Japan 2024: Tokyo Governor election with possible snap election

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

In Tokyo, what initially seemed like a cakewalk at the start of the year is shaping up to be a real race.

Governess Koike Yuriko is seeking a third-term in the post - those challenging her include former DP leader Renho, Akitakata Mayor Ishimaru Shinji, and now far-right former Chief of Staff of the Japanese Air Self-Defence Force Tamogami Toshio. With the LDP endorsing her for the first time, the opposition smells blood.

“Governess”? Is she teaching them to read?

[Duke of York]

Final results
CDP/DPP 47.4%
LDP           42.4%
JCP           7.0%
IND            1.6%
IND             1.0%
IND             0.6%

Another blow for Kishida. While not immediately fatal, it was the slow drip drip of election losses that lead to Suga's ouster.

He's almost certainly gone in September when the LDP meet to elect a new leader, especially when there are potential candidates testing the waters.

I've said before just how much I admire his dogged determination to cling to the office, but he's running out of options. He could try and gamble on a snap election, but really, he should've called one months ago when he was riding high and the CDP was flailing around. Now Izumi is presenting himself as a credible Prime Minister and the LDP hasn't had good news in ages.

I doubt LDP is losing a general election.

[Dr. Cynic]

Final results
CDP/DPP 47.4%
LDP           42.4%
JCP           7.0%
IND            1.6%
IND             1.0%
IND             0.6%

Another blow for Kishida. While not immediately fatal, it was the slow drip drip of election losses that lead to Suga's ouster.

He's almost certainly gone in September when the LDP meet to elect a new leader, especially when there are potential candidates testing the waters.

I've said before just how much I admire his dogged determination to cling to the office, but he's running out of options. He could try and gamble on a snap election, but really, he should've called one months ago when he was riding high and the CDP was flailing around. Now Izumi is presenting himself as a credible Prime Minister and the LDP hasn't had good news in ages.

I doubt LDP is losing a general election.

The LDP didn't lose the 1993 election either, but they did lose 52 seats and lost power (albeit briefly) because the opposition formed an unwieldly coalition. The current projection is for them to lose around 60 seats, which would present a similar opportunity. It would remain to be seen if the opposition parties could make hay while the sun shines.