Intel on Iran's nuclear capabilities may be unreliable

[Joe Republic]

U.N. calls U.S. data on Iran's nuclear aims unreliable

Tips about supposed secret weapons sites and documents with missile designs haven't panned out, diplomats say.

By Bob Drogin and Kim Murphy
Times Staff Writers
Published February 25, 2007


VIENNA — Although international concern is growing about Iran's nuclear program and its regional ambitions, diplomats here say most U.S. intelligence shared with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency has proved inaccurate and none has led to significant discoveries inside Iran.

The officials said the CIA and other Western spy services had provided sensitive information to the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency at least since 2002, when Iran's long-secret nuclear program was exposed. But none of the tips about supposed secret weapons sites provided clear evidence that the Islamic Republic was developing illicit weapons.

"Since 2002, pretty much all the intelligence that's come to us has proved to be wrong," a senior diplomat at the IAEA said. Another official here described the agency's intelligence stream as "very cold now" because "so little panned out."

The reliability of U.S. information and assessments on Iran is increasingly at issue as the Bush administration confronts the emerging regional power on several fronts: its expanding nuclear effort, its alleged support for insurgents in Iraq and its backing of Middle East militant groups.

The CIA still faces harsh criticism for its prewar intelligence errors on Iraq. No one here argues that U.S. intelligence officials have fallen this time for crudely forged documents or pushed shoddy analysis. IAEA officials, who openly challenged U.S. assessments that Saddam Hussein was developing a nuclear bomb, say the Americans are much more cautious in assessing Iran.

American officials privately acknowledge that much of their evidence on Iran's nuclear plans and programs remains ambiguous, fragmented and difficult to prove.

The IAEA has its own concerns about Iran's nuclear program, although agency officials say they have found no proof that nuclear material has been diverted to a weapons program.

Iran's Islamist government began enriching uranium in small amounts in August in a program it says will provide fuel only for civilian power stations, not nuclear weapons.


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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Really no surprise. We saw the same stuff with the Iraq intelligence. Of course that didn't stop Bush from getting his war on, anyways.

[Colin]

Seems likely. You don't go from building reactors to having a bomb in a year and a weapon that could actually be fitted onto a missile is years away from the first tests of the bomb. It took India about five years to get the first atomic bomb that was small enough to fit inside a missile and about the same amount of time for the Pakistanis. It's a large step from uranium to bomb and from bomb to having a fully functioning delivery system.