California primary tea leaves

[GALeftist]

California's top two primaries are not nearly as predictive as Washington's, but they can still be useful. My take:

CA-SEN: Schiff obviously wins in November. The overall margin is (as of now) D 59.38 - R 39.02 (D+20), as compared to Biden 63.48 - Trump 34.32 in 2020 (Biden+29). There's no sugarcoating it, this is not a good performance. One thing to note is that 85% Hispanic Imperial County went D 50.5 - R 44.8; this is also pretty bad as far as it goes.

CA-03: Not enough in for me to be confident yet, but R+12 in a Trump+2 seat is not too shabby. Firm Lean R imo.

CA-09: Harder over 50% is enough for me to put this seat at Likely D.

CA-12: Simon looks like a pretty safe bet.

CA-13: I've seen a lot of doom over these results, but for such a Hispanic seat I actually don't think R+10 in the primary is apocalyptic for Gray, although they certainly indicate a close race at minimum. Tilt R imo.

CA-16: I think Low is gonna squeak it out over Simitian. Don't know which way this goes in November.

CA-22: This one's primary results are so all over the place that I have no idea what R+11 means for November. Tilt R.

CA-27: Garcia at 55% is enough for me to put this seat at Tilt R, minimum.

CA-29: Bernal (R) is advancing, and even if he weren't, Rivas wins in November.

CA-30: Friedman wins in November.

CA-31: Cisneros wins in November, but we've got to put an end to the stupid California primary system.

CA-34: Gomez vs. Kim (D) round 3; Gomez at 51% is enough to make this Lean Gomez.

CA-40: Kim (R) at 56% makes this a firm Lean R.

CA-41: Calvert at 53% isn't really that good. Tilt R.

CA-45: I think Tran advances, but Steel at 55% is enough for me to put this at a pretty firm Lean R.

CA-47: R+3 puts this firmly in the Tossup category. Maybe Tilt D; we'll have to see if Min is truly a weak candidate.

CA-49: Levin at 51% makes this seat Likely D.

Overall, these primary results seem pretty dismal for Democrats. Many of the seats where I think they stand a good chance are just Central Valley seats where I gave them the benefit of the doubt due to low Hispanic primary turnout. Progressives did fairly well, though, outside of the Senate race of course. What do y'all think?

[Spectator]

Democrat turnout was piss poor compared to the GOP presidential primary. This is reflected in all the congressional districts where you can filter by district in the Presidential primary on the SOS website. I’d be shocked if registered Republicans outvoted registered Democrats in a district as heavily registered Democrat as CA-27 is for example.

[Duke of York]

primary turnout is not indicative of general election turnout.

[GALeftist]

primary turnout is not indicative of general election turnout.

Very true, but in most swing seats it can be helpful to think of primary results as a ceiling for Rs.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think we're putting way too much stock in primary results.

Maybe it was an accurate reflection in a midterm year like 2022, in 2024, with a presidential election and naturally better turnout, it's probably (Josh) Harder to predict. Especially since Democrats are going to try to flip the competitive Republican held seats with a lot more vigor this time.

[Minnesota Mike]

I think we're putting way too much stock in primary results.

Maybe it was an accurate reflection in a midterm year like 2022, in 2024, with a presidential election and naturally better turnout, it's probably (Josh) Harder to predict. Especially since Democrats are going to try to flip the competitive Republican held seats with a lot more vigor this time.

They didn't try hard to flip them in the past? Sure.

[Duke of York]

primary turnout is not indicative of general election turnout.

Very true, but in most swing seats it can be helpful to think of primary results as a ceiling for Rs.

Not really.

[Minnesota Mike]

primary turnout is not indicative of general election turnout.

Disagree. It's not the be all end all and you need to also look a historical patterns and other factors but party turnout in a Top 2 can be a very helpful data point. Better than the random polls we all obsess over.

[DrScholl]

The results aren't all that good for Republicans when you consider the electorate was more Republican than usual. Pretty much all of their votes are solid Republicans because of the closed primary and independents turned out very low. Turnout was also Whiter and older.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think we're putting way too much stock in primary results.

Maybe it was an accurate reflection in a midterm year like 2022, in 2024, with a presidential election and naturally better turnout, it's probably (Josh) Harder to predict. Especially since Democrats are going to try to flip the competitive Republican held seats with a lot more vigor this time.

They didn't try hard to flip them in the past? Sure.

Christy Smith and TJ Cox aren't running this time, so that's some improvement.

[Holmes]

I think we're putting way too much stock in primary results.

Maybe it was an accurate reflection in a midterm year like 2022, in 2024, with a presidential election and naturally better turnout, it's probably (Josh) Harder to predict. Especially since Democrats are going to try to flip the competitive Republican held seats with a lot more vigor this time.

They didn't try hard to flip them in the past? Sure.

Not really in 2022, no.

[David Hume]

California's top two primaries are not nearly as predictive as Washington's, but they can still be useful. My take:

CA-SEN: Schiff obviously wins in November. The overall margin is (as of now) D 59.38 - R 39.02 (D+20), as compared to Biden 63.48 - Trump 34.32 in 2020 (Biden+29). There's no sugarcoating it, this is not a good performance. One thing to note is that 85% Hispanic Imperial County went D 50.5 - R 44.8; this is also pretty bad as far as it goes.

CA-03: Not enough in for me to be confident yet, but R+12 in a Trump+2 seat is not too shabby. Firm Lean R imo.

CA-09: Harder over 50% is enough for me to put this seat at Likely D.

CA-12: Simon looks like a pretty safe bet.

CA-13: I've seen a lot of doom over these results, but for such a Hispanic seat I actually don't think R+10 in the primary is apocalyptic for Gray, although they certainly indicate a close race at minimum. Tilt R imo.

CA-16: I think Low is gonna squeak it out over Simitian. Don't know which way this goes in November.

CA-22: This one's primary results are so all over the place that I have no idea what R+11 means for November. Tilt R.

CA-27: Garcia at 55% is enough for me to put this seat at Tilt R, minimum.

CA-29: Bernal (R) is advancing, and even if he weren't, Rivas wins in November.

CA-30: Friedman wins in November.

CA-31: Cisneros wins in November, but we've got to put an end to the stupid California primary system.

CA-34: Gomez vs. Kim (D) round 3; Gomez at 51% is enough to make this Lean Gomez.

CA-40: Kim (R) at 56% makes this a firm Lean R.

CA-41: Calvert at 53% isn't really that good. Tilt R.

CA-45: I think Tran advances, but Steel at 55% is enough for me to put this at a pretty firm Lean R.

CA-47: R+3 puts this firmly in the Tossup category. Maybe Tilt D; we'll have to see if Min is truly a weak candidate.

CA-49: Levin at 51% makes this seat Likely D.

Overall, these primary results seem pretty dismal for Democrats. Many of the seats where I think they stand a good chance are just Central Valley seats where I gave them the benefit of the doubt due to low Hispanic primary turnout. Progressives did fairly well, though, outside of the Senate race of course. What do y'all think?

Kim is at least likely R.