Trump 2025-2029 versus Biden 2025-2029 ... forget their promises, what about Predictions?

[Blue3]

Trump 2025-2029 versus Biden 2025-2029


Forget their campaign promises, and let's focus on realistic Predictions.
* What would a second Biden term for 2025-2029 most probably actually look like?
* What would a second Trump term for 2025-2029 most probably actually look like?

Both things within their control, as well as likely external events and their different reactions and the rippling consequences to those reactions.



What would Biden actually try to do by legislation and executive order in a second term, and which of them would he realistically accomplish?
- Which foreign crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Trump, and what would the consequences of that be?
- Which domestic crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Trump, and what would the consequences of that be?

What would Trump actually try to do by legislation and executive order in a second term, and which of them would he realistically accomplish?
- Which foreign crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Biden, and what would the consequences of that be?
- Which domestic crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Biden, and what would the consequences of that be?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden:

Best: A Democratic version of Nixon's first term

Most Likely: Probably a repeat of the last 2 years for the entire 4 years

Worst: A Democratic Version of Bush's 2nd term

Trump:

Best: Similar to how Trump's term prior to COVID was like

Most Likely: Probably similar to how Netanyahu's comeback term was until October 7th but for the entire 4 year period domestically. So basically just pure chaos for 4 years . Abroad goes Paleocon towards Eastern Europe but not Eastern Asia

Worst Case:  An American version of Boris Yeltsin tenure including a 1993 style crises

My ranking of the 6 would go: Trump's Best Case> Biden's Best Case > Biden's Most Likely > Biden's Worst Case > Trump's Most Likely> Trump's Worst Case


I won’t vote for Trump cause of how bad even the most likely scenario is

[LostInOhio]

A second Biden term would probably be rough for the Democrats in the long term. In the short term it'd be good because they'd finally eliminate Donald Trump from the political discourse and may be able to install a SCOTUS justice or two, but in the long term they would have to contend with whatever demagogue happens to pop up in his wake in 2028. I think Biden would be at Bush levels of unpopularity by the end of it. I also think progressives would eventually start steering the ship after he's gone - his brand of politics will become as unpopular as Bush is in today's GOP.

Trump's second term would be similarly disastrous. Democrats would be headed for a trifecta by the end of the decade while the GOP would never be able to ditch the Trumpists, being that they'd overtake the entire party. I legitimately think such a timeline would take us to a future in which Trump is the only Republican president in roughly 20-30 years.

[DrScholl]

Biden 2nd Term:

Same as the first

Trump 2nd Term:

Heavy restrictions on criticism of Trump. With Elon Musk running Twitter anyone who said anything would have any personal identifying information reported to Trump staff and organizations like Turning Point that would personally harass them.

Trump critics would turn up missing or arrested on suspicious charges.

Attempts to cancel elections or overturn results.

Numerous people making decisions on behalf of Trump in instances where he is mentally incapable of doing so.

[2016]

Donald Trump is a criminal and should never get anywhere near the White House!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If Trump and and his R trifecta play their cards right, they can lock Dems out of power for a decade. The GOP is just too incompetent to do that though.

[Blue3]

What would Biden actually try to do by legislation and executive order in a second term, and which of them would he realistically accomplish?
- Which foreign crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Trump, and what would the consequences of that be?
- Which domestic crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Trump, and what would the consequences of that be?

What would Trump actually try to do by legislation and executive order in a second term, and which of them would he realistically accomplish?
- Which foreign crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Biden, and what would the consequences of that be?
- Which domestic crises are likely to pop up, and how would he react and deal with them differently than Biden, and what would the consequences of that be?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's really getting close to Eday

[Vice President Christian Man]

Biden: See OSR

Trump:

Best: Similar to Reagan's first term in terms of optimism and charm but with a more economically interventionist agenda (Baby bonuses, paid family leave, future cities). The economy recovers, there is peace at home and abroad, and whoever Trump's VP is wins comfortably in 2028.

Most likely: A combination between Grover Cleveland's 2nd term, Herbert Hoover's 1st term, and Netanyahu's 3rd term. The economy continues to explode, people riot and protest on the street, the government cracks down on dissent leaving to countless arrests and potentially deaths, and combined with a neo-spoil system type of federal government, public frustration leads to a situation similar to Israel's right before 10/7 with a constant stream of protestors outside the White House. Foreign actors take advantage of the civil unrest and publish misleading/false stories both in favor and opposition to the government in order to create public distrust and escalate existing divisions. Trump allows Christian nationalists to have free reign over social policy, leading to many demonstrations in opposition. There's an immigration crisis worse than the "kids in cages" one, although the reaction largely falls on partisan lines so the outrage is muted. There are attempts to limit what the press can report but ultimately the courts strike down any form of limits. A Democrat wins in 2028 and substantial action is taken by the courts and lawmakers to bar a 1/6 situation from repeating despite the possibility for rioting. A Nixon/Reaganesque type of scandal is not out of the question although I don't know what that would be.

Worst: Creates a Fujimori/Erdogan type government where political opposition is suppressed and/or "disappeared", elections are rigged in favor of the GOP, and there's substantial amounts of corruption, nepotism, and cronyism. The Dem's are painted as "groomers" or "pedophiles" and are forced to go into hiding or face political persecution, with many high ranking Dem officials and celebrities arrested. Immigration on the Southern border is effectively halted leading to what's going on in Texas on steroids'. The US stops funding Ukraine which leads to a dwindling in EU relations (minus Hungary), and creates a Pakinstan/India type conflict with Canada who has attacked the US for its democratic backsliding and refusal to stand with the West. There are substantial crackdowns on the 1A especially freedom of the press, and people face steep fines and the possibility of jail time for criticizing the government.

[DaleCooper]

Neither will survive their second term.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Biden 2nd Term:

Same as the first

Trump 2nd Term:

Heavy restrictions on criticism of Trump. With Elon Musk running Twitter anyone who said anything would have any personal identifying information reported to Trump staff and organizations like Turning Point that would personally harass them.

Trump critics would turn up missing or arrested on suspicious charges.

Attempts to cancel elections or overturn results.

Numerous people making decisions on behalf of Trump in instances where he is mentally incapable of doing so.

Nice fanfic

[dw93]

Biden:

Best Case: The economy and the geopolitical situation steadily improve, 2026 ranges from a red ripple to a blue ripple, and Biden despite his age and visible slowness finishes out the term and is sitting on neutral or slightly positive approval ratings. The Democrats have a legitimately competitive primary so that a stronger candidate than Harris gets the nomination. Said Democratic nominee (Whitmer, Shapiro, Warnock if the Dems win the GA Gov. in '26) go on to beat a non Trump MAGA GOP nominee decisively in 2028.

Most likely: Similar to 2023-24 until a health issue or God forbid death drive him out of office. Harris becomes President by the close of 2026 and as President she's more or less Obama without the charisma and is presiding over even more intense polarization and a geopolitical situation that grows even more unstable by the day. She goes on to lose in 2028 to someone like Youngkin if we're lucky, or someone like J.D. Vance or some other MAGA drone if we're not lucky.

Worst case: Biden dies or resigns midway through 2025, Harris assumes the Presidency, and all hell breaks lose (mostly for reasons beyond her control). Russia ends up conquering Ukraine despite all efforts, the U.S. gets dragged into a war in the Middle East, most likely with Iran, and China possibly invades Taiwan. To top it off, the economy goes into a nasty recession, creating even more societal and cultural unrest.  The 2026 midterms resemble 2014 in the Senate and resembles 1994 or 2010 in the house, with 2028 being as close to 1980 for the GOP it can get in such a polarized environment.

Trump:

Best Case: He wins even more narrowly than Biden did in 2020, meaning the Democrats flip the House and the GOP only flip WV and one of MT or OH in the Senate. A Democratic House, Murkowski and Collins remaining in the Senate, a record number of Biden appointees on the lower courts, and the Supreme Court not striking down rulings of said lower courts or just outright openly siding against Trump is enough to keep his worst impulses and any part of Project 2025 from becoming a reality. The Democrats sweep 2026, a strong Democratic nominee wipes the floor with Trump's VP in 2028 and we can finally have a chance at weeding MAGA out of political discourse. Trump also avoids dumping a can of fire on what is the Middle East and China doesn't get too ambitious.

Most likely scenario: All but one of the five states that decided 2020 flip to Trump (PA, MI, or WI are that one state), on top of NV. He has a narrower PV loss than 2016. Beyond that, basically what OSR said, though I think Trump would end up being Paleocon toward Asia as Xi Jinping would just stroke Trump's ego and keep him away, meaning China likely invades Taiwan. He'd attempts to restrict the press and crack down on his opposition but the courts fend off enough of said attempts. Some of Project 2025 becomes reality though.

Worst Case scenario: Trump wins decisively and what OSR and Whip of Peace Christian Man  in their worst case scenario for Trump becomes a reality. Blue states more or less unofficially secede to keep the worst of this dystopia from effecting their states/citizens while the rest of the country more or less is just shy of resembling Gilead from A Handmaid's Tale. China, Iran, and Russia exploit the divisions and oppression to their advantage, causing a war that makes WWII look like a walk in the park by comparison.

[Person Man]

I really want to hear more about this.

[DrScholl]

Biden 2nd Term:

Same as the first

Trump 2nd Term:

Heavy restrictions on criticism of Trump. With Elon Musk running Twitter anyone who said anything would have any personal identifying information reported to Trump staff and organizations like Turning Point that would personally harass them.

Trump critics would turn up missing or arrested on suspicious charges.

Attempts to cancel elections or overturn results.

Numerous people making decisions on behalf of Trump in instances where he is mentally incapable of doing so.

Nice fanfic

I recall a time people said the idea of Trump refusing to leave office was ridiculous. None of what I posted is farfetched after January 6th.

[MABA 2020]

A second Trump term is difficult to predict because I don't want to go too far into alarmism and predict the end of the republic but at the same time the trend has been that the GOP has become more radicalised and more authoritarian over time. The first term went further down that road than I would've guessed in 2016, there's no reason to be believe that following a vindicating Trump victory the party wouldn't continue and accelerate their assault on democracy.

A second Biden term on the other hand I think is pretty foreseeable, It'll be a continuation of the status quo since Democrats will probably lose the Senate even if they win back the house nothing too big will get done.

[pikachu]

Ironically i’d bet on Trump having an inflationary economic agenda with tax cuts and tariffs.

[Devils30]

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A second Biden term would probably be rough for the Democrats in the long term. In the short term it'd be good because they'd finally eliminate Donald Trump from the political discourse and may be able to install a SCOTUS justice or two, but in the long term they would have to contend with whatever demagogue happens to pop up in his wake in 2028. I think Biden would be at Bush levels of unpopularity by the end of it. I also think progressives would eventually start steering the ship after he's gone - his brand of politics will become as unpopular as Bush is in today's GOP.

Trump's second term would be similarly disastrous. Democrats would be headed for a trifecta by the end of the decade while the GOP would never be able to ditch the Trumpists, being that they'd overtake the entire party. I legitimately think such a timeline would take us to a future in which Trump is the only Republican president in roughly 20-30 years.

I mentioned some of this in an earlier thread. The GOP could be a long term winner with a 2024 loss.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=575727.msg9326461#msg9326461

Biden winning and everything not being perfect could lead to major fatigue with the party. Not to mention a Harris nomination and general election loss in 2028. The left's reaction to a Harris loss might be to say "America is a racist country that is irredeemable." The result could be an AOC nomination in 2032 that contains everything that is the worst you see from students for justice in Palestine and 3 blue states on a good night.

Meanwhile Trump could lead to a blue wave in 2026 and 53-55 Dem Senators in 2028, in theory. In practice it is unclear, the Democratic Party might have an all out meltdown if Biden loses and progressives could burn it completely out at the same time Trump deports a lot of their foreign supporters on campuses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are on the pathway to a Filibuster proof Trifecta.  If we win AZ, OH, MT, NEB that's 51/49 and we can get 222DH and a 303Prez , if we fall short the S map is 303 thru 28 Collins, Daines, Tillis, Sullivan are vulnerable in 26 and Johnson and Vance are vulnerable in 28 so we are gonna get it anyway

[EastwoodS]

A second Biden term would probably be rough for the Democrats in the long term. In the short term it'd be good because they'd finally eliminate Donald Trump from the political discourse and may be able to install a SCOTUS justice or two, but in the long term they would have to contend with whatever demagogue happens to pop up in his wake in 2028. I think Biden would be at Bush levels of unpopularity by the end of it. I also think progressives would eventually start steering the ship after he's gone - his brand of politics will become as unpopular as Bush is in today's GOP.

Trump's second term would be similarly disastrous. Democrats would be headed for a trifecta by the end of the decade while the GOP would never be able to ditch the Trumpists, being that they'd overtake the entire party. I legitimately think such a timeline would take us to a future in which Trump is the only Republican president in roughly 20-30 years.

you're silly.

[Devils30]

A second Biden term would probably be rough for the Democrats in the long term. In the short term it'd be good because they'd finally eliminate Donald Trump from the political discourse and may be able to install a SCOTUS justice or two, but in the long term they would have to contend with whatever demagogue happens to pop up in his wake in 2028. I think Biden would be at Bush levels of unpopularity by the end of it. I also think progressives would eventually start steering the ship after he's gone - his brand of politics will become as unpopular as Bush is in today's GOP.

Trump's second term would be similarly disastrous. Democrats would be headed for a trifecta by the end of the decade while the GOP would never be able to ditch the Trumpists, being that they'd overtake the entire party. I legitimately think such a timeline would take us to a future in which Trump is the only Republican president in roughly 20-30 years.

you're silly.

If Russia takes Ukraine and China takes Taiwan in a Trump second term, Trump will have approvals like Bush in 2008 if not worse. And you won't get a GOP soonafter if this happens.

Now will it? Ehh, I lean no. Trump for all his isolationist talk loves the idea of bombing someone and bragging about it so my guess is he would defend Taiwan.