Blanco out; Breaux in!

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think the Dems are getting a little too excited, this is Lousiana and it has been a long time since John Breaux was elected. 

1998 does not qaulify as "a long time".

Breaux was an eight-term Congressman and a three-term Senator, and he won reelection each time by healthy margins. Jindal? He is a 1 1/2 - term, 3-year Congressman lol. Compare that to Breaux's 32 years. Breaux was elected statewide three times while Jindal has never been elected statewide.

Nine years is an eternity in politics, especially while the Democratic bastion was destroyed in that time period

Remember, when he was senator they still hadn't elected a Republican senator in 120+ years. 

And they've still only elected one - Vitter - and only b/c the incumbent retired. Who was that incumbent? Oh yeh - John Breaux. Seems like you're the one who shouldn't be getting too excited.
[/quote]

How many chances have they had since New Orleans was destroyed or since Vitter? 0

Things are changing fast in this state and with the devestation of the Dems stronghold, Dems are counting their blessings a little too quickly

Breaux does not need overwhleming margins in New Orleans to put him over 50% like Blanco or Landrieu. His roots in the state are deep, and his appeal to indies and republicans is much stronger than Blanco's. Jindal could probably even lose his own district vs. Breaux.
[/quote]

Jindal will not lose a district that just handed 80%+ of the vote

[Deano963]

I think the Dems are getting a little too excited, this is Lousiana and it has been a long time since John Breaux was elected. 

1998 does not qaulify as "a long time".

Breaux was an eight-term Congressman and a three-term Senator, and he won reelection each time by healthy margins. Jindal? He is a 1 1/2 - term, 3-year Congressman lol. Compare that to Breaux's 32 years. Breaux was elected statewide three times while Jindal has never been elected statewide.

Nine years is an eternity in politics, especially while the Democratic bastion was destroyed in that time period

Nine years means nothing when it is LA and John Breaux who we are talking about.

You're still worng. John Breuax does not overwhelming margins in New Orleans to win. The fact that the Democratic "bastion" is decreased means nothing when you are talking about a man who has won statewide with over 70% of the vote like Breaux has vs. a man who has only represented 1/6th of the state.

Remember, when he was senator they still hadn't elected a Republican senator in 120+ years. 

And they've still only elected one - Vitter - and only b/c the incumbent retired. Who was that incumbent? Oh yeh - John Breaux. Seems like you're the one who shouldn't be getting too excited.

How many chances have they had since New Orleans was destroyed or since Vitter? 0

That dosen't matter. It might matter if the Dem candidate was a Blanco or a Landrieu. But, again, it's not one of those. It's John Breaux. He represented LA for 32 years in Congress, while Jindal has for 3. The race won't be very close.

Things are changing fast in this state and with the devestation of the Dems stronghold, Dems are counting their blessings a little too quickly

Breaux does not need overwhleming margins in New Orleans to put him over 50% like Blanco or Landrieu. His roots in the state are deep, and his appeal to indies and republicans is much stronger than Blanco's. Jindal could probably even lose his own district vs. Breaux.

Jindal will not lose a district that just handed 80%+ of the vote

Maybe not, but he wil lose the state overall.

[© tweed]

Breaux will do well among conservative rural white racists.  That, plus NOLA and whatever blacks are left, should form a coalition big enough to hand Breaux victory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nine years is an eternity in politics,

Yes and no. In this case, no.

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You should note here that both Nagin and Jefferson were re-elected. Really quite significant in many ways. Black New Orleans ain't dead yet.

Now, an area that was destroyed was St Bernard parish... which voted quite heavily for Jindal in 2003.

Regardless, Breaux's old base (Acadiana) wasn't seriously affected by Katrina, and I don't think that Jindal's problems in Northern Louisiana have gone away either.

[sethm0]

 Jindal is pretty much locked into running for Gov. at this point. I'm not sure he'll be able to rebound and run against Landrieu a year after his second straight statewide loss either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Breaux's last run:



I think he can do just fine even if New Orleans was removed from the state altogether.

[Deano963]

Breaux's last run:



I think he can do just fine even if New Orleans was removed from the state altogether.

Wow, it looks like he won over 70% of the vote in quite a few parishes in northern and central LA. Impressive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And there's a reason Jindal didn't do so well: in many of those parishes last time:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

David Duke maps:









Compare to Bobby Jindal map: