What would the electoral map be if the GOP got 25% of the black vote?

[Cyrusman]

How would the electoral map change/or be the same if everything stayed the same demographic wise , but the GOP managed to get 25% of the national black vote, resulting in a 75-25 Democrat advantage, which is down from their normal 85-90% they normally get.

[WalterWhite]

How would the electoral map change/or be the same if everything stayed the same demographic wise , but the GOP managed to get 25% of the national black vote, resulting in a 75-25 Democrat advantage, which is down from their normal 85-90% they normally get.

Virginia would become a tossup. Florida would be about R+7%, instead of R+3%. North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas would all be safe Republican states.

[Roll Roons]

GA, NC, OH and TX would be totally out of reach for Democrats, OH even more than it is now. MI, PA and WI would be Lean R at the presidential level, although Democrats could still win Senate and gubernatorial seats. VA would likely become a pure tossup state.

Democrats are much less dependent on black voters in AZ and NV so a massive shift in the black vote could affect them at the margins, but not really in the long term.

Several states that are safely Democratic (IL, MD, NJ, NY) would still vote that way but with considerably reduced margins, and could give Democrats some heartburn at the Senate and especially gubernatorial level.

On the other hand, Republicans would run up the score even more in all the Safe R Southern states.

If Republicans do manage to get 25% of the black vote nationwide and nothing else changes, they would very clearly be the dominant party in the White House and Congress. 

[DS0816]

Going by the results of the 2020 United States presidential election … subtract –1.69 from the Democrats and add +1.69 for the Republicans.

U.S. Popular Vote margin would be Democratic  +1.07.

That may be enough for 23 states. Which is where winning Democrats usually win with their Tipping-Point State.

I tend to think that it would not be just 25 percent of Blacks for Republicans … but as well as higher percentages of votes, also nationwide, by people from other racial demographic groups.

[Frodo]

In this scenario, we would see a new Solid South emerging down to the state and local levels that could last for well over a hundred years, only it is a multiracial coalition of southern Republicans in place of white segregationist Democrats of yore who will dominate the region.   

[MT Treasurer]

Actually, Democrats are very much dependent on the black vote in Nevada given how close statewide races there are these days — under such a shift, the state would still be consistently close but basically become out of reach for them overnight ("Titanium Tilt/Lean R", but unironically). It’s also the type of place where the GOP would do even better with the black vote than they would nationally, so 25% nationally probably means as much as 30-35% in Nevada.

The GOP making such dramatic inroads with black voters would also imply that they won over at least enough Hispanic voters to solidify their grip on NV. There’s no way the GOP loses the state in a close national election.

[Mr. Smith]

Actually, Democrats are very much dependent on the black vote in Nevada given how close statewide races there are these days — under such a shift, the state would still be consistently close but basically become out of reach for them overnight ("Titanium Tilt/Lean R", but unironically). It’s also the type of place where the GOP would do even better with the black vote than they would nationally, so 25% nationally probably means as much as 30-35% in Nevada.

The GOP making such dramatic inroads with black voters would also imply that they won over at least enough Hispanic voters to solidify their grip on NV. There’s no way the GOP loses the state in a close national election.

Given how Obama '08 struggled with Hispanics initially, Biden struggles, Clinton excelled, Bernie '20 did very good in the primaries, and Bush '04 got over 40% in the general...all while the black vote went to the Establishment D each time by NK margins, sans Obama '08 [even that could be taken as Establishment]....this doesn't necessarily have to be the case.

[Skill and Chance]

Actually, Democrats are very much dependent on the black vote in Nevada given how close statewide races there are these days — under such a shift, the state would still be consistently close but basically become out of reach for them overnight ("Titanium Tilt/Lean R", but unironically). It’s also the type of place where the GOP would do even better with the black vote than they would nationally, so 25% nationally probably means as much as 30-35% in Nevada.

The GOP making such dramatic inroads with black voters would also imply that they won over at least enough Hispanic voters to solidify their grip on NV. There’s no way the GOP loses the state in a close national election.

This would obviously clinch a bunch of federal elections for R's in the short term.  What would be the most likely group for D's to improve with to counter it?

[WalterWhite]

Actually, Democrats are very much dependent on the black vote in Nevada given how close statewide races there are these days — under such a shift, the state would still be consistently close but basically become out of reach for them overnight ("Titanium Tilt/Lean R", but unironically). It’s also the type of place where the GOP would do even better with the black vote than they would nationally, so 25% nationally probably means as much as 30-35% in Nevada.

The GOP making such dramatic inroads with black voters would also imply that they won over at least enough Hispanic voters to solidify their grip on NV. There’s no way the GOP loses the state in a close national election.

This would obviously clinch a bunch of federal elections for R's in the short term.  What would be the most likely group for D's to improve with to counter it?

Southern Whites, probably

[Tekken_Guy]

Actually, Democrats are very much dependent on the black vote in Nevada given how close statewide races there are these days — under such a shift, the state would still be consistently close but basically become out of reach for them overnight ("Titanium Tilt/Lean R", but unironically). It’s also the type of place where the GOP would do even better with the black vote than they would nationally, so 25% nationally probably means as much as 30-35% in Nevada.

The GOP making such dramatic inroads with black voters would also imply that they won over at least enough Hispanic voters to solidify their grip on NV. There’s no way the GOP loses the state in a close national election.

Unless Dems are making drastic improvements with whites.

[BigZuck08]

According to the Cook Political Report's Demographic Swingometer, if Trump were to win 25% of the black vote in 2020 (no other variables changed), Trump would flip AZ, GA, WI, MI, PA and NE-2 and would win the popular vote by about 166,459 votes. This would also result in him getting re-elected. The total electoral vote margin would be 306 Trump-232 Biden

[Agonized-Statism]

The concessions they would have to make for that to happen at this time would cost them elsewhere. I'm probably bullish on GOP gains with black voters in the future because I think that by necessity for equilibrium on the electoral map they'll be reclassified as "traditional Americans" in contrast to the millions of comparatively less established and worse-off climate refugees (primarily Latin American but plenty from far-flung regions, maybe even Africa), but that's in the context of a more diverse America where the white vote doesn't mean as much.

[bagelman]

According to the Cook Political Report's Demographic Swingometer, if Trump were to win 25% of the black vote in 2020 (no other variables changed), Trump would flip AZ, GA, WI, MI, PA and NE-2 and would win the popular vote by about 166,459 votes. This would also result in him getting re-elected. The total electoral vote margin would be 306 Trump-232 Biden

My main takeaway from that tool is that, assuming it's a universal swing that doesn't exclude the state, MI is now more conservative that WI or PA.

[Person Man]

Let's go on to say a Democrat then goes on to win 42% of the White vote after that or hits 55% with the Upper Middle and Middle Class without further WWC erosion.