America's Mayor, America's President

[TheTide]

On the night of the South Carolina Republican Primary in January 2008, Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign - and perhaps his entire political career, look doomed. Having led in the polls throughout much of 2007, his standing floundered towards the end of the year, despite an unlikely endorsement from the televangelist Pat Robertson. For quite some time, he had boasted of a 'Florida Strategy' - Florida being set to vote at the end of January. His polling there remained strong - at least relative to other early states - but since Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states had begun voting, both John McCain and Mitt Romney had overtaken him, or were certainly threatening to.

Giuliani, sitting with his aides, was observing the South Carolina results. He was at around 2%. Whilst he hadn't seriously contesting the state, he dreaded the embarrassment of not even coming ahead of Ron Paul. John McCain was looking set to win, which would further cement his momentum as the moderate 'establishment' candidate.

Suddenly, a breaking news report came up on the television.

This is CNN Breaking News...We have reports that Senator John McCain, who appears to be the winner of the South Carolina primary, has been taken ill at his campaign headquarters in South Carolina. We can go to our reporter there right now, whom I believe has more information...

Yes, it's our understanding here, this is according to a conversation I have just had with a senior member of the McCain campaign, that Senator McCain has suffered what appears to be a stroke. He has been rushed to a nearby hospital.

[TheTide]

Rick Davis was a veteran of U.S. political campaigns at this point. At at a state level his experience began more than thirty years ago, before he moved onto a national level as a leading member of the College RNC during Ronald Reagan's successful 1980 presidential campaign.

He had been haunted by South Carolina for the past eight years. In 2000, as manager of Senator John McCain's first presidential campaign, it looked, for a brief and fleeting moment, that he might topple George W. Bush - the nepotistic, 'inevitable' nominee.

Then came the push polling.

Fast forward to January 2008. The nightmares had seemingly been crushed when networks projected that John McCain had won the South Carolina primary. This, alas, was also brief and fleeting. He had turned to his right to see Cindy McCain - in a state of shock trying to get her words out. Something was wrong with the Senator - her husband.

48 hours later, and here he was. Giving an address to the media.

First and foremost, I want to tell you that Senator McCain is alive. It would be taking it too far to say that he is well, but doctors are confident that - in time - he can overcome this major health setback. The Senator is alert and in a reasonably good mindset.

After conversations involving the Senator, his family, myself and other members of this campaign, we have concluded that it is not feasible that this campaign can continue. Senator McCain wishes me to say - on his behalf - how sorry he is to his supporters - and he has had many in these early states. He wishes the remaining candidates well, and looks forward to supporting the eventual Republican nominee. Whilst he won't be the nominee this year, Senator McCain wishes me to say that he will always be loyal to his party and - above all - to his country.

[TheTide]

Charlie Crist was a rising star in the Republican Party. He had won the Governorship of Florida - and a third consecutive term for the GOP (something which was now being hoped for at the presidential level) - by over 7% in 2006. To anyone with even the most vague interest in politics, it was known that 2006 was hardly a good year for the Republican Party.

The major Republican presidential candidates had kept a note of him for months, given the importance of Florida's primary. For most of the campaign, it had been widely assumed that Crist would back Giuliani - the candidate who seemingly had a foothold on the state, and was close to Crist in terms of his politics. However, as Giuliani's campaign began to flag - particularly in January - the speculation that he might instead endorse McCain or Romney began to increase.

Of the two, McCain was seen as the most likely recipient of a Crist endorsement. This, alas, had been ruled out by the unfortunate events on the night of the South Carolina primary.

In the days immediately following McCain's withdrawal - on January 21, 2008 - the campaign was quiet - at least on the Republican side. Soon, however, the media grew tired of this show of respect and amped up the campaign, calling out a controversial slur that a member of the Romney campaign had made about Giuliani and making it a major issue - even though it probably wouldn't have been otherwise.

Crist was still undecided. He knew his political clout would be dented by making the 'wrong' endorsement - that is, endorsing a candidate who didn't go onto win the Florida primary. Giuliani was back in contention - for sure - but he had proven himself a poor campaigner and a poor strategist. Romney had run a good campaign, but he didn't like the more right-wing tone that he (as a Massachusetts liberal) had strangely adopted.

Polls obviously had an impact on Crist's decision. Giuliani - whose polling numbers in Florida had declined to around 20%, were now back up to 30% or more as a result of man McCain supporters switching to him. This created a sense of momentum.

After some further dithering, Crist made up his mind.

Giuliani would be smiling.

[TheTide]

Mitt Romney had had a strange political career. He effectively ran to the left of Ted Kennedy - at least on social issues - during his 1994 run for the Senate on in Massachusetts. By his 2002 gubernatorial run, he was more or less a standard moderate Republican in the mould of Senators Collins and Snowe of Maine.

For this cycle, he was effectively the Reaganite candidate. This was partly due to the other candidates not being able to capture that mantle - McCain was too distrusted by conservatives due to his maverick status, Giuliani was an unapologetic social liberal and Huckabee was too keen on economic interventionism (with a Biblical tinge to it). Fred Thompson had briefly looked as if he was the Reagan of this cycle, but Reagan was someone who actually bothered to campaign, so that idea went out pretty quickly.

After McCain's withdrawal, Romney was instantly seen by many as the frontrunner, due to already having proven himself capable of winning impressive levels of support in various kinds of states. There was still a nagging feeling, however, that the GOP wouldn't really choose an ex-liberal Mormon as their nominee, even if he did look and sound the part.

[TheTide]

Normality - or brutality - had been resumed in the last few days of the Florida primary campaign. The set piece was a debate in which both Romney and Giuliani tore chunks out of each other. Giuliani attacked Romney's flip-flopping, whilst Romney attacked Giuliani's continued social liberalism and his 'New York values'. It was all a bit predictable, and neither was particularly impressive as a debater. Romney had a mild stammer and Giuliani had quite a prominent lisp. Huckabee probably came across the best, but no one really cared about him by now.

With the polls showing a virtual dead heat, the campaigns settled in at their respective HQs in Florida. Early returns showed a Romney lead, but Giuliani's impressive showings in metro areas and places with large numbers of retirees from New York saw him eek out a victory. The final overall results were:

Rudy Giuliani - 34.9%
Mitt Romney - 33.1%
Mike Huckabee - 16.3%
Ron Paul - 4.3%
Others - 11.6%

McCain - still being on the ballot - had won around 8% of the vote, but of course that didn't count for much now.

As in Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney had faltered in a contest that he had been expected to win. Giuliani was now a major contender again, despite a less than 2% victory in a state that he had claimed for months was 'Rudy Country'.

Polls for Super Tuesday states showed that it was likely to be a competitive tussle, much as the Democratic side of Super Tuesday was likely to be. Crucially, Giuliani had regained his dominance in New York and New Jersey - states which were the very bedrock of his support base and which had been showing signs of wobbling around the time of the South Carolina primary. With Huckabee having an advantage in the Southern states and Romney being strong in the smaller Western states, the battlegrounds would likely be Minnesota, Illinois and California.
 

[TheTide]

The Giuliani campaign team had terrible eating habits. That's what the average observer would presume by looking at the piles of empty cartons, packets and plates around them. It was now the morning after, and one member of the team announced that he was going to read through the results one more time, before everyone could go and get some well-earned rest.

Alabama - Huckabee - 44.1%, Romney - 32.2%, Giuliani - 19.6%
Alaska - Romney - 52.4%, Giuliani - 21.1%, Huckabee - 15.3%
Arizona - Romney - 36.6%, Giuliani - 36.2%, Huckabee - 18.9%
Arkansas - Huckabee - 52.3%, Romney - 31.4%, Giuliani - 13.7%
California - Giuliani - 43.2%, Romney - 41.6%, Huckabee - 11.2%
Colorado - Romney - 56.2%, Giuliani - 22.4%, Huckabee - 14.8%
Connecticut - Giuliani - 47.8%, Romney - 41.2%, Huckabee - 7.3%
Delaware - Giuliani - 53.2%, Romney - 34.7%, Huckabee - 8.3%
Georgia - Huckabee - 34.4%, Romney - 33.6%, Giuliani - 28.2%
Illinois - Giuliani - 49.3%, Romney - 40.0%, Huckabee - 6.7%
Massachusetts - Romney - 49.1%, Giuliani - 44.7%, Huckabee - 2.7%
Minnesota - Romney - 44.8%, Giuliani - 31.4%, Huckabee - 13.2%
Missouri - Giuliani - 33.7%, Romney - 33.1%, Huckabee - 28.9%
Montana - Romney - 45.7%, Paul - 21.3%, Giuliani - 20.2%, Huckabee - 12.0%
New Jersey - Giuliani - 59.4%, Romney - 28.6%, Huckabee - 9.3%
New York - Giuliani - 53.5%, Romney - 31.1%, Huckabee - 9.1%
North Dakota - Romney - 48.1%, Huckabee - 21.0%, Giuliani - 16.8%
Oklahoma - Romney - 39.2%, Giuliani - 28.6%, Huckabee - 26.7%
Tennessee - Huckabee - 37.2%, Romney - 28.4%, Giuliani - 25.9%
Utah - Romney - 90.8%, Giuliani - 2.2%, Huckabee - 1.3%
West Virginia (state convention) - Huckabee - 53.4%, Romney - 45.9%, Giuliani - 0.7%

To round it off, a rough delegate estimate was also announced.

Giuliani - 474
Huckabee - 206
Romney - 176

The delegate count masked how competitive it had been. Giuliani's lead was thanks to his 1.6% victory in California. Romney had done well in caucuses which didn't award delegates directly, and much of the South and the border states voting had meant that Huckabee was now in second place, at least technically.

Regardless, Giuliani would now be referred to as 'Mr Frontrunner'.