BI: US officials possibly hinting peace talks as Ukraine reaches stalemate, Israel-Hamas war rages

[Florida Man for Crime]

We gave them everything they asked.

What unmitigated ignorant bullsh*t

[RilakkuMAGA]

The West wants peace now, but there's no reason for Russia to indulge them. Russia spent the bulk of 2023 (ever since the Kharkov catastrophe) mobilizing its economy for war. The chance to sue for peace was after Kharkov (and even then, it's not clear that would have worked.)

Now, it's too late for any hope. Ukraine faces a very dark winter and  then they'll go to go into 2024, with drained manpower pools, against a very well-prepared Russia who will have no inclination to stop. Even if Ukraine gets the equipment it's been asking for, it won't have the men to use them.

It's over for Ukraine as a nation.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Ukraine faces a very dark winter and  then they'll go to go into 2024, with drained manpower pools, against a very well-prepared Russia who will have no inclination to stop. Even if Ukraine gets the equipment it's been asking for, it won't have the men to use them.

That's not even remotely close to being true.

France had a population of 39 million in 1914 at the start of World War 1,and suffered more than 5 million military casualties (killed and wounded) in World War 1.

Ukraine has a roughly similar population, around 36 million people. Current realistic estimates of total Ukrainian casualties are about 200,000 total, or roughly 4% of the French WW1 total.

Granted, there are some factors that reduce Ukraine's potential available manpower below what France (or other similarly situated countries) had then, such as the fact that the population is older and the fact that a couple million refugees left Ukraine at the star of the war.

However, there are also other factors that increase Ukraine's potential available manpower, most importantly the fact that women can serve in the Ukrainian armed forces, and also the fact that many support roles in a modern military do not actually really require people to be at the peak of physical fitness (most people are not in the infantry).

The current Ukrainian losses are certainly higher than they should be, a grisly testament to our failure to better help them, and we should certainly help them to reduce their losses by providing better equipment.

But the losses are not at all unsustainable from a historical perspective, and won't be until they number well into the millions.

[RilakkuMAGA]

Ukraine faces a very dark winter and  then they'll go to go into 2024, with drained manpower pools, against a very well-prepared Russia who will have no inclination to stop. Even if Ukraine gets the equipment it's been asking for, it won't have the men to use them.

That's not even remotely close to being true.

France had a population of 39 million in 1914 at the start of World War 1,and suffered more than 5 million military casualties (killed and wounded) in World War 1.

Ukraine has a roughly similar population, around 36 million people. Current realistic estimates of total Ukrainian casualties are about 200,000 total, or roughly 4% of the French WW1 total.

Granted, there are some factors that reduce Ukraine's potential available manpower below what France (or other similarly situated countries) had then, such as the fact that the population is older and the fact that a couple million refugees left Ukraine at the star of the war.

However, there are also other factors that increase Ukraine's potential available manpower, most importantly the fact that women can serve in the Ukrainian armed forces, and also the fact that many support roles in a modern military do not actually really require people to be at the peak of physical fitness (most people are not in the infantry).

The current Ukrainian losses are certainly higher than they should be, a grisly testament to our failure to better help them, and we should certainly help them to reduce their losses by providing better equipment.

But the losses are not at all unsustainable from a historical perspective, and won't be until they number well into the millions.

The 36 million number...includes Crimea and Russian-controlled Donbass, lol. I found a report from the Wilson center that pegs the prewar population of Kiev-controlled oblasts in Ukraine to roughly be around 31 million.

We have about eight million refugees, mostly women and children. What we have left should be around 23 million people, disproportionately elderly.

Oddly, we know a lot about the Russian death toll (BBC, NYT, and the Russian MoD seem to actually match up, funny enough), but very little about the Ukrainian death toll. Time Magazine however, records that the average age of a Ukrainian soldier is now 43 years old. That seems clear evidence that they've burned through most of their young men.

This isn't to predict imminent Ukrainian collapse, but something like a major offensive to retake territory will require manpower - A LOT OF IT - and considering that all the stockpiled equipment was not sufficient to retake Zaphorizia, I can't imagine a circumstance where Ukraine gets so much manpower and equipment that it can launch a more successful offensive than the 2023 one.

Not to mention that considering Russia took in around a million and a half Ukrainians as well, it actually seems to be coming out of this war as a net demographic winner, so they can basically just keep at it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine faces a very dark winter and  then they'll go to go into 2024, with drained manpower pools, against a very well-prepared Russia who will have no inclination to stop. Even if Ukraine gets the equipment it's been asking for, it won't have the men to use them.

That's not even remotely close to being true.

France had a population of 39 million in 1914 at the start of World War 1,and suffered more than 5 million military casualties (killed and wounded) in World War 1.

Ukraine has a roughly similar population, around 36 million people. Current realistic estimates of total Ukrainian casualties are about 200,000 total, or roughly 4% of the French WW1 total.

Granted, there are some factors that reduce Ukraine's potential available manpower below what France (or other similarly situated countries) had then, such as the fact that the population is older and the fact that a couple million refugees left Ukraine at the star of the war.

However, there are also other factors that increase Ukraine's potential available manpower, most importantly the fact that women can serve in the Ukrainian armed forces, and also the fact that many support roles in a modern military do not actually really require people to be at the peak of physical fitness (most people are not in the infantry).

The current Ukrainian losses are certainly higher than they should be, a grisly testament to our failure to better help them, and we should certainly help them to reduce their losses by providing better equipment.

But the losses are not at all unsustainable from a historical perspective, and won't be until they number well into the millions.

The 36 million number...includes Crimea and Russian-controlled Donbass, lol. I found a report from the Wilson center that pegs the prewar population of Kiev-controlled oblasts in Ukraine to roughly be around 31 million.

We have about eight million refugees, mostly women and children. What we have left should be around 23 million people, disproportionately elderly.

Oddly, we know a lot about the Russian death toll (BBC, NYT, and the Russian MoD seem to actually match up, funny enough), but very little about the Ukrainian death toll. Time Magazine however, records that the average age of a Ukrainian soldier is now 43 years old. That seems clear evidence that they've burned through most of their young men.

This isn't to predict imminent Ukrainian collapse, but something like a major offensive to retake territory will require manpower - A LOT OF IT - and considering that all the stockpiled equipment was not sufficient to retake Zaphorizia, I can't imagine a circumstance where Ukraine gets so much manpower and equipment that it can launch a more successful offensive than the 2023 one.

Not to mention that considering Russia took in around a million and a half Ukrainians as well, it actually seems to be coming out of this war as a net demographic winner, so they can basically just keep at it.

Actually we got a report the other week that UA death toll is 70k and it seems the reason for the higher age is that Ukraine has actually done a general mobilization of the population yet (though I suspect that they will soon)

[Person Man]

Ukraine faces a very dark winter and  then they'll go to go into 2024, with drained manpower pools, against a very well-prepared Russia who will have no inclination to stop. Even if Ukraine gets the equipment it's been asking for, it won't have the men to use them.

That's not even remotely close to being true.

France had a population of 39 million in 1914 at the start of World War 1,and suffered more than 5 million military casualties (killed and wounded) in World War 1.

Ukraine has a roughly similar population, around 36 million people. Current realistic estimates of total Ukrainian casualties are about 200,000 total, or roughly 4% of the French WW1 total.

Granted, there are some factors that reduce Ukraine's potential available manpower below what France (or other similarly situated countries) had then, such as the fact that the population is older and the fact that a couple million refugees left Ukraine at the star of the war.

However, there are also other factors that increase Ukraine's potential available manpower, most importantly the fact that women can serve in the Ukrainian armed forces, and also the fact that many support roles in a modern military do not actually really require people to be at the peak of physical fitness (most people are not in the infantry).

The current Ukrainian losses are certainly higher than they should be, a grisly testament to our failure to better help them, and we should certainly help them to reduce their losses by providing better equipment.

But the losses are not at all unsustainable from a historical perspective, and won't be until they number well into the millions.

The 36 million number...includes Crimea and Russian-controlled Donbass, lol. I found a report from the Wilson center that pegs the prewar population of Kiev-controlled oblasts in Ukraine to roughly be around 31 million.

We have about eight million refugees, mostly women and children. What we have left should be around 23 million people, disproportionately elderly.

Oddly, we know a lot about the Russian death toll (BBC, NYT, and the Russian MoD seem to actually match up, funny enough), but very little about the Ukrainian death toll. Time Magazine however, records that the average age of a Ukrainian soldier is now 43 years old. That seems clear evidence that they've burned through most of their young men.

This isn't to predict imminent Ukrainian collapse, but something like a major offensive to retake territory will require manpower - A LOT OF IT - and considering that all the stockpiled equipment was not sufficient to retake Zaphorizia, I can't imagine a circumstance where Ukraine gets so much manpower and equipment that it can launch a more successful offensive than the 2023 one.

Not to mention that considering Russia took in around a million and a half Ukrainians as well, it actually seems to be coming out of this war as a net demographic winner, so they can basically just keep at it.

Actually we got a report the other week that UA death toll is 70k and actually the reason for the higher age is that Ukraine has actually done a general mobilization of the population yet (though I suspect that they will soon)

Yes. Ukraine isn’t falling. They haven’t even started to really fight yet. And yes. The consequences of it falling will be very bad. 9/11 was bad. The foreclosures were bad. Trump and COVID was bad. This would be very bad.

[gerritcole]

Ukraine needs to open a second front in the war: perhaps entice Japan to take back the kurils and attempt to Re establish manchukuo in eastern Russia

[RilakkuMAGA]

Ukraine has made it clear that they will never recognize Russian control of Crimea. Ukraine in NATO ain’t happening any time soon.

If Ukraine isn't recognizing that, I doubt a peace deal happens. A Korean style cease-fire is still a possibility.

Yeah if Ukraine won't even recognize Crimea as Russian I doubt this war stops any time soon.
Ukraine can't win, Zelensky needs to do what's right for Ukrainians and negotiate peace to stop the killing.

Putin could easily do that as well, if he would, y'know, pull out of Ukraine and end this war in the first place.

But obviously he won't. And I'm assuming Zelensky cares more about his citizens lives than Putin does.

Poor assumption, especially given that proportionally Ukraine is being decimated a lot worse than Russia. which has not harmed the resolve of the government. Russia is actually net positive on demography, considering that roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians have migrated to Russia since the war started.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine has made it clear that they will never recognize Russian control of Crimea. Ukraine in NATO ain’t happening any time soon.

If Ukraine isn't recognizing that, I doubt a peace deal happens. A Korean style cease-fire is still a possibility.

Yeah if Ukraine won't even recognize Crimea as Russian I doubt this war stops any time soon.
Ukraine can't win, Zelensky needs to do what's right for Ukrainians and negotiate peace to stop the killing.

Putin could easily do that as well, if he would, y'know, pull out of Ukraine and end this war in the first place.

But obviously he won't. And I'm assuming Zelensky cares more about his citizens lives than Putin does.

Poor assumption, especially given that proportionally Ukraine is being decimated a lot worse than Russia. which has not harmed the resolve of the government. Russia is actually net positive on demography, considering that roughly 1.5 million Ukrainians have migrated to Russia since the war started.

What an utterly gross way to describe their kidnapping campaign

[Red Velvet]

All this talk of peace comes right on time for 2024, an US electoral year. So predictable.

[Mr. Illini]

We’ve been hearing from certain people that it’s “over” for Ukraine since February 2022. These individuals are embarrassing themselves.

[Progressive Pessimist]

All this talk of peace comes right on time for 2024, an US electoral year. So predictable.

Timing is everything in politics, much like comedy. It's why Biden shouldn't be counted out.

If you have a problem with that, take it up with the average American and their inability to remember or care about anything over a month old, or probably even less.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

All this talk of peace comes right on time for 2024, an US electoral year. So predictable.

Timing is everything in politics, much like comedy. It's why Biden shouldn't be counted out.

If you have a problem with that, take it ip with the average American and their inability to remember or care about anything over a minth old, or probably even less.

It was rather telling that the Bush administration was talking up imminent threat of Iraqi WMD but said the timing wasn't right in August 2002.

[Hindsight was 2020]

All this talk of peace comes right on time for 2024, an US electoral year. So predictable.

Or it’s a clickbait article made by a notorious Russian supporting op for other Russian supporters like you to gobble up 🤷‍♂️

[Pres Mike]

I support peace talks. And I support the US secretly pushing Ukraine to peace talks.

[Woody]

Ukraine has made it clear that they will never recognize Russian control of Crimea. Ukraine in NATO ain’t happening any time soon.

If Ukraine isn't recognizing that, I doubt a peace deal happens. A Korean style cease-fire is still a possibility.

Yeah if Ukraine won't even recognize Crimea as Russian I doubt this war stops any time soon.
Ukraine can't win, Zelensky needs to do what's right for Ukrainians and negotiate peace to stop the killing.

Putin could easily do that as well, if he would, y'know, pull out of Ukraine and end this war in the first place.

But obviously he won't. And I'm assuming Zelensky cares more about his citizens lives than Putin does.

Zelensky is a psychopath.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine has made it clear that they will never recognize Russian control of Crimea. Ukraine in NATO ain’t happening any time soon.

If Ukraine isn't recognizing that, I doubt a peace deal happens. A Korean style cease-fire is still a possibility.

Yeah if Ukraine won't even recognize Crimea as Russian I doubt this war stops any time soon.
Ukraine can't win, Zelensky needs to do what's right for Ukrainians and negotiate peace to stop the killing.

Putin could easily do that as well, if he would, y'know, pull out of Ukraine and end this war in the first place.

But obviously he won't. And I'm assuming Zelensky cares more about his citizens lives than Putin does.

Zelensky is a psychopath.

Talk about pot calling the kettle black