Will the abortion referendum pass in Florida?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It needs 60% of the vote to win and I feel like that is a heavy lift. It will absolutely get 50%, and likely get 55%, but getting those last few % seems very difficult. It got 56.7 in Michigan, is Florida significantly more pro choice?

[Alben Barkley]

I didn't realize it needed 60% like they tried to do in Ohio. What a joke law for a joke of a state.

[Sestak]

I didn't realize it needed 60% like they tried to do in Ohio. What a joke law for a joke of a state.

Yes - this is why, for instance, Florida failed to adopt medical marijuana in 2014 because the vote was only 58-42 in favor (they later adopted it in 2016). It’s also why recreational weed campaigns have been hesitant there until this cycle. [[Notably, the felon enfranchisement provision also had to pass this margin, and did easily with just about 2/3 of the vote before the legislature decided to neuter it anyway. ]]

Anyway, I do find it somewhat difficult (though perhaps not impossible) for abortion to get to that 60%. I feel like marijuana probably can, though even in Ohio the gap wasn’t as big between the issues as some might think, and results recently from Dakotas/Oklahoma/Arkansas in the last year shows a renewed willingness from red states to reject legal weed. Abortion is a much stickier issue, though - especially in a (partially) Southern state with a presidential electorate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Given it’s 60% , my guess is they may Try to put a less expansive measure on the ballot . Maybe one that codifies abortion rights in the first trimester rather than the first two .

[Skill and Chance]

Given it’s 60% , my guess is they may Try to put a less expansive measure on the ballot . Maybe one that codifies abortion rights in the first trimester rather than the first two .

Has the language been set?  I would be shocked if "codify Roe" got 60%, but I would also be shocked if 12 weeks didn't get 60%.

[Skill and Chance]

I didn't realize it needed 60% like they tried to do in Ohio. What a joke law for a joke of a state.

This one has a more complex backstory.  Florida had a history of narrowly passing very specific constitutional amendments in the early 2000's that read more like legislation and were simply bizarre things to include in a state constitution, like mandating the creation of a monorail system between the cities (eventually repealed after it was estimated to cost billions of dollars) and regulating the confinement of pregnant pigs.  The 60% threshold was primarily a reaction against this stuff.

Ironically, it was support from left-wing areas that allowed the 60% threshold to pass back in 2006.  Even more ironically, it passed with <60% of the vote.  They were hoping that it would block an upcoming gay marriage ban amendment, but unfortunately for them, when that came up for a vote in 2008, it narrowly cleared 60% anyway.

This author believes the 60% threshold has helped liberals on net since it was enacted: https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-121-ohio-issue-1-and-the-politics   

As you can see, several Tea Party oriented conservative amendments cleared 50% but failed to clear 60% in the 2010's.  The only significant liberal loss >50% but <60% so far was medical marijuana in 2014, but they got it through on the 2nd try just 2 years later.
 

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The one poll (that didn't poll the head to head matchup but would be around Trump +14, Scott +4 from favorables) has abortion passing with 62% to 29%. Usually, polls get the "yes" share right, while underestimating the "no" share.

[Agafin]

Abortion and weed will both get over 55%, with weed clearing 60% and maybe even 65%. I'm 50/50 on whether abortion actually clears 60%. The usual pattern is that more republicans support weed than abortion while it's the opposite with democrats (more oppose weed than abortion) so in a state with more republicans than democrats (as is the case with Florida), weed will always have the upper hand. I can see up to 40% of republicans supporting weed but only 30% for abortion. On the other side, maybe 10-15% of democrats will vote against abortion but 20% or even as much as 30% (especially older democrats) will oppose weed.

[Person Man]

Abortion and weed will both get over 55%, with weed clearing 60% and maybe even 65%. I'm 50/50 on whether abortion actually clears 60%. The usual pattern is that more republicans support weed than abortion while it's the opposite with democrats (more oppose weed than abortion) so in a state with more republicans than democrats (as is the case with Florida), weed will always have the upper hand. I can see up to 40% of republicans supporting weed but only 30% for abortion. On the other side, maybe 10-15% of democrats will vote against abortion but 20% or even as much as 30% (especially older democrats) will oppose weed.

Abortion is a more partisan issue than marijuana, of course.

[Agafin]

Abortion and weed will both get over 55%, with weed clearing 60% and maybe even 65%. I'm 50/50 on whether abortion actually clears 60%. The usual pattern is that more republicans support weed than abortion while it's the opposite with democrats (more oppose weed than abortion) so in a state with more republicans than democrats (as is the case with Florida), weed will always have the upper hand. I can see up to 40% of republicans supporting weed but only 30% for abortion. On the other side, maybe 10-15% of democrats will vote against abortion but 20% or even as much as 30% (especially older democrats) will oppose weed.

Abortion is a more partisan issue than marijuana, of course.

That's not true, at least according to polling. Obviously abortion is a stronger issue for people and actually influence who they vote for, but marijuana legalization is more bipartisan (which is not  the same thing as saying that it has more overall support). That's because older democrats are lukewarm on marijuana while young republicans are mostly ok with it. For example, these are the exit polls from the Ohio referenda:

On abortion: Democrats were 92-8 in favor, republicans were 82-18 against and indys were 64-36 in favor;
On marijuana: Democrats were 79-21 in favor, republicans were 70-30 opposed and indys were 64-36 in favor.

Sources:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2023/exit-polls/ohio/abortion-ballot-measure/0
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2023/exit-polls/ohio/marijuana-legalization-ballot-measure/0

As you can see, abortion was clearly the more partisan/polarized issue here.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think so. It just won't affect the presidential results very much.

[PSOL]

I am having doubts that it will

[henster]

I know in Arkansas they are trying to get a referendum allowing abortion up to 18 weeks. Not sure if its going to pass there but keeping the <60 threshold in mind in FL, seems like 18 weeks could be the sweet spot to get the broadest amount of support. Republicans keep pushing 15 weeks as a 'middle ground' so it would be pretty difficult for them to whip up support against allowing abortion for just 3 more weeks.

[Person Man]

I know in Arkansas they are trying to get a referendum allowing abortion up to 18 weeks. Not sure if its going to pass there but keeping the <60 threshold in mind in FL, seems like 18 weeks could be the sweet spot to get the broadest amount of support. Republicans keep pushing 15 weeks as a 'middle ground' so it would be pretty difficult for them to whip up support against allowing abortion for just 3 more weeks.

Or just do 12-15 weeks. I think 18 is probably that big of a lift. In conservative states, or states with a high threshold, that should make a Lean/Likely No situation into a tossup, you would think.

[2016]

I am having doubts Abortion will be even on the Ballot. They haven't met the Signature Requirement and time is running out. They have December and January.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes it will and hopefully, Scott loses

[Red Wall]

Will probably do the worst of any state outside the deep south. Florida is soft southern and has had many magas who hate abortion move there and their funds are bare bones

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The pro-life side would likely do worse in Florida than Georgia, but I imagine it similar to Ohio/Michigan.  Especially with a presidential turnout, I would be quite surprised if there is 60% to pass the amendment.

[CityofSinners]

A 12 week ban should pass. 15 weeks is a toss-up. Can't see anything more permissive pass.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Florida is probably one of the most pro-chocie southern state, but the Northern 30% of the state is solidly southern, and essentially no different than southern Alabama or Georgia. It isn't until you get to Orlando on the east, and The Villages on the west, when you are no longer culturally in the south. I think that will probably be enough to prevent an Ohio/Michigan type of referendum to get to 60%.

[Schiff for Senate]

No. Not on a Trump-Biden ballot where there's a 3/5 threshold for passage.

[Gracile]

Doubtful it will get to 60%. While Florida is less religious than other Southern states, making it possible for it to overperform Democratic candidates statewide, it also has non-insignificant white evangelical and black populations (the latter group has been notable for supporting these abortion referendums by less enthusiastic margins than their baseline partisanship), which added with a presidential electorate makes it challenging to see the referendum pass.

[Person Man]

Doubtful it will get to 60%. While Florida is less religious than other Southern states, making it possible for it to overperform Democratic candidates statewide, it also has non-insignificant white evangelical and black populations (the latter group has been notable for supporting these abortion referendums by less enthusiastic margins than their baseline partisanship), which added with a presidential electorate makes it challenging to see the referendum pass.

There are many pro-choice Republicans in Florida but I don't think its enough.

[SnowLabrador]

No. The state's just gotten so much more conservative.