NJ and Polling

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why does it seem like NJ always polls more Republican than it votes?  Case and point 2004 and 2006.  Also, it seems like the Republicans always start out terrible, gain steam, and fall off at the end. 

[Alcon]

I do believe that someone explained this.  It relates to independents, who tend to claim undecided until the last moment, where they usually return to the Democratic flock (rare exceptions like Whitman notwithstanding).

Don't take that as sacrosanct, though.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I do believe that someone explained this.  It relates to independents, who tend to claim undecided until the last moment, where they usually return to the Democratic flock (rare exceptions like Whitman notwithstanding).

Don't take that as sacrosanct, though.

I think it could be that and I think that is caused by, "Well, I really don't like this guy and don't want to vote for him, but I gotta vote Democrat when I get in that booth"

[Alcon]

I do believe that someone explained this.  It relates to independents, who tend to claim undecided until the last moment, where they usually return to the Democratic flock (rare exceptions like Whitman notwithstanding).

Don't take that as sacrosanct, though.

I think it could be that and I think that is caused by, "Well, I really don't like this guy and don't want to vote for him, but I gotta vote Democrat when I get in that booth"

That's kind of a biased phrasing, but in essence, that's the idea.

Or, rather, they don't like the opponent enough to justify voting Republican.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I do believe that someone explained this.  It relates to independents, who tend to claim undecided until the last moment, where they usually return to the Democratic flock (rare exceptions like Whitman notwithstanding).

Don't take that as sacrosanct, though.

I think it could be that and I think that is caused by, "Well, I really don't like this guy and don't want to vote for him, but I gotta vote Democrat when I get in that booth"

That's kind of a biased phrasing, but in essence, that's the idea.

Or, rather, they don't like the opponent enough to justify voting Republican.

Idk if it has anything to do with the opponent, it seems like the state is just blindly partisan.  The Democrat always wins but they hardly ever break 55% and most times are well under it.  (Exception being McGreevey in 01' I believe)

[Verily]

I do believe that someone explained this.  It relates to independents, who tend to claim undecided until the last moment, where they usually return to the Democratic flock (rare exceptions like Whitman notwithstanding).

Don't take that as sacrosanct, though.

I think it could be that and I think that is caused by, "Well, I really don't like this guy and don't want to vote for him, but I gotta vote Democrat when I get in that booth"

That's kind of a biased phrasing, but in essence, that's the idea.

Or, rather, they don't like the opponent enough to justify voting Republican.

Idk if it has anything to do with the opponent, it seems like the state is just blindly partisan.  The Democrat always wins but they hardly ever break 55% and most times are well under it.  (Exception being McGreevey in 01' I believe)

Or it could be, as I argue, that the average New Jerseyan hates the Democrats (and their candidates) but hates the Republicans (and their candidates) more. That's not partisanship, that's just negativity, and it fits with New Jersey routinely giving everyone low approval ratings.

[minionofmidas]

Mr Moderate

The times Menendez started pulling away were also around the same time that Corzine increased on his lead in 05, same with Kerry in 04 (remember the close polls) and Gore in 2000.  the state has had a long history of polling more Republican than it has actually voted and the polls have generally started to turn around and closer to the final result in the last couple weeks.  Kean didn't lose due to Foley, it was just the earlier polls showed things better for the GOp than it actually was, it happens almost every year.

Yeah, New Jersey is like Germany in polling. Simply put, its right wing upper middle class minority is just very politicised and never undecided in polls no matter how far out of election day, leading to polls out of election season, especially ones that try to wean out weak leaners, to be more of an exercise in hilarity than anything else.

Put it another way, New Jersey's political fault lines are more strongly about class than most other parts of the US'.

[Conan]

It's hard to get a good grip on polling when the vast majority of people in the state are independent and you have machines effectively producing mass amounts of people to the polls. In any case, you have a poll, take the democrats number and add 10 to it.