Will Daniel Cameron and Mark Robinson both win their races?

[Tekken_Guy]

Two black Republican gubernatorial candidates running in high profile races. Will both of them be successful, or will both of them fail? Or will we see a split result?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

At this point, Cameron loses and Robinson wins.

[Vice President Christian Man]

At this point, Cameron loses and Robinson wins.

Keep in mind that unlike Hobbs, Stein is a relatively strong candidate so he wouldn't have the same advantage that Lake had in Arizona. Considering Beshear is popular, I think that he wins by more but I don't think either of them are favored at this time.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

At this point, Cameron loses and Robinson wins.

Keep in mind that unlike Hobbs, Stein is a relatively strong candidate so he wouldn't have the same advantage that Lake had in Arizona. Considering Beshear is popular, I think that he wins by more but I don't think either of them are favored at this time.

Lake was despised by most of the establishment in Arizona and actively alienated moderate Republicans in a way only Trump has really done before.
Robinson has the whole NCGOP establishment backing him (which is why his primary will be a cakewalk). He also doesn't attack other Republicans and focuses on going after democrats, as well as not leading with election denialism like Lake.
Stein also isn't that strong of a candidate. He did worse than Mark Robinson did so objectively he has a worse electoral history. He's also not an incumbent and isn't that well known so he doesn't have Cooper's strengths. In fact he's not as moderate as Cooper either and doesn't have moderate vibes (he comes across as more of a neolib) so I've seen no evidence of him being a strong candidate.

[Vice President Christian Man]

At this point, Cameron loses and Robinson wins.

Keep in mind that unlike Hobbs, Stein is a relatively strong candidate so he wouldn't have the same advantage that Lake had in Arizona. Considering Beshear is popular, I think that he wins by more but I don't think either of them are favored at this time.

Lake was despised by most of the establishment in Arizona and actively alienated moderate Republicans in a way only Trump has really done before.
Robinson has the whole NCGOP establishment backing him (which is why his primary will be a cakewalk). He also doesn't attack other Republicans and focuses on going after democrats, as well as not leading with election denialism like Lake.
Stein also isn't that strong of a candidate. He did worse than Mark Robinson did so objectively he has a worse electoral history. He's also not an incumbent and isn't that well known so he doesn't have Cooper's strengths. In fact he's not as moderate as Cooper either and doesn't have moderate vibes (he comes across as more of a neolib) so I've seen no evidence of him being a strong candidate.

1. Most people didn't know about Robinson's ideology when he ran and he has close to 0 appeal to non-religious moderates which in a state as close as NC could make the difference between a win and defeat.
2. Stein managed to win even though other candidates on the ballot including Biden/Beasley lost.

[Dave Hedgehog]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say both win. Beshear may have good approval ratings but his state is just so red that I can just see the partisan lean sealing his fate here (Laura Kelly had similarly good approvals in a less-red state and still only just won reelection), and Robinson seems to consistently lead in polls against Stein even in spite of all his inflammatory statements. Think the D's have missed their chance to achieve parity or even surpass the R's in terms of governorships and won't get the chance again for quite some time to come.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cameron hasn't lead in a single poll and Robinson is only up 3

[Spectator]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say both win. Beshear may have good approval ratings but his state is just so red that I can just see the partisan lean sealing his fate here (Laura Kelly had similarly good approvals in a less-red state and still only just won reelection), and Robinson seems to consistently lead in polls against Stein even in spite of all his inflammatory statements. Think the D's have missed their chance to achieve parity or even surpass the R's in terms of governorships and won't get the chance again for quite some time to come.

Not as difficult as you’re making it out to be. All they have to do is retain Kentucky and Morth Carolina, flip NH and VT if Scott also retires, then flip VA in 2025.

[TDAS04]

Both lose by under 5%.

[BigZuck08]

I think that both will lose. In Kentucky, Democratic Governor Andy Beshear, despite being a Democrat in an overwhelmingly Republican state, is very popular in that state. Even according to Republican internal polls (internal polls tend to have a bias toward the side that's doing them) Beshear is the front-runner.

As for North Carolina, Mark Robinson seems to be the front runner right now, but most of North Carolina is not aware of his extremely controversial statements. Yes, he did win a Lieutenant Governor election in 2020, but Lieutenant Governor elections tend to be more localized, and they are given way less attention compared to Governor elections. Robinson will almost certainly be the Republican Party's nominee and I'm pretty sure Attorney General Josh Stein (who's a Democrat and will almost certainly be the Democratic Party's nominee) will try to make North Carolina aware of Robinson's statements through things like pamphlets and advertisements. So although Robinson is the front runner right now, we can expect Stein to be the front runner by mid, maybe early 2024.

Both races I ranked as "Lean D" on 270ToWin.

[Xing]

I’d say both are very slight underdogs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or both of them won. While Cameron is one of the better candidates Republicans could’ve picked, popular governors remain difficult to beat, even in states that don’t usually favor their party, and it’s harder to convince people who approve of their Governor to vote against them than it is in a Senate race. If Beshear’s popularity goes down before November, he’ll definitely be in trouble, but if it doesn’t, he’ll be tough to beat. I expect North Carolina to be pretty close either way, and it’ll be more dependent on the national environment.

[Del Tachi]

Cameron no, Robinson yes

[Progressive Pessimist]

Both probably lose, but I'm not entirely confident yet.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm rooting for both, but I consider Cameron to be an underdog.  I'm certainly rooting for Mark Robinson.  I'll say this:  If Cameron were running in NC he's be a sure winner.

[Zedonathin2020]

Both lose, but I think that Robinson will do slightly better than Cameron

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

There is a very slim chance of Robinson winning the general election, it is more likely he loses by >5. He is an atrocious candidate whose numbers will continue to plummet.