Which suburban Atlanta county will vote Democratic first?

[Sol]

Omitting Fayette here because, well, it's obviously the most likely one to flip.

[Sol]

I actually think there's a decent argument for Paulding or Spalding, imo.

Forsyth is more unpredictable, since Democratic growth is more dependent on economically conservative white right-wing suburbanites. Coweta is similar, whereas both Paulding and Spalding are in the early phases of diversification.

[GregTheGreat657]

Spaulding, because it was the closest.

[Senator Golden]

Its anyone's guess as to which county will flip first. However looking at the trends and growth you may find some counties more likely to flip than others.

For Example, take Fayette County. Everyone can agree that this county will continue to grow and thus become more democratic. In 2020, it voted for Trump by almost 7 points, a shift of 12 points towards the democrats. If Trump were to run again, this county would likely continue to shift left and voted blue for the first time in years.

To answer your question though, I believe both Paulding and Forsyth have the ability to vote democrat in the same election. With such explosive growth, both of these counties will likely flip blue in the next two decades. Trump only received 64 and 66 percent in both of these counties. That may seem like a lot but with such explosive growth its definitely not out of the question. Just look at Gwinnett and Cobb as an example.

Its not just these counties that could likely flip and in the future. We could see by 2050 that Cherokee, Coweta, Barrow, Spaulding, Carroll, and Hall counties all become extremely competitive and even blue. I know for a fact that the growth is showing no sides of slowing down. I live right over the Georgia border in Tennessee and we are even seeing folks moving here from inner Atlanta and commuting to work there. Atlanta is becoming the economic center of the south. Its not completely out of the question that 2016 was the last time Georgia will vote republican for president for many decades. But if I had to give you one county of the two I would say Paulding. The only reason I wouldn't say Spaulding even though it was the closest is because the growth is slower and it still has old Southern roots.

[Sol]

Paulding appears to have had the biggest swing from 2020 to 2022.