Could Jimmy Carter have won if not for the Iran Hostage Crisis?

[BG-NY]

Or was the die already cast?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Carter actually was losing in primary polls to Kennedy pre Hostage crises and his all time approval low happened in October of 1979 not October of 1980. The hostage crises actually led to a rally around the flag effect that improved his approvals to the mid 60s and it’s likely without that he doesn’t win the primary .

Also multiple polls during the election(including exits) showed Carter was harmed more due to the state of the economy than the hostage crises

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He needed CA and Teddy Kennedy would have won it I suppose but Ted Kennedy just Bobby Kennedy in 1968 would have been the best fit but HHH could have put Bobby as Veep

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Carter actually was losing in primary polls to Kennedy pre Hostage crises and his all time approval low happened in October of 1979 not October of 1980. The hostage crises actually led to a rally around the flag effect that improved his approvals to the mid 60s and it’s likely without that he doesn’t win the primary .

Also multiple polls during the election(including exits) showed Carter was harmed more due to the state of the economy than the hostage crises

CA was the difference maker 44% of Latinos went to Reagan and Nixon and JFK didn't need TX against Goldwater he needed CA

[dw93]

As Old School Republican said, there's a chance he would've lost the nomination without the initial rally around the flag effect that came in the immediate aftermath of the Hostages being taken. I do think in the absence of the hostage crisis, while a Republican would've still won the Presidency, the general election would've been closer that it was and that means the Democrats would likely keep the Senate.

[Mr. Smith]

Possible, but not probable.

He'd keep The South, and that's an EV stronghold, but whether he can hold enough Northeastern or Midwestern states...that's where it gets tricky.

The popular vote is definitely not happening.

[Suburbia]

No. The economy was weak and favored the challenger.  1976 was a poisoned chalice.

[Alben Barkley]

Carter actually was losing in primary polls to Kennedy pre Hostage crises and his all time approval low happened in October of 1979 not October of 1980. The hostage crises actually led to a rally around the flag effect that improved his approvals to the mid 60s and it’s likely without that he doesn’t win the primary .

Also multiple polls during the election(including exits) showed Carter was harmed more due to the state of the economy than the hostage crises

The hostage crisis INITIALLY caused a rally around the flag effect, but there is no way the crisis being dragged out as long as it did was good for Carter.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Carter actually was losing in primary polls to Kennedy pre Hostage crises and his all time approval low happened in October of 1979 not October of 1980. The hostage crises actually led to a rally around the flag effect that improved his approvals to the mid 60s and it’s likely without that he doesn’t win the primary .

Also multiple polls during the election(including exits) showed Carter was harmed more due to the state of the economy than the hostage crises

The hostage crisis INITIALLY caused a rally around the flag effect, but there is no way the crisis being dragged out as long as it did was good for Carter.

I agree but the economy was gonna doom Carter either way and most polls including exit polls showed Carter was more negatively impacted by the economy than the Hostage Crises.

One thing the Hostage Crises dragging as long as it did caused was the GOP taking control of the senate which was critical for Reagan to have the legislative success he did. For example without the senate, Reagan likely gets a smaller tax cut passed rather then Kemp-Roth and his executive appointees likely would not be able to be as pro business as they were.

[Benjamin Frank]

Without the Iranian Hostage Crisis there might also not have been the 1979 OPEC oil embargo. So, who knows?

[MillennialModerate]

Double edged sword.

Ted Kennedy would’ve been the 40th President of the United States if it hadn’t had happened because Carter would’ve lost the nomination

However once we got to November of 80…. it helped Reagan

[Vosem]

Polling during 1980 saw a constantly-swinging effect between around a Reagan+2 and around a Reagan+9 outcome, with the undecideds ultimately breaking to Reagan and him winning in a landslide. The Electoral College actually favored Carter by rather a lot under the hood, to the point that Reagan would've needed to win by 3 points or so in the PV to be elected.

I think the timing of the final debate helped Reagan enormously, and in spite of the general poor conditions that year and the eventual landslide Carter's defeat was not inevitable, and could've been averted by simply having a better final media cycle (one of the earliest elections at which that was true). It's tough to think that way now after how successful and universally acclaimed his administration was, but for much of the 1980 cycle Reagan was perceived as a quite extreme figure by many voters.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Polling during 1980 saw a constantly-swinging effect between around a Reagan+2 and around a Reagan+9 outcome, with the undecideds ultimately breaking to Reagan and him winning in a landslide. The Electoral College actually favored Carter by rather a lot under the hood, to the point that Reagan would've needed to win by 3 points or so in the PV to be elected.

I think the timing of the final debate helped Reagan enormously, and in spite of the general poor conditions that year and the eventual landslide Carter's defeat was not inevitable, and could've been averted by simply having a better final media cycle (one of the earliest elections at which that was true). It's tough to think that way now after how successful and universally acclaimed his administration was, but for much of the 1980 cycle Reagan was perceived as a quite extreme figure by many voters.

The reason the debate went so badly for Carter is that :

1. Carter held out debating Reagan till the very end when

2. Reagan just had to show that he wouldn’t eliminate entitlements or start WW3 as voters were looking for any excuse to get rid of carter . Once the debate calmed people’s fears , Carter was gonna collapse.

[Benjamin Frank]

Polling during 1980 saw a constantly-swinging effect between around a Reagan+2 and around a Reagan+9 outcome, with the undecideds ultimately breaking to Reagan and him winning in a landslide. The Electoral College actually favored Carter by rather a lot under the hood, to the point that Reagan would've needed to win by 3 points or so in the PV to be elected.

I think the timing of the final debate helped Reagan enormously, and in spite of the general poor conditions that year and the eventual landslide Carter's defeat was not inevitable, and could've been averted by simply having a better final media cycle (one of the earliest elections at which that was true). It's tough to think that way now after how successful and universally acclaimed his administration was, but for much of the 1980 cycle Reagan was perceived as a quite extreme figure by many voters.

The reason the debate went so badly for Carter is that :

1. Carter held out debating Reagan till the very end when

2. Reagan just had to show that he wouldn’t eliminate entitlements or start WW3 as voters were looking for any excuse to get rid of carter . Once the debate calmed people’s fears , Carter was gonna collapse.

Reagan stealing the Carter debate prepration book helped a lot as well.

[Benjamin Frank]

Polling during 1980 saw a constantly-swinging effect between around a Reagan+2 and around a Reagan+9 outcome, with the undecideds ultimately breaking to Reagan and him winning in a landslide. The Electoral College actually favored Carter by rather a lot under the hood, to the point that Reagan would've needed to win by 3 points or so in the PV to be elected.

I think the timing of the final debate helped Reagan enormously, and in spite of the general poor conditions that year and the eventual landslide Carter's defeat was not inevitable, and could've been averted by simply having a better final media cycle (one of the earliest elections at which that was true). It's tough to think that way now after how successful and universally acclaimed his administration was, but for much of the 1980 cycle Reagan was perceived as a quite extreme figure by many voters.

The Iranian Hostage crisis started exactly one year and a couple days before election day. Very unlikely that was a coincidence.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Polling during 1980 saw a constantly-swinging effect between around a Reagan+2 and around a Reagan+9 outcome, with the undecideds ultimately breaking to Reagan and him winning in a landslide. The Electoral College actually favored Carter by rather a lot under the hood, to the point that Reagan would've needed to win by 3 points or so in the PV to be elected.

I think the timing of the final debate helped Reagan enormously, and in spite of the general poor conditions that year and the eventual landslide Carter's defeat was not inevitable, and could've been averted by simply having a better final media cycle (one of the earliest elections at which that was true). It's tough to think that way now after how successful and universally acclaimed his administration was, but for much of the 1980 cycle Reagan was perceived as a quite extreme figure by many voters.

The reason the debate went so badly for Carter is that :

1. Carter held out debating Reagan till the very end when

2. Reagan just had to show that he wouldn’t eliminate entitlements or start WW3 as voters were looking for any excuse to get rid of carter . Once the debate calmed people’s fears , Carter was gonna collapse.

Reagan stealing the Carter debate prepration book helped a lot as well.

I watched the debate and Reagan really didn’t have that impressive of a win point to point .

Anyway there has never been proof of this as well and is just a conspiracy theory

[Benjamin Frank]

Polling during 1980 saw a constantly-swinging effect between around a Reagan+2 and around a Reagan+9 outcome, with the undecideds ultimately breaking to Reagan and him winning in a landslide. The Electoral College actually favored Carter by rather a lot under the hood, to the point that Reagan would've needed to win by 3 points or so in the PV to be elected.

I think the timing of the final debate helped Reagan enormously, and in spite of the general poor conditions that year and the eventual landslide Carter's defeat was not inevitable, and could've been averted by simply having a better final media cycle (one of the earliest elections at which that was true). It's tough to think that way now after how successful and universally acclaimed his administration was, but for much of the 1980 cycle Reagan was perceived as a quite extreme figure by many voters.

The reason the debate went so badly for Carter is that :

1. Carter held out debating Reagan till the very end when

2. Reagan just had to show that he wouldn’t eliminate entitlements or start WW3 as voters were looking for any excuse to get rid of carter . Once the debate calmed people’s fears , Carter was gonna collapse.

Reagan stealing the Carter debate prepration book helped a lot as well.

I watched the debate and Reagan really didn’t have that impressive of a win point to point .

Anyway there has never been proof of this as well and is just a conspiracy theory

Who stole the book isn't as important as Reagan using at best 'situational ethics' to make use of it rather than to say 'This is stolen material. This is unethical and immoral to use.'

Also, to not mention it leaves out a key point even if you don't think it was unethical to use. But then, if you aren't troubled by it, why wouldn't you have mentioned it?

It can't be disputed that it helped Reagan blunt Carter's points, even if it didn't make Reagan look better.  

I don't dispute that Carter was arrogant going into the debate though.

[President Johnson]

Carter actually was losing in primary polls to Kennedy pre Hostage crises and his all time approval low happened in October of 1979 not October of 1980. The hostage crises actually led to a rally around the flag effect that improved his approvals to the mid 60s and it’s likely without that he doesn’t win the primary .

Also multiple polls during the election(including exits) showed Carter was harmed more due to the state of the economy than the hostage crises

I agree with this. I think Carter would have done somewhat better in general election though. But still a convincing defeat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Carter actually was losing in primary polls to Kennedy pre Hostage crises and his all time approval low happened in October of 1979 not October of 1980. The hostage crises actually led to a rally around the flag effect that improved his approvals to the mid 60s and it’s likely without that he doesn’t win the primary .

Also multiple polls during the election(including exits) showed Carter was harmed more due to the state of the economy than the hostage crises

I agree with this. I think Carter would have done somewhat better in general election though. But still a convincing defeat.

Though a convincing defeat rather than a landslide defeat probably means the democrats keep the senate , which would in turn water down the Reagan agenda