was probably the best Libertarian opponent Trump could have hoped for in those regards. Considering how polarized the 2020 election was, I am very confident that the only people who went through the trouble of casting a ballot for her were hardcore Liberterians who had 0 interest in whether Trump or Biden won.

[xavier110]

It’s hard to say, especially when a plurality (slim majority?) of Gary Johnson voters who did not vote Libertarian in 2020 likely voted Biden.

[PSOL]

Nope

JoJo & the Bronie was also the best ticket for the libertarian race, so this even is further proof that spoilers don’t really exist for either of the duopoly. The only example where this might be true is in Florida for the 2018 gubernatorial where the center-Left Reform party along with the rest of the independent moderate candidate took a good amount of votes from Gillum, but probably not enough to win.

[Stranger in a strange land]

No, Libertarian voters aren't gettable for either major party: they're generally either ideologically committed Libertarians who wouldn't vote for either the Dems or GOP, or are just using the Libertarian ballot line to vote NOTA.

[Pres Mike]

A lot of those voters just wouldn't vote if they had to pick between Biden and Trump.

No, Libertarian voters aren't gettable for either major party: they're generally either ideologically committed Libertarians who wouldn't vote for either the Dems or GOP, or are just using the Libertarian ballot line to vote NOTA.

I mean...most 2016 Libertarian voters did vote for President Biden in 2020. Just like how most 2000 Nader voters did vote for Kerry in 2004

There is a percentage of the Democratic coalition that is adamant about complaining. They did in 2000 and 2016 and looked what happened.

It’s hard to say, especially when a plurality (slim majority?) of Gary Johnson voters who did not vote Libertarian in 2020 likely voted Biden.

Exactly