What split is more likely to happen in Michigan?

[Tekken_Guy]

What is more likely to happen in Michigan? Trump winning the state while Slotkin holds, or the GOP winning the senate seat while Biden holds?

[Xing]

Trump/Slotkin, though I don’t think she’s overperform Biden by as much as Baldwin/Casey.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tossup, but this is about the only state where I could see a Biden Win and a GOP senate victory. I'm sorry but Lake has no chance in AZ

[Schiff for Senate]

Trump/Slotkin, though I don’t think she’s overperform Biden by as much as Baldwin/Casey.

[President Johnson]

Trump/Slotkin, though I don’t think she’s overperform Biden by as much as Baldwin/Casey.

Agreed, though I could also see Biden winning by slightly more in the end. He outperformed Gary Peters in 2020 despite latter was an incumbent and Biden wasn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither Biden/Slotkin both win

[Sir Mohamed]

Bold choice: #2. I expect neither to happen though.

In all likelyhood, Biden is going to hold the state and Slotkin going to win. I actually believe Biden will win by a similar margin and Slotkin being within less than a point in one way or the other. Peters was a dull candidate and James a relatively solid recruit.

[Vosem]

The second by far; the overwhelming pattern in both 2016 and 2020 was for congressional Republicans in open seats to do better than Trump, and the reasons for that have not gone away. If anything the continued prominence of 1/6 in the 2022 results suggests the gap will be wider, not narrower.

[Del Tachi]

Answer depends on who the GOP nominee is.

[SnowLabrador]

Option 1. Biden is uniquely toxic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Option 1. Biden is uniquely toxic.

Trump is toxic too

[MT Treasurer]

Does Slotkin really have such a robust statewide brand? To me, she seems to be campaigning almost exactly like Debbie Stabenow would have — bland generic Michigan Democrat.

Also, while Biden is indeed far more toxic than generic D, the same applies to Trump vis-à-vis generic R.

[Roll Roons]

Does Slotkin really have such a robust statewide brand? To me, she seems to be campaigning almost exactly like Debbie Stabenow would have — bland generic Michigan Democrat.

If it ain't broke, why fix it?

[MT Treasurer]

Does Slotkin really have such a robust statewide brand? To me, she seems to be campaigning almost exactly like Debbie Stabenow would have — bland generic Michigan Democrat.

If it ain't broke, why fix it?

I get that, but Peters & Stabenow both underperformed and the latter would have been in danger of losing in 2024. It'll probably be harder to rely on as the state drifts more and more to the right/swing state status.