1
As the worst fears of Spaniards are realized,
the military is ready for Round 2 of the Civil War
November 1978
Juan Carlos's refusal to cooperate has raised the stakes,
and General Milans must decide how far is he willing to go
CONTEXT: Against the odds, King Juan Carlos had landed in Spain and gotten several military regions to fall behind him, successfully breaking the unity of the military. Although these events have drastically altered the original plans for the coup and made a clean resolution all but impossible, the golpistas still have several key elements behind them. Madrid and all the centers of power remain under occupation, a majority of the Armed Forces have crossed the Rubicon - so to speak - and the population's response has seen fear overpowering outrage, preventing mass demonstrations other than in Catalonia and the Basque Country.
Within this backdrop, General Milans arrives in Madrid to restore order. The General quickly dismisses Armada, the failure of his attempt at a soft coup - with the King reportedly telling him off in a profanity-laced rant - making him no longer useful. Milans, not beholden like many to a sense of loyalty towards the King, is ready to fight on. The alternative, he feels, is to lose the war against Communism forever. But the challenge on how to proceed is not easy. The King has sufficient support to mount a civil war, and the international condemnation - with Carter, Callaghan and Giscard all strongly condemning the coup - raises the prospect of a tough fight.
Milans must now decide.
The Options:
Go to war: Reasoning that his best defense is a quick offense, Milans could seek to quash the counter-coup with force, in the hopes of a swift end to any armed conflict. By making full use of his resources - including, if needed, an air strike to silence the monarch - Milans would undoubtedly up the ante, though he might just spare Spain from a major civil war if he's successful. With the King deposed, it would then be possible to establish the sort of firm government that would - in the mind of the Generals - save the nation.
Go defensive: Aware that, outrage or no outrage, the fear of a civil war runs deep among the people and the politicians, Milans could seek to stall and play for time, cementing his hold over the Armed Forces and the Military Regions. In theory, such a move could allow him to negotiate from a position of strength, perhaps even avoiding a civil war should a suitable compromise be found. However, it could just as well give Juan Carlos time to consolidate, and, should there be no political solution or reconciliation with the King, ensure a long and bitter civil war.
Two days.
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1.) Original Image: Coup d'état, Peru 1968, Wikimedia Commons.
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