Crystal Ball initial 2024 projections

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/electoral-college-ratings-expect-another-highly-competitive-election/

Bottom line: D's have 260 EV in safe, likely or leaning, while R's have 235.  Tossups are AZ, GA, NV, and WI.  If all the safe/likely/leaning hold true, then D's need any one of AZ, GA, or WI to win.

Lean D: MI, NE-2, NH, PA
Lean R: ME-2, NC

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the map:

https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1674379819277066241

[wbrocks67]

Everything seems fair except for NV. Would still start it as Lean D. Democrats won last year against all the odds, so it's hard to imagine Trump winning federally now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Read that article and you'll see that they acknowledge that the ratings for both PA and NV were somewhat daring choices, but explain why they chose them.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Yep this all seems very reasonable. I think AZ and WI will be the closest states when all's said and done, but PA will (as usual) be the keystone.

[Sir Mohamed]

Seems reasonable, though it put PA and NC both as tossups. NM and IA are Safe imho.

[Aurelius2]

GA is lean D at this point. Hot take: NV is lean R.

[Unelectable Bystander]

The reasoning on Pennsylvania is disappointing. It reads like Atlas math. “Growing area trends D, shrinking area trends R, state trends D.” The same is true of Ohio, Iowa, or Arkansas frankly. The only state in the whole country with growing areas trending R is probably Florida. With that being said, I’m fine with Pennsylvania leaning D because it feels like R’s need a special combination of Trump-level rural turnout and sufficient suburban performance to ever carry the state.

North Carolina leaning R is fine because it has continued to show it won’t vote D unless the environment is clearly D-leaning. The 2022 senate race is a counter-example, but even that shows that D’s need to win most of the persuadable voters and have strong turnout to have a chance. Most generic statewide races lean R by a few points. There’s also the fact that R’s are gaining in voter registration (even if many of these are ancestral D’s).

I agree with Nevada as a toss-up but 2024 will tell if the registered D voters that sat out 2022 simply didn’t want to vote in the midterms or if they are really dissatisfied with Biden.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I think the map is fair. You can argue about PA being Lean D but it still a pretty left leaning state compared to the other toss-ups.

Nevada been talked about. Rather telling that Republicans do feel they have a chance there because its not that educated of a state. Especially if they do better with Hispanics and Trump is probably to the left of most Dems when it comes to gambling.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’d nudge Georgia and Nevada towards democrats. I might nudge ME-02 towards republicans

[Ferguson97]

NV and PA should be swapped, imo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not time to vote yet it's next Nov it's a 303 map but Obama won in 2008 WI by 10 and Trump is down 10 in WI that's a sign of a blue wave guess how many pts Baldwin won by without Johnson on the ballot in 2018 10 pts

Blue avatars think that it's to e to vote already and it's not but even we  voted we win the WH and H the S is wave insurance because it's a 303 map

[Gracile]

My biggest quibble is that I think NH should be in the Likely D category or not be in the same category as MI and PA. I also think PA (and to a lesser extent MI) at Lean D is jumping the gun a bit, though I can see the case if the election as a whole is rated as modestly favoring Democrats.

[Vosem]

Would push NH to Likely D and PA to Tossup. Otherwise fine.

[ProudModerate2]

I have been interested in their maps for some time now.
I have never noticed them in the past, to actually indicate and rate ME-1 (not to be confused with ME-2).
Does the article say why they are now doing this? Do they expect this district to possibly be competitive for this election? (In my opinion, highly unlikely).
Odd.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I have been interested in their maps for some time now.
I have never noticed them in the past, to actually indicate and rate ME-1 (not to be confused with ME-2).
Does the article say why they are now doing this? Do they expect this district to possibly be competitive for this election? (In my opinion, highly unlikely).
Odd.

I assumed it's because both Maine districts have different ratings than the state at large; ME-1 is Safe D and ME-2 is Lean R, while ME-AL is Likely D.  In the case of Nebraska, they broke out only NE-2 because the other two districts have the same rating as the state at large (all Safe R).

[pantsaregood]

I think NC and ME-2 sharing the same rating is pretty nonsensical. ME-2 is much more likely to vote R than NC.

[ProudModerate2]

I have been interested in their maps for some time now.
I have never noticed them in the past, to actually indicate and rate ME-1 (not to be confused with ME-2).
Does the article say why they are now doing this? Do they expect this district to possibly be competitive for this election? (In my opinion, highly unlikely).
Odd.

I assumed it's because both Maine districts have different ratings than the state at large; ME-1 is Safe D and ME-2 is Lean R, while ME-AL is Likely D.  In the case of Nebraska, they broke out only NE-2 because the other two districts have the same rating as the state at large (all Safe R).

Makes sense.
I bet you are correct.

[Nyvin]

NH should be Likely D, not Lean.   It's definitely not going back to 2016 days anytime soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Everything here seems ok, but I would bump several states a rating down only cause we're so far out. Imo PA should be tossup, TX should be lean R, KS and maybe SC should be likely R, ect.

I feel like too often these ratings feel like what they predict if the election were held today, and don't account for the fact over a year out, variability is huge.

[ProgressiveModerate]

NH should be Likely D, not Lean.   It's definitely not going back to 2016 days anytime soon.

Curious why they did this, given they did MN as likely D. Biden already did well in 2020, and Democrats had a really solid midterm in NH in 2022. All signs indicate Trump has lost a bit of ground there if anything.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Eday is today it's a 303 map but it's not today it's a yr from now

Ignore Approvals they aren't a 303 map they are just polling how voters feel about inflation