Morning Consult: Biden + 1 vs. Trump, +4 vs. DeSantis

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1651054482187321344

[TodayJunior]

The undecideds are going to go for Biden hard like 5/1. 44-45% is a reasonable ceiling for Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis fails

[Sir Mohamed]

The undecideds are going to go for Biden hard like 5/1. 44-45% is a reasonable ceiling for Trump

Yup, Trump needs 3rd party candidates to draw at least 4-5% of the vote to win the EC. As of today, I believe this is the biggest risk for Biden.

Trump is definitely not going to crack 47%, which he failed twice before.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gary Johnson pulling votes from Hillary is totally different than any 3 rd party candidates, Gary Johnson elected Trump we know but Gary Johnson built a moderate following that was established for yrs during Obama administration if No Party's Label tried that it would fault the PVI like Steve Konraki said would be 81/74/3 like Jorgensin and not only that we have every swing state D inc Senators.
Bulk of 65M in Poverty are Ds and we know Pandemic was another Great Recession where the rich got richer 300 M for athletes and Trump

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Each time I see a poll with Trump outperforming DeSantis, I reconsider whether my "plan" would actually help Biden.

But I can still see DeSantis have good night if we're in a recession, whereas I can't really see Trump winning even with a recession. Plus, even if Trump did win, he'd destroy his party over the next four years and the Democrats would likely sweep 2028. DeSantis is likely favored for reelection otherwise.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Each time I see a poll with Trump outperforming DeSantis, I reconsider whether my "plan" would actually help Biden.

But I can still see DeSantis have good night if we're in a recession, whereas I can't really see Trump winning even with a recession. Plus, even if Trump did win, he'd destroy his party over the next four years and the Democrats would likely sweep 2028. DeSantis is likely favored for reelection otherwise.

I think at this point DeSantis is DOA in 2024 because of his six week ban. You can't look at the midterm results in this country and still not think that position is absolutely toxic to voters, especially more secular WWC

[Spectator]

Each time I see a poll with Trump outperforming DeSantis, I reconsider whether my "plan" would actually help Biden.

But I can still see DeSantis have good night if we're in a recession, whereas I can't really see Trump winning even with a recession. Plus, even if Trump did win, he'd destroy his party over the next four years and the Democrats would likely sweep 2028. DeSantis is likely favored for reelection otherwise.

I think at this point DeSantis is DOA in 2024 because of his six week ban. You can't look at the midterm results in this country and still not think that position is absolutely toxic to voters, especially more secular WWC

Not sure it matters a whole lot compared to what the pundit class thinks. Brian Kemp and Mike DeWine won in landslides despite signing restrictions.

[TheTide]

The undecideds are going to go for Biden hard like 5/1. 44-45% is a reasonable ceiling for Trump

Plenty of undecideds went for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Subsequent events may have made it less likely for that to occur again, but I wouldn't be so complacent.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Each time I see a poll with Trump outperforming DeSantis, I reconsider whether my "plan" would actually help Biden.

But I can still see DeSantis have good night if we're in a recession, whereas I can't really see Trump winning even with a recession. Plus, even if Trump did win, he'd destroy his party over the next four years and the Democrats would likely sweep 2028. DeSantis is likely favored for reelection otherwise.

I think at this point DeSantis is DOA in 2024 because of his six week ban. You can't look at the midterm results in this country and still not think that position is absolutely toxic to voters, especially more secular WWC

Not sure it matters a whole lot compared to what the pundit class thinks. Brian Kemp and Mike DeWine won in landslides despite signing restrictions.

I interpreted those elections as GA-GOV being more about election denialism and Abrams having ceded the goodwill she had, and OH-GOV happened because, in addition to being a red state, Mike DeWine is a state institution (somehow, even though he was blown out in 2006). Abortion may hurt DeSantis more than Trump, but both nominated/would nominate SCOTUS justices like the ones that overturned Roe.

[TodayJunior]

The undecideds are going to go for Biden hard like 5/1. 44-45% is a reasonable ceiling for Trump

Plenty of undecideds went for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Subsequent events may have made it less likely for that to occur again, but I wouldn't be so complacent.

Not complacency. It’s about motivation, and also demoralizing the gop base. Whatever it takes.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not sure it matters a whole lot compared to what the pundit class thinks. Brian Kemp and Mike DeWine won in landslides despite signing restrictions.

Neither of those states are MI/WI/PA especially MI and PA where the GOP got routed by running anti-abortion candidates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Each time I see a poll with Trump outperforming DeSantis, I reconsider whether my "plan" would actually help Biden.

But I can still see DeSantis have good night if we're in a recession, whereas I can't really see Trump winning even with a recession. Plus, even if Trump did win, he'd destroy his party over the next four years and the Democrats would likely sweep 2028. DeSantis is likely favored for reelection otherwise.

Trump is gonna get indictment again in GA and NY Prosecutor has dropped out the news that's why Trump appears to be doing better

[Skill and Chance]

The undecideds are going to go for Biden hard like 5/1. 44-45% is a reasonable ceiling for Trump

Plenty of undecideds went for Trump in 2016 and 2020. Subsequent events may have made it less likely for that to occur again, but I wouldn't be so complacent.

Yes, I don't think this is a reasonable assumption at all.  Undecideds breaking late in favor of the incumbent party is quite rare.