Cygnal (R): Biden +1, tie

[wbrocks67]

Biden (D) 46%
Trump (R) 45%

Biden (D) 45%
DeSantis (R) 45%

https://www.cygn.al/national-survey-momentum-on-gops-side-as-most-americans-side-with-them-on-the-culture-war/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs lose even in this one they have no agenda but to cut taxes for rich that's not a political party

[Skill and Chance]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

Because Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet? Don't you recall Mastriano for instance, being neck and neck with Shapiro and then collapsing later?

[wbrocks67]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

Because Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet? Don't you recall Mastriano for instance, being neck and neck with Shapiro and then collapsing later?

This, and also quite frankly, a lot of these polls are still a mess and haven't learned lessons since last year.

This has Trump with nearly 20% of the black vote and winning Independents by 5. If Democrats were able to win Indies by 2% last year, Trump is not winning them by 5.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

Because Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet? Don't you recall Mastriano for instance, being neck and neck with Shapiro and then collapsing later?

This, and also quite frankly, a lot of these polls are still a mess and haven't learned lessons since last year.

This has Trump with nearly 20% of the black vote and winning Independents by 5. If Democrats were able to win Indies by 2% last year, Trump is not winning them by 5.

Honestly, the former would not surprise me and wouldn't necessarily mean Biden is losing. I expect whites(especially less religious ones) to get bluer in 2024 and minorities(particularly asians) to get redder

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

Because Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet? Don't you recall Mastriano for instance, being neck and neck with Shapiro and then collapsing later?

This, and also quite frankly, a lot of these polls are still a mess and haven't learned lessons since last year.

This has Trump with nearly 20% of the black vote and winning Independents by 5. If Democrats were able to win Indies by 2% last year, Trump is not winning them by 5.

Honestly, the former would not surprise me and wouldn't necessarily mean Biden is losing. I expect whites(especially less religious ones) to get bluer in 2024 and minorities(particularly asians) to get redder

Lol there is no way in the world Minorities go R with Rs trying to cut Student loan Forgiveness and Romney won 61 percentage of white and won 9 percentage of blk and 20 percentage of Latinos

Gerrymandering favors whites they exclude blks I'm AL and LA we supposed to have 2 Ds we only have 1

Whom elected Trump Senior females and men not blk vote  and whom voted for Gary Johnson that took away the Hillary vote Senior women they are dying out now but more blk females have died out likey mom due to Diabetes among blk females

[DaleCooper]

The narrative the right is trying to push that Americans have sided with them on the culture war is very fascinating. They've definitely lost public opinion on the defining culture war issue of this decade: abortion. They have some advantages when it comes to extremist gender and racial identity politics, but I think most neutral observers can agree that those issues have faded quite a bit since Dobbs, plus the right goes so far and gets so authoritarian on those (banning books, invading family's privacy beyond any reasonable medical restrictions regarding gender transition, etc.) that they certainly aren't an easy sell to swing voters, even if they may poll more positively on paper.

I have seen absolutely no evidence in electoral results or on the ground that Republicans are winning the culture war. If anything, it's what has held them back over the last several years.

[xavier110]

The narrative the right is trying to push that Americans have sided with them on the culture war is very fascinating. They've definitely lost public opinion on the defining culture war issue of this decade: abortion. They have some advantages when it comes to extremist gender and racial identity politics, but I think most neutral observers can agree that those issues have faded quite a bit since Dobbs, plus the right goes so far and gets so authoritarian on those (banning books, invading family's privacy beyond any reasonable medical restrictions regarding gender transition, etc.) that they certainly aren't an easy sell to swing voters, even if they may poll more positively on paper.

I have seen absolutely no evidence in electoral results or on the ground that Republicans are winning the culture war. If anything, it's what has held them back over the last several years.

Yup. Part of the problem is, especially after 2016, Republicans have convinced themselves that they haven’t lost anything. In some circles, they act as if Trump has a 89% favorability rating. This has made them even more untethered from reality.

Talk to Democrats and they’ll laugh in your face if you ask them if people love Joe Biden…

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The narrative the right is trying to push that Americans have sided with them on the culture war is very fascinating. They've definitely lost public opinion on the defining culture war issue of this decade: abortion. They have some advantages when it comes to extremist gender and racial identity politics, but I think most neutral observers can agree that those issues have faded quite a bit since Dobbs, plus the right goes so far and gets so authoritarian on those (banning books, invading family's privacy beyond any reasonable medical restrictions regarding gender transition, etc.) that they certainly aren't an easy sell to swing voters, even if they may poll more positively on paper.

I have seen absolutely no evidence in electoral results or on the ground that Republicans are winning the culture war. If anything, it's what has held them back over the last several years.

Yup. Part of the problem is, especially after 2016, Republicans have convinced themselves that they haven’t lost anything. In some circles, they act as if Trump has a 89% favorability rating. This has made them even more untethered from reality.

Talk to Democrats and they’ll laugh in your face if you ask them if people love Joe Biden…

2016 was a totally different Environment it was Pre COVID in this COVID Environment it was another Great Recession all politicians are crooks the R party has ties to Russia with Russian Collusion since Jay Edgar Hoover and Nixon and now Trump since sixties that's the difference

[Vosem]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

Because Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet? Don't you recall Mastriano for instance, being neck and neck with Shapiro and then collapsing later?

I do not recall this; Mastriano never averaged better than 4 points or so behind Shapiro, and he did that when his name recognition was very poor; he was basically just running as 'Generic R'.

This is stronger and also more meaningful, because actually everybody already knows who Donald Trump is. There are essentially zero likely 2024 voters who do not already have a well-developed opinion of Joe Biden's predecessor.

[TheTide]

Rs lose even in this one

Biden +1 against Trump is highly unlikely to be an R loss in the EC.  Take all polling with a grain of salt, but how many statistical ties do there need to be before people stop treating this as Safe Biden?

Because Biden hasn't even started campaigning yet? Don't you recall Mastriano for instance, being neck and neck with Shapiro and then collapsing later?

This, and also quite frankly, a lot of these polls are still a mess and haven't learned lessons since last year.

This has Trump with nearly 20% of the black vote and winning Independents by 5. If Democrats were able to win Indies by 2% last year, Trump is not winning them by 5.

This is a poll of the general electorate, not specifically of black voters and/or independents. I'm pretty sure there are plenty of accurate polls (not that this is necessarily such a poll) that have questionable crosstabs.