States where both parties are capable of winning a trifecta.
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  States where both parties are capable of winning a trifecta.
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Author Topic: States where both parties are capable of winning a trifecta.  (Read 383 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« on: July 03, 2023, 04:33:51 PM »

How many are there? What's the list?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2023, 07:11:51 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2023, 09:40:12 PM by Secretary of State Liberal Hack »

1. New Hampshire: pretty easy both ways. State Senate is a gerrymander but the median seat is 50-50
2. Michigan: fair map, both houses tipping point seats are Dem favoured but in a republican wave they could flip
3. Pennsylvania: Same as above both houses of the legislature are balanced
4.Virginia: Democrats favoured in both maps but not too an unshakeable degree.
Edit:
5. Maine: Possible in a republican wave but still unlikley both flip
6. Minnesota: ditto
7. Arizona, probably the most likley to flip both houses are only a 1 seat majority


I'm pretty sure that's it, the rest of the swing states have a part of the state legislature that's too gerrymandered to flip bearing a huge wave.
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David Hume
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« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2023, 07:38:12 PM »

1. New Hampshire: pretty easy both ways. State Senate is a gerrymander but the median seat is 50-50
2. Michigan: fair map, both houses tipping point seats are Dem favoured but in a republican wave they could flip
3. Pennsylvania: Same as above both houses of the legislature are balanced
4.Virginia: Democrats favoured in both maps but not too an unshakeable degree.

I'm pretty sure that's it, the rest of the swing states have a part of the state legislature that's too gerrymanderd to flip bearing a huge wave.
MN: fair map drawn by SC. Both houses are lean D but can be flipped in a good year like 2014 and 2016.
ME: a little harder to flip, but still doable in 2010ish environment.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2023, 07:54:48 PM »

Surprised no one has mentioned AZ, though unless something changes every cycle the GOP's path gets narrower.

AZ is normally a tossup up state, and the commission drawn state legislative map is relatively fair with the median seat voting roughly in line with the state.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #4 on: July 04, 2023, 01:08:18 AM »

From west to east:
Arizona
Minnesota
Michigan
Virginia
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Maine

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