Emerson. Trump +2

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

[DaleCooper]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

Young people don't click on spam messages or pop-ups either.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

Young people don't click on spam messages or pop-ups either.

Yes but the online share should be weighted properly in the poll. It also has Generic D ahead of Generic R by 20 among young voters, close to the 2020 result. Biden is probably headed for a loss in young voters, even if polls exaggerate the effect. A majority of young voters are marginal low propensity voters who don’t tune into politics much (usually this group has the lowest turnout and only half as much 18-29 voted in 2022 as compared to 2020), not hardcore Bernie political activists anyway, so I wonder if your own circle is just not representative.

It seems like you are simply dismissing polls you don’t like. You don’t seem to be critical of polls showing Biden up right now or polls in general in previous election cycles. The truth is that polls aren’t off by any more than they used to be, and Biden is in dire straits right now.

[DaleCooper]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

Young people don't click on spam messages or pop-ups either.

Yes but the online share should be weighted properly in the poll. It also has Generic D ahead of Generic R by 20 among young voters, close to the 2020 result. Biden is probably headed for a loss in young voters, even if polls exaggerate the effect. A majority of young voters are marginal low propensity voters who don’t tune into politics much (usually this group has the lowest turnout and only half as much 18-29 voted in 2022 as compared to 2020), not hardcore Bernie political activists anyway, so I wonder if your own circle is just not representative.

It seems like you are simply dismissing polls you don’t like. You don’t seem to be critical of polls showing Biden up right now or polls in general in previous election cycles. The truth is that polls aren’t off by any more than they used to be, and Biden is in dire straits right now.

No I am dismissing polls that are obviously fake.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

Young people don't click on spam messages or pop-ups either.

Yes but the online share should be weighted properly in the poll. It also has Generic D ahead of Generic R by 20 among young voters, close to the 2020 result. Biden is probably headed for a loss in young voters, even if polls exaggerate the effect. A majority of young voters are marginal low propensity voters who don’t tune into politics much (usually this group has the lowest turnout and only half as much 18-29 voted in 2022 as compared to 2020), not hardcore Bernie political activists anyway, so I wonder if your own circle is just not representative.

It seems like you are simply dismissing polls you don’t like. You don’t seem to be critical of polls showing Biden up right now or polls in general in previous election cycles. The truth is that polls aren’t off by any more than they used to be, and Biden is in dire straits right now.

No I am dismissing polls that are obviously fake.

They are obviously fake to you because they show Biden down. They got the national popular vote exactly correct in 2022.

From looking at your past posts you were okay with polls in 2020 showing Biden way up. Idk how you can even claim to have a grasp on young voters when half of them don’t even show up in midterms.

[DaleCooper]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

Young people don't click on spam messages or pop-ups either.

Yes but the online share should be weighted properly in the poll. It also has Generic D ahead of Generic R by 20 among young voters, close to the 2020 result. Biden is probably headed for a loss in young voters, even if polls exaggerate the effect. A majority of young voters are marginal low propensity voters who don’t tune into politics much (usually this group has the lowest turnout and only half as much 18-29 voted in 2022 as compared to 2020), not hardcore Bernie political activists anyway, so I wonder if your own circle is just not representative.

It seems like you are simply dismissing polls you don’t like. You don’t seem to be critical of polls showing Biden up right now or polls in general in previous election cycles. The truth is that polls aren’t off by any more than they used to be, and Biden is in dire straits right now.

No I am dismissing polls that are obviously fake.

They are obviously fake to you because they show Biden down. They got the national popular vote exactly correct in 2022.

From looking at your past polls you were okay with polls in 2020 showing Biden way up.

Those 2020 polls were proven fake and now I don't trust them anymore. When a poll shows a fake result (like Trump winning young voters or Biden nearly winning the white vote) I disregard it as fake rather than assume they're onto something.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

If Trump is barely winning the 200 young people in America who still have landline telephones then he's toast.

EDIT: I just read that this sample of young people is also practically tied when choosing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. If you believe this is an accurate reflection of young voters, then you're dumb. Sorry to break it to you.

This was partly an online poll as well.

Young people don't click on spam messages or pop-ups either.

Yes but the online share should be weighted properly in the poll. It also has Generic D ahead of Generic R by 20 among young voters, close to the 2020 result. Biden is probably headed for a loss in young voters, even if polls exaggerate the effect. A majority of young voters are marginal low propensity voters who don’t tune into politics much (usually this group has the lowest turnout and only half as much 18-29 voted in 2022 as compared to 2020), not hardcore Bernie political activists anyway, so I wonder if your own circle is just not representative.

It seems like you are simply dismissing polls you don’t like. You don’t seem to be critical of polls showing Biden up right now or polls in general in previous election cycles. The truth is that polls aren’t off by any more than they used to be, and Biden is in dire straits right now.

No I am dismissing polls that are obviously fake.

They are obviously fake to you because they show Biden down. They got the national popular vote exactly correct in 2022.

From looking at your past polls you were okay with polls in 2020 showing Biden way up.

Those 2020 polls were proven fake and now I don't trust them anymore. When a poll shows a fake result (like Trump winning young voters or Biden nearly winning the white vote) I disregard it as fake rather than assume they're onto something.

Polls are generally around as accurate as they used to be. They are supposed to have margins of error. The average national miss is about 3 points, and the misses have all favored Republicans or been neutral in the last 5 cycles.

Polls ie told us that Democrats were doing much better than expected in the Senate, despite the House national popular vote shifting 7 points towards Republicans, which is what happened. They also told us ie that Joe Kent wasn’t safe to win. The party strategists don’t seem to be discarding polls as you do in any case.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map

[DaleCooper]

Polls are generally around as accurate as they used to be. They are supposed to have margins of error. The average national miss is about 3 points, and the misses have all favored Republicans or been neutral in the last 5 cycles.

Polls ie told us that Democrats were doing much better than expected in the Senate, despite the House national popular vote shifting 7 points towards Republicans, which is what happened. They also told us ie that Joe Kent wasn’t safe to win. The party strategists don’t seem to be discarding polls as you do in any case.

Party strategists tend to be almost universally bad at their jobs.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Polls are generally around as accurate as they used to be. They are supposed to have margins of error. The average national miss is about 3 points, and the misses have all favored Republicans or been neutral in the last 5 cycles.

Polls ie told us that Democrats were doing much better than expected in the Senate, despite the House national popular vote shifting 7 points towards Republicans, which is what happened. They also told us ie that Joe Kent wasn’t safe to win. The party strategists don’t seem to be discarding polls as you do in any case.

Party strategists tend to be almost universally bad at their jobs.

I’m also curious what you actually see with young voters anecdotally, and why I’m seeing something completely different in my own life (I’m getting that 18-22s who just aged into the 18-39 group are way more R than 30-34s, the group aging out of 18-29, were when they were at the same age)