Jacky Rosen's Clark County margin

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Notably, Catherine Cortez Masto carried Clark County last year, but it was with such low turnout and a reduced margin that she would have lost statewide without Washoe County. That's right - Cortez Masto owns her entire 2022 come-from-behind victory to a single county that she didn't even win in 2016.

So with Clark trending R, can irrelevant backbencher "Wacky Jacky" carry it? What will the margin be? What does she need to win? She's seen as a bit of an overperformer, but she ran against an awful House candidate in 2016, and then ran statewide in the blue wave year of 2018. A lot has changed in Nevada since then, and although Republicans still haven't won a Congressional seat in greater Las Vegas, this could change with the fall of Rosen.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Option two.

[Sir Mohamed]

She wins 51-45% and narrowly gets reelected. NV is the GOP's FL (at least pre-2020).

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.

She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.

She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

Did you know Dona Titus is the most liberal member in the US H and anxious to end the Filibuster and she is to the left of CCM and Rosen she is a socialist and she was just reelected last yr, in Purple NV; consequently, Laxalt lost. Lombardo won due to fact he was another Sandoval and will easily get reelected in 26


Users act like we didn't just vote in 22

[Tekken_Guy]

I've never understood why Tammy Baldwin and Bob Casey are considered quite safe yet Jacky Rosen isn't.

[TML]

If we use recent elections as reference points, then I'd say that a Democratic statewide win involves them winning Clark County by at least 7 points.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MT TREASURE has the most inaccurate map Fetterman losing and he is telling us about voting behavior, I am not trying to discredited him but we have more knowledge than him , the ones that Pred Fetterman winning, Fetterman losing is the most inaccurate Pred because it was based on Fetterman speech not policy

I told him that already, yeah I overpred but I do it because I am rooting for Ds not Rs

[President Johnson]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.

She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

Well, didn't you also predict that Cortez-Masto would end up losing quite easily?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.

She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

Yeah. Clark is over 70% of Nevada's population - if Clarke is shifting 5%+ to the right, it's gonna be really hard for Dems to make it up elsewhere.

I would also remind folks Dems generally held up fine in Clark County in 2022, whereas in Miami-Dade Dems saw a complete collapse. Clark shifting hard right in 2024 certainly isn't inevitable and I'd argue not particuarly likely, though I def see certain communities within Clark shifting notably to the right.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.

She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

Yeah. Clark is over 70% of Nevada's population - if Clarke is shifting 5%+ to the right, it's gonna be really hard for Dems to make it up elsewhere.

I would also remind folks Dems generally held up fine in Clark County in 2022, whereas in Miami-Dade Dems saw a complete collapse. Clark shifting hard right in 2022 certainly isn't inevitable and I'd argue not particuarly likely, though I def see certain communities within Clark shifting notably to the right.

True - and like many other counties that comprise an entire metro area, there are multiple different shifts going on beneath the hood. Rosen will likely improve quite a bit in Henderson, for example (not to mention she's from there).

[ProgressiveModerate]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.

She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

Yeah. Clark is over 70% of Nevada's population - if Clarke is shifting 5%+ to the right, it's gonna be really hard for Dems to make it up elsewhere.

I would also remind folks Dems generally held up fine in Clark County in 2022, whereas in Miami-Dade Dems saw a complete collapse. Clark shifting hard right in 2022 certainly isn't inevitable and I'd argue not particuarly likely, though I def see certain communities within Clark shifting notably to the right.

True - and like many other counties that comprise an entire metro area, there are multiple different shifts going on beneath the hood. Rosen will likely improve quite a bit in Henderson, for example (not to mention she's from there).

Yeah in hindsight, her 2016 House win was quite impressive, and she basically universally outran Biden in most of metro Vegas, with the main exception being the Summerlin area. Still, it's a bit hard to de-aggregate what was a genuine overperformance vs 2018 being a better national environment for Dems than 2020. She certainly isn't an electoral titan, but this notion she's somehow an unperformer seems unfounded.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Yeah in hindsight, her 2016 House win was quite impressive, and she basically universally outran Biden in most of metro Vegas, with the main exception being the Summerlin area. Still, it's a bit hard to de-aggregate what was a genuine overperformance vs 2018 being a better national environment for Dems than 2020. She certainly isn't an electoral titan, but this notion she's somehow an unperformer seems unfounded.

And Biden probably only did better than Rosen in the Summerlin area because that's the fastest D-trending part of the Las Vegas metro. I expect Rosen 2024 will be much stronger than even Biden 2020 in that region.

Another reason why it's difficult to tell if Rosen is an overperformer or underperformer is the fact that she was running against an incumbent Republican Senator in 2018 (Dean Heller) and was the only Democrat to defeat an incumbent R Senator that year. So was the fact she won at all impressive? Or should the blue wave have carried her further? She ran mostly in line with other statewide Democrats that year.

I would say she likely performs as "generic Democrat" since she is about as generic as they get. And for 2024, that means outperforming Biden. With increased Hispanic turnout and better margins in Summerlin and Henderson (as well as Reno), I don't really see her as being in that much trouble, even if Biden is in the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea that Rosen is favored in this race even if there’s a complete Clark collapse for Biden/national Democrats is wishcasting. She’ll outperform Biden, yes, and Brown is an overrated recruit for sure, but Nevada is not "the Republicans' Florida" or whatever point people are trying to make here.


NV ISNT SHIFT RIGHT
She’s almost as overrated as Bob Casey, honestly.

Yeah. Clark is over 70% of Nevada's population - if Clarke is shifting 5%+ to the right, it's gonna be really hard for Dems to make it up elsewhere.

I would also remind folks Dems generally held up fine in Clark County in 2022, whereas in Miami-Dade Dems saw a complete collapse. Clark shifting hard right in 2024 certainly isn't inevitable and I'd argue not particuarly likely, though I def see certain communities within Clark shifting notably to the right.

[Xing]

If Brown is the Republican nominee (probably more likely than not), then I'd guess the Clark result is pretty close to the 2022 Senate race, which means that the race overall could go either way.

[S019]

She wins Clark County and I imagine she would lose re-election, unless the national environment changes meaningfully.