Is Biden more or less vulnerable than Trump was at this time in 2019?

[Tekken_Guy]

Is Biden more vulnerable or less vulnerable than he was at this time in 2019?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Clearly more vulnerable. Pre-covid Trump was well on his way to a solid re-election win.
Right now Biden isn't even favored if the election were held today.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not entirely sure. Maybe the same but for different reasons. Trump was vulnerable because of his corruption and personality in spite of a stable economy where he would be disadvantaged against a strong Democratic challenger. While Biden is presiding over a more complicated economy and has his own personal weaknesses with his age but isn't as polarizing, and is facing a more divisive likely challenger.

In time I think his position will improve, much like how Trump's got worse, but for now it's kind of a wash, if I am truly considering everything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a 303/225 EC map as Cook and Sabato and Nate Silver says 51/49 S Kunce replaced Manchin in S and 222)213 DH Ds net about 10 S and Ds net NH and MS G that's my final Prediction

Give it take AL new H seat and Jeff Jackson losing in NC but he is gonna run against Tom Tillis anyways, Collins votes for Voting Rights Ossoff wins reelection and Ds keep the H in a Biden 2nd T and Tom Tillis loses Reelection to Jeff Jackson and it becomes 52/48 D S but of course DC statehood 54/48

I have no idea on NH, NC, LA or MS G but  they are 50/50


As I said before it's 4 percentage pts unemployment it was 10 under Trump and his tax cuts for the rich became unpopular like it was in 2008 which Bush W tax cuts we're


When Biden debates Trump he will once again with. The help of a Secular moderator say tax cuts for rich is deeply unpopular Trump tax cuts he passed in 2017

Lol we have a war in Ukraine Rich shouldn't have tax CUTS

[Redban]

Clearly more vulnerable. Pre-covid Trump was well on his way to a solid re-election win.
Right now Biden isn't even favored if the election were held today.

Devil’s advocate - Biden was already leading Trump by double-digits in head to head polling in 2019. Biden was also already crossing 50% in many of those polls too

Granted: the polls were wrong in 2020 by 3-4%, and Biden at this point last cycle wasn’t yet a candidate in the news every day . But still, he had a big polling advantage

[DaleCooper]

I think a very narrow victory was always the best case scenario for Trump's reelection against Biden in 2020. I don't believe that COVID hurt him as much as people think. Sure, he recommended that people shoot up Lysol, but he's been saying stupid things like that for years and it doesn't offend his equally stupid voters. I actually think if anything the events of 2020 may have helped him a little bit because I suspect the the left's defense of rioting helped him at least a little bit more than COVID hurt him.

[oldtimer]

Less vulnerable than Trump in 2019, more vulnerable than anyone in living memory apart from Trump, unless you count Carter.

Here is a comparison.

August 2023 E.V., by lead of 3% or more on average.
Biden 236 Trump 246

August 2019
Biden 348 Trump 81

August 2015
Hillary 294 Trump 206

And I recall that Obama was also above 270 in August of 2011.

[Pericles]

Trump had a blue wave when the economy was great, Biden lost just 9 seats despite the economy being a lot worse. Based on the actual evidence the logical assumption is that Biden has a better starting position.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A 303)225 map is actually a landslide

[Redban]

Trump had a blue wave when the economy was great, Biden lost just 9 seats despite the economy being a lot worse. Based on the actual evidence the logical assumption is that Biden has a better starting position.

^ extreme oversimplification up here

1). Biden wasn't on the ballot in 2022

2). Midterms don't correspond with presidential elections. Dems lost by a landslide in 2010, yet Dems won comfortably in 2012. Repubs won by a landslide in 2014, yet Repubs barely won in 2016. Repubs lost by a landslide in 2018, yet Repubs barely lost in 2020 etc.

3). The reason Dems held on to many Senate and governor seats is that many Repubs split their ballots, which can't be counted on in a presidential election. Repubs beat Dems in turnout by nearly 3%

4). There were competing forces in the 2022 midterms, working for and against the Dems. On one hand, the economy was bad, which worked against Dems. On the other hand, the Dodds decision lit a fire under many Dems who would've otherwise sat it out. It wasn't just the simple, "The economy was bad, so Dems should have lost by a landslide" that you want it to be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol, we won WI and PA in April and May in 23 already WI judge race by 11 and PA 52/48  and Trump lost in 10 percent unemployment and unemployment is 4 percentage pts and we are gonna win WI, PA and MI it's VBM not same day voting our VBzm is far superior in WI, MI and PA I know Redban think Trump is so strong but Bush W was stronger than Trump he is a paper tiger

Bush W got Reelection in 2004 5 percentage pts unemployment no inc loses in unemployment so low those are the facts and polls showing Trump +1 or 6 leads have been contradicted by Polls showing Biden up 3, Cygnal, Morning Consult and You Gov all had Biden +3

Like I said it's a 303/225 Map

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Trump had a blue wave when the economy was great, Biden lost just 9 seats despite the economy being a lot worse. Based on the actual evidence the logical assumption is that Biden has a better starting position.

^ extreme oversimplification up here

1). Biden wasn't on the ballot in 2022

2). Midterms don't correspond with presidential elections. Dems lost by a landslide in 2010, yet Dems won comfortably in 2012. Repubs won by a landslide in 2014, yet Repubs barely won in 2016. Repubs lost by a landslide in 2018, yet Repubs barely lost in 2020 etc.

3). The reason Dems held on to many Senate and governor seats is that many Repubs split their ballots, which can't be counted on in a presidential election. Repubs beat Dems in turnout by nearly 3%

4). There were competing forces in the 2022 midterms, working for and against the Dems. On one hand, the economy was bad, which worked against Dems. On the other hand, the Dodds decision lit a fire under many Dems who would've otherwise sat it out. It wasn't just the simple, "The economy was bad, so Dems should have lost by a landslide" that you want it to be.

When GOP had a wash midterm in 2002, George Bush had very high approval ratings. Same thing with the democrats and Clinton in 1998. In this last midterm, Biden approvals were absolute garbage and yet they couldn’t even win one seat in the senate. And the idea that Kelly and Masto etc were so much stronger than generic D is massive cope. They may have been slightly stronger but their voting records were much more akin to someone like Tammy Baldwin than Joe Manchin

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said we already won WI and PA the same Emerson poll that had Biden down Two has Biden plus 1 in MI, Red an really thinks Biden is gonna lose in 4 percentage pts unemployment yeah sure in 14 mnths not 60 days


What is pulling Biden polls down is the Hunter Biden story, Biden too is corrupted but Trump has J 6

There is another special election in PA this month in Pa and Ds are favs to win it that's MI and PA and WI Rs already lost the Judge race because Rs underpoll whenever Johnson isn't on the ballot


If Trump wins he gave out stimulus checks last time Redban isn't gonna get a 2K check, Trump is gonna continue cutting taxes only on the Rich , that's why Ds on the Forum dislike Trump he isn't gonna do anything extra except give more funding to War in Ukraine like Reagan did on Iran Contra and Bush W on Iraq War instead of domestic Spending


Reagan Star Wars wasn't built because he spent the surplus on his tax cuts and we went thru an 82 Recession

[Sir Mohamed]

Somewhat less vulnerable I would say because neither Trump nor any of the GOP field are strong challengers.

What works somewhat to Biden's disadvantage is that unlike Trump in 2019 he almost certainly needs an absolute majority of the vote again or at least a 3-4 pt. margin to get to 270 EVs. Trump never needed an actual majority and he nearly won the EC in 2020 with 46.8% of the vote. If Biden falls short of 50%, his odds significantly decrease unless Trump also drops below the 45% mark. Latter seems unlikely, even McCain in 2008 got 45.7%.

[LostInOhio]

I actually think they're in about the same position. I believe Trump would've solidly defeated Biden in 2020 had COVID never happened. COVID ruined the economy and motivated millions of people to crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump. It would take a similar catastrophe to doom Biden. A recession or a serious health crisis (and I do mean serious, as in Biden is incapacitated, not just that he got sick for a few days or something) in the second half of 2024 would do the same thing to Biden.

[cherry mandarin]

Is  Biden  more or less  vulnerable  than  Trump was  at  this time  in 2019?

Slightly less.

2). The Senate seats went to Democrats because many Republicans split their tickets, which you can't count on during the midst of a presidential election.

Generally speaking, you'd think  that, in a presidential year, particularly  with  so many  Republican voters  dissatisfied with  Trump, split-ticket voting  would only increase compared to  the midterm  preceding it ...

Trump [isn't a] strong challenger ...

He's literally  the former president, dude. How can you even get any stronger  than  that?

Besides, who was  the "strong challenger" in 2020  that  you were  referring to? Warren? Sanders? Buttigieg? Blocker?

Biden probably needs to receive either an absolute majority, or win by 3 to 4 points  in  the NPV

I debunked  the theory  that, going into  2024, the Republican EC edge  should be able to sustain itself  in  any meaningful fashion  in  an earlier post, using Facts and Data!