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Author Topic: White Miamians  (Read 718 times)
TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« on: December 26, 2022, 03:55:44 PM »

Do white (non-Latino) Miamians vote to the left of Cuban-Americans/Latinos? Seems like the only place in the country where that’s possible.
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leecannon
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2022, 08:40:40 PM »

Most probably yes
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lfromnj
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« Reply #2 on: December 26, 2022, 10:16:00 PM »

They(non hispanic whites)probably are slightly to the right of Dade as a whole but much further D than the hispanics of Miami Dade.
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有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency
khuzifenq
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« Reply #3 on: December 26, 2022, 10:27:33 PM »

They(non hispanic whites)probably are slightly to the right of Dade as a whole but much further D than the hispanics of Miami Dade.

Miami-Dade is probably too Latino for both Non-Hispanic Whites and Latinos to be more R than the county as a whole.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2022, 10:56:26 PM »

I guess it would also vary between say Miamians with southern roots (who might even be to the right of Cubans) and transplants who I imagine would be slightly more D.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #5 on: December 26, 2022, 11:06:07 PM »

They(non hispanic whites)probably are slightly to the right of Dade as a whole but much further D than the hispanics of Miami Dade.

Miami-Dade is probably too Latino for both Non-Hispanic Whites and Latinos to be more R than the county as a whole.

I think a large question is how you count mixed Afro-Latinos, which lean pretty D.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #6 on: December 26, 2022, 11:40:03 PM »

They(non hispanic whites)probably are slightly to the right of Dade as a whole but much further D than the hispanics of Miami Dade.

Miami-Dade is probably too Latino for both Non-Hispanic Whites and Latinos to be more R than the county as a whole.

Group A just needs to be say like R+10. B is D+5  and C is D+85. Where abc are hispanocs, whites and blacks and the total combined is the presidential vote.
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有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency
khuzifenq
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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2022, 12:27:27 AM »

They(non hispanic whites)probably are slightly to the right of Dade as a whole but much further D than the hispanics of Miami Dade.

Miami-Dade is probably too Latino for both Non-Hispanic Whites and Latinos to be more R than the county as a whole.

I think a large question is how you count mixed Afro-Latinos, which lean pretty D.

In what universe would Enrique Tarrio not be considered Hispanic?

I'd count mixed ADOS/otherwise non-Hispanic Black + Latino people as their own little beautiful thing, i.e. Other/Mixed.

Group A just needs to be say like R+10. B is D+5  and C is D+85. Where abc are hispanics, whites and blacks and the total combined is the presidential vote.

Statistical Atlas says the county is 65-15-18 so assuming something like 62-20-16 turnout with the remaining 2% breaking 70-30 D, you get 0.62(55) + 0.2(47.5) + 0.16(7.5) + 0.02(30) = 45.4% Trump - 54.6% Biden, which is a little more D than the actual 2020 result. Guess you're right on this one, although Idk what actual turnout by race was.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2022, 12:31:33 AM »

Miamians with southern roots (who might even be to the right of Cubans)

This isn't a group of people that actually exists anymore in Miami.
Judt about all of them left decades ago to Broward (and then left Broward after that) or died off.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like you'd be hard-pressed to find this group basically anywhere south of Tampa/Lakeland/Melbourne.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2022, 08:17:39 AM »

Miamians with southern roots (who might even be to the right of Cubans)

This isn't a group of people that actually exists anymore in Miami.
Judt about all of them left decades ago to Broward (and then left Broward after that) or died off.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I feel like you'd be hard-pressed to find this group basically anywhere south of Tampa/Lakeland/Melbourne.

Florida, the one place where it gets more southern the more northern you get.
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BRTD
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« Reply #10 on: December 30, 2022, 09:33:14 AM »

For a similar example of this whites in Hawaii vote well to the left of non-whites there....in fact they're probably the most Democratic group aside from Hawaii's small black population.
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有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency
khuzifenq
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« Reply #11 on: December 30, 2022, 10:07:24 PM »

For a similar example of this whites in Hawaii vote well to the left of non-whites there....in fact they're probably the most Democratic group aside from Hawaii's small black population.

AP Votecast says HI Whites voted 63-35 Biden while nonwhites voted 64-34 Biden. They also have the non-white, non-black, non-Latino majority at either 66-32 or 65-33 Biden. Try again.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: December 30, 2022, 10:12:57 PM »

For a similar example of this whites in Hawaii vote well to the left of non-whites there....in fact they're probably the most Democratic group aside from Hawaii's small black population.

AP Votecast says HI Whites voted 63-35 Biden while nonwhites voted 64-34 Biden. They also have the non-white, non-black, non-Latino majority at either 66-32 or 65-33 Biden. Try again.
It was true in the previous exit polls I saw, and even that is within the margin of error.
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