Is this an accurate list of who Dave Leip predicted to win Presidential nominations?
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  Is this an accurate list of who Dave Leip predicted to win Presidential nominations?
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Author Topic: Is this an accurate list of who Dave Leip predicted to win Presidential nominations?  (Read 218 times)
America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
Junior Chimp
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« on: February 24, 2023, 05:51:16 PM »

(as of when he picked which colors to assign to which candidates on his maps)

2020 Dem: Warren
2016 Dem: Clinton
2016 Rep: Bush
2012 Rep: Gingrich
2008 Dem: Clinton
2008 Rep: McCain

(everything from 1992 to 2004 is the correct prediction if this is the case)

Asking based on the fact that I am looking for which candidates have the same color as used for their party on general elections on the site.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
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« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2023, 08:30:25 AM »

(as of when he picked which colors to assign to which candidates on his maps)

2020 Dem: Warren
2016 Dem: Clinton
2016 Rep: Bush
2012 Rep: Gingrich
2008 Dem: Clinton
2008 Rep: McCain

(everything from 1992 to 2004 is the correct prediction if this is the case)

Asking based on the fact that I am looking for which candidates have the same color as used for their party on general elections on the site.

I have been pondering over this matter for a long time, and I've come to the conclusion that the only correct answer is...

YES!

With Gingrich being the outlier, as Romney had already been denoted by the color green four years ago, and Dave obviously doesn't want to allocate one and the same candidate two different colors.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2023, 02:29:33 AM »

There's a bit of a pattern to the colors, but it's not as simple as the candidate he expects to be nominated gets the party color. For red and blue it's basically the two most "establishment" friendly candidates, with the further left one getting red and further right getting blue, basically the more moderate candidate gets the opposite party's color. Green goes to the "outsider" who is still in sync with the party well, orange is for a more out there candidate who wouldn't be accepted by much of the party, and yellow is an "underdog" who no one saw coming, although that could be because Dave uses yellow as the default for all of his third party and minor candidates.

The biggest exception though is if a candidate has already ran and won states, they get to keep the same color. Hence why Romney was green in 2012 even though he would fit blue better, and Gingrich was a better fit for green. Although on the Democratic side this isn't really followed well: 2008 had John Edwards as blue even though he was green in 2004, and fit green better this year too...with the pattern it should've been Obama red, Hillary blue and Edwards green. And in 2016 he didn't use blue at all, green fit Sanders much better granted and Hillary already had red...maybe he intended to use it for Martin O'Malley if he went anywhere.

As for the colors of who was nominated:

2004 D: red
2008 D: green
2008 R: blue
2012 R: green
2016 D: red
2016 R: orange
2020 D: blue
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