Impact of a Bush 92 primary performance for Biden

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

If Marianne gets around 8-9% in the primary and RFK gets around 18-22%, as polls currently indicate, this would mean Biden does around as well as Bush did in 1992 against Pat Buchanan.
If this did end up happening, what would this indicate for the general election?

[Stranger in a strange land]

RFK Jr isn’t going to get anywhere close to 20%: this is just low-info voters going for the name “Kennedy”. These ppl largely don’t vote in primaries

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

If Marianne gets around 8-9% in the primary and RFK gets around 18-22%

If it starts raining carrots from the sky and all birds turn into dinosaurs, how will that impact Biden's re-election chances?

[Redban]

RFK Jr isn’t going to get anywhere close to 20%: this is just low-info voters going for the name “Kennedy”. These ppl largely don’t vote in primaries

The Fox News poll says that RFK's support is coming from Generation Xers, a group with whom Biden is polling around 50%-ish. RFK's support isn't coming from Boomers who are nostalgic about the Kennedy name.

As for thread - if RFK becomes like Pat Buchanan, then Biden becomes vulnerable and embarassed, looking weak for the general. I indeed will laugh hard if Biden has to go out and actually compete against RFK.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Won't happen

[Podgy the Bear]

Doesn't indicate anything for the general.

[President Johnson]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

Agreed. Gives me vibes from ca. 2018 when it was discussed whether Michael Avenatti would be a serious candidate or best suited to take Trump out.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

You guys really think RFK Jr. is going to get 20% of the vote?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Marianne gets around 8-9% in the primary and RFK gets around 18-22%

If it starts raining carrots from the sky and all birds turn into dinosaurs, how will that impact Biden's re-election chances?

If that’d happen he’s win Wyoming

[Minnesota Mike]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

It will rank with the "Kanye West will get enough black support to cost Biden the election" takes from 2020.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

It will rank with the "Kanye West will get enough black support to cost Biden the election" takes from 2020.

Inb4 BRTD

[Roll Roons]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

It will rank with the "Kanye West will get enough black support to cost Biden the election" takes from 2020.

Inb4 BRTD

TBF, I think the Kanye-related dooming was less about black voters and more about edgy young people of all races who thought Biden was too "corporate" or whatever.

[TheTide]

You guys really think RFK Jr. is going to get 20% of the vote?

He could do, but here is a point being missed.

RFK Jr doesn't represent a particular faction of the Democratic Party in the way that Pat Buchanan represented a particular faction of the Republican Party in 1992. This made Buchanan's showing a lot more damaging to Bush than such a showing for RFK Jr would be for Biden.  

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

It will rank with the "Kanye West will get enough black support to cost Biden the election" takes from 2020.

Inb4 BRTD

LOL do you seriously think people who claimed that weren't completely moronic imbeciles?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Calling it now, RFK Jr. Will pose a serious challenge to Biden will be one of the worst aged takes of this election.

It will rank with the "Kanye West will get enough black support to cost Biden the election" takes from 2020.

Inb4 BRTD

TBF, I think the Kanye-related dooming was less about black voters and more about edgy young people of all races who thought Biden was too "corporate" or whatever.

Do such people make up over 5% of all voters? (Considering they're much less likely to vote than the general population.) Especially since Kanye West wasn't on the ballot in all states and it was always impossible for him to get full ballot access, so for him to break 5% nationally he'd have to get double digits in states where he was on the ballot.

[TodayJunior]

I see a lot of Trump fans wish-casting a messy Democratic primary. Sorry guys, it's your side that's divided and going to have the bruiser.

[Vosem]

I see a lot of Trump fans wish-casting a messy Democratic primary. Sorry guys, it's your side that's divided and going to have the bruiser.

In the 21st century, it has more commonly been the party which has a more rancorous nomination process (2000-R, 2008-D, 2016-R, 2020-D) which wins, and all the exceptions are reelections of popular incumbents (2004-R, 2012-D).

I don't know if RFK is going to be able to hit Buchanan '92 numbers (though I don't really see why he wouldn't hit Weld '20 numbers -- double-digit numbers in a few states, particularly New England), but in principle there's obviously an open niche for a candidate that's "generic old Democrat, but very friendly to conspiracy theorizing". In the long run the Democrats won't be able to stay as high-trust as they are and will probably end up having an internal culture at least somewhat closer to the one the GOP has now.

[oldtimer]

The only incumbent President to lose primaries was Ford.

And no incumbent President ever lost the New Hampshire primary, though all those who got less that 60% where out of the White House a year later.

Presidents doing relatively badly in primaries indicates they are too unpopular to win.

[Skill and Chance]

I see a lot of Trump fans wish-casting a messy Democratic primary. Sorry guys, it's your side that's divided and going to have the bruiser.

In the 21st century, it has more commonly been the party which has a more rancorous nomination process (2000-R, 2008-D, 2016-R, 2020-D) which wins, and all the exceptions are reelections of popular incumbents (2004-R, 2012-D).

I don't know if RFK is going to be able to hit Buchanan '92 numbers (though I don't really see why he wouldn't hit Weld '20 numbers -- double-digit numbers in a few states, particularly New England), but in principle there's obviously an open niche for a candidate that's "generic old Democrat, but very friendly to conspiracy theorizing". In the long run the Democrats won't be able to stay as high-trust as they are and will probably end up having an internal culture at least somewhat closer to the one the GOP has now.

This deserves more attention.  The late Obama-Clinton-Biden approach of "let's sit back and govern by treating the pronouncements of agency experts and the latest academic research as holy writ" hasn't worked out to be a majority position even under favorable circumstances (global pandemic).  And it certainly hasn't led to college grads voting almost as Dem as African-Americans like many speculated in 2016.