My regrets about Trump 2020, and my hopes for 2024…

[BG-NY]

I think Trump made a lot of mistakes in 2020. I’m a big fan of his deviation from the GOP establishment, but he lost what was a very winnable election. My main issues with Trump in 2020:

(1) Not embracing VBM. I hated how the process was rolled out in 2020 but I support increasing voter access. Trump should’ve made it easier for his rural and working class base to vote, and lost ground in the Blue Wall.

(2) Overly religious tone. Trump really made a mistake governing like Pence down the stretch, a detestable figure. The ACB nomination shouldn’t have been his main rally cry, and hurt him in the more secular North.

(3) Phase 1 China deal. I think Trump should’ve taken no deal instead of a mediocre deal, especially given the rise of Covid. Being in a trade war with the CCP during a virus originating from China would’ve looked better.

(4) Awful RNC convention. This was like a love letter to the suburbs of Atlanta, Philly, and Milwaukee. Guess what — he did even worse in 2020 than he did in 2024. Should’ve been catered the base or moderate WWC voters.

(5) Not running on immigration. Trump’s statements for four years bore out during Covid. He even closed the borders completely. But didn’t own it at all. What a disaster from a messaging standpoint, an own goal.

Lessons I hope he learns for 2024:

(1) Pick a more secular VP and blame midterms on Roe. Trump needs the Rust Belt and might need NH/ME, and they want no part of restrictive abortion policy. Don’t go full pro-abortion but make clear that pro-choicers are welcome in the party.

(2) Get back to immigration and trade. The WWC loves national populism. Give them what they want, and remind them what they voted for in 2016. Trump is a return to the rich history of the GOP, not a recurrence of the Bush-McCain-Romney cancer.

(3) Be the candidate of peace. This doesn’t mean advocating for aggressive foreign powers, but opposing intervention by the United States. You can believe what Russia is doing is wrong and feel the US needs to prioritize the needs of its own.

(4) Have mail ballots sent to all voters. This is how Stacy Abrams was able to get out the vote. It wasn’t souls to the polls nonsense. It was sending ballots to her base. A person with a ballot is more likely to vote than a person without the ballot.

(5) Run as a moderate in the primaries. I think the nomination is a forgone consumption. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be an opportunity. Haley, Pence, DeSantis et al advocate for ridiculous, retrograde, classist policy positions. Look at ANES — 2016 Trump is perceived as more moderate, 2020 Biden is.

I’m not married to Trump for 2024. If there is a better candidate on the above I’m happy to change my mind.

[Tekken_Guy]

I have a few criticisms of your analysis

1. It’s not at all clear that Trump would have won the race had he effectively used VBM. Are there 20,000 rural votes in Wisconsin or 80,000 in Pennsylvania that he couldn’t reach due to VBM?

2. Trump’s race isn’t a foregone conclusion. His big lead is largely due to the anti-Trump vote being split and he performs worse against DeSantis head-to-head.

3. I don’t Trust Trump to pick a VP who’s anything but another loony election denier like MTG or Lake.

4. There isn’t a pro-choice lane in the primary for Trump honestly. He has to go rightward on abortion to please the evangelicals and that’ll hurt him in the general.

[BG-NY]

I have a few criticisms of your analysis

1. It’s not at all clear that Trump would have won the race had he effectively used VBM. Are there 20,000 rural votes in Wisconsin or 80,000 in Pennsylvania that he couldn’t reach due to VBM?

2. Trump’s race isn’t a foregone conclusion. His big lead is largely due to the anti-Trump vote being split and he performs worse against DeSantis head-to-head.

3. I don’t Trust Trump to pick a VP who’s anything but another loony election denier like MTG or Lake.

4. There isn’t a pro-choice lane in the primary for Trump honestly. He has to go rightward on abortion to please the evangelicals and that’ll hurt him in the general.

(1) WI yes. PA I don’t know but I can’t rule it out.

(2) That wasn’t the point of that bullet. It was to run in the moderate lane.

(3) He wouldn’t pick MTG. Lake is fine.

(4) It’s not pro-choice but abortion-neutral IMO.

[Upper Canada Tory]

One thing particularly noticeable about Trump's failed 2020 campaign is that he ran on almost entirely different issues than the ones he ran on in 2016. I abhor Trump and wouldn't want him to become President again but his flop in 2020 shows that his political instincts aren't as strong as they initially appeared to be. Also, whoever the next GOP nominee and/or President is, they should continue the US' unwavering support for Ukraine and be tough on Russia and Putin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL Biden is gonna win guess where Obama was in 2012 April 2012 he was losing to Romney 48/51 all we need is MI, WI, PA and CO, NV Steve King said D's have 247 without CO, NV and all we need is AZ, GA or VA

The RS are in trouble in MO, OH, MT, FL, TX and WV S races they didn't win the blue wall because blk people are 5 percent of population
Paul Ryan lost the Veep debate by saying he wanted 20 Corporate taxes and Biden said it should be 30 rather 28 now, they cut taxes for the rich that's why they are losing not because of Voter reform if tax cuts worked we went into a deep recession after 911 Gore said cut middle class taxes from 25 to 15 not Rich 40 to 35 Bush W did that instead and he erased Clinton surplus

DeSantis voted for the 20 percent tax cuts under Speaker Ryan that s why he is at 47 that's why old School and MT Treasure likes him they are Ryan, Johnson Walker types still 47 percent, Obama and Ryan 50/47 they called Ryan and Romney 47 like what DeSantis is gonna get

Rassy has Trump at 50/39 in AZ and OHPI polled Gallego ahead and he had in 2006 Brown losing to DeWine 45/39 it's in the database and Laxalt beating CCM why because BLK ARE 5 PERCENT OF THE VOTE R POLLS UNDERPOLL BLK PEOPLE THATS WHY THEY ARE R polls Marist was accurate

RS are DOOMED

[BG-NY]

One thing particularly noticeable about Trump's failed 2020 campaign is that he ran on almost entirely different issues than the ones he ran on in 2016. I abhor Trump and wouldn't want him to become President again but his flop in 2020 shows that his political instincts aren't as strong as they initially appeared to be. Also, whoever the next GOP nominee and/or President is, they should continue the US' unwavering support for Ukraine and be tough on Russia and Putin.

Do you see an appetite for this among the GOP+leaners in polling?

[BG-NY]

LoL Biden is gonna win guess where Obama was in 2012 April 2012 he was losing to Romney 48/51 all we need is MI, WI, PA and CO, NV Steve King said D's have 247 without CO, NV and all we need is AZ, GA or VA

The RS are in trouble in MO, OH, MT, FL, TX and WV S races they didn't win the blue wall because blk people are 5 percent of population
Paul Ryan lost the Veep debate by saying he wanted 20 Corporate taxes and Biden said it should be 30 rather 28 now, they cut taxes for the rich that's why they are losing not because of Voter reform if tax cuts worked we went into a deep recession after 911 Gore said cut middle class taxes from 25 to 15 not Rich 40 to 35 Bush W did that instead and he erased Clinton surplus

DeSantis voted for the 20 percent tax cuts under Speaker Ryan that s why he is at 47 that's why old School and MT Treasure likes him they are Ryan, Johnson Walker types still 47 percent, Obama and Ryan 50/47 they called Ryan and Romney 47 like what DeSantis is gonna get

Rassy has Trump at 50/39 in AZ and OHPI polled Gallego ahead and he had in 2006 Brown losing to DeWine 45/39 it's in the database and Laxalt beating CCM why because BLK ARE 5 PERCENT OF THE VOTE R POLLS UNDERPOLL BLK PEOPLE THATS WHY THEY ARE R polls Marist was accurate

RS are DOOMED

You will vote for TRUMP

[Upper Canada Tory]

One thing particularly noticeable about Trump's failed 2020 campaign is that he ran on almost entirely different issues than the ones he ran on in 2016. I abhor Trump and wouldn't want him to become President again but his flop in 2020 shows that his political instincts aren't as strong as they initially appeared to be. Also, whoever the next GOP nominee and/or President is, they should continue the US' unwavering support for Ukraine and be tough on Russia and Putin.

Do you see an appetite for this among the GOP+leaners in polling?

No, but it's the right thing to do.

[The Mikado]

Trump, like everyone else on the planet, was caught flat-footed by COVID, but failed to make the jump between the campaign he WANTED to run and the campaign he actually had to run. You can tell Trump thought it was unfair he had to cut back massively on his huge rallies and that his rallies that did happen had far lower turnout, but he had literally months to think about other approaches. Knocking Biden for "hiding in his basement" at a time when a lot of people were still scared of COVID and viewed hiding as basically pragmatic and sensible was really a non-starter.

I don't think Trump was alone on this problem. Bernie Sanders' entire strategy would've been totally f-ed if he'd won the nomination in 2020 and suddenly realized that the entire Democratic base regarded massive large scale rallies as superspreaders. That was his entire thing.