If there is really a red wave, where in the nation would it be most profound?

[iceman]

If the a red wave is building and coming ashore on Nov. 8, where exactly in the country would be most likely to have the biggest effects?

I suspect it would be felt big in the southeastern states of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. Also in the Pacific Northwest, not necessarily winning them but we can see big gains in those areas for the GOP. haha

[Ferguson97]

Probably the Southwest, so Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and the RGV area of Texas. Democrats have a higher floor in places like the Midwest.

[iceman]

Back in 2010, we saw a huge red wave but some areas in the country were waveproof like the Pacific states of WA, OR and CA where the GOP netted only 1 seat. But it was more profound in the midwest, especially east of the Mississippi river. Even in the northeast, the red wave crested as the GOP gained 6 seats in New York and both NH seats flipped that year

This time around I think the region most unlikely to be affected by the red wave is New England based on the polls. But basing on the trends, it’s most likely building around Florida as what we are seeing in the EV.

[It’s so Joever]

Florida, Texas, and the Pacific NW.

[iceman]

I think Minnesota is the state that seems to be waveproof this year.

[jamestroll]

Long term, much of the midwest the Democrats do not have much to lose except perhaps in Illinois and even there is sketchy for the GOP.

Edit: Wisconsin obviously still has a lot of room for the Democrats to fall. But not so much in seats, but for percentage of vote statewide.

If anything, I expect states like Missouri to become more Democratic friendly over the next decade. Not saying a Democrat can win it.

Optics can influence what the media would say. If Democrats lose all three competitive Virginia seats the media will be all over saying how VA is a red state now. Though, I do not think that will happen. VA 10 may be a bridge to far.. but you never know.


I would not be shocked if in a few cycles if you can cement Arizona as a Lean Democratic state and Nevada as a Republican state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Back in 2010, we saw a huge red wave but some areas in the country were waveproof like the Pacific states of WA, OR and CA where the GOP netted only 1 seat. But it was more profound in the midwest, especially east of the Mississippi river. Even in the northeast, the red wave crested as the GOP gained 6 seats in New York and both NH seats flipped that year

This time around I think the region most unlikely to be affected by the red wave is New England based on the polls. But basing on the trends, it’s most likely building around Florida as what we are seeing in the EV.

100%. Midterms generally tend to accelerate underlying shifts in the previous election and Dems really had a lot of problems with Hispanics, non college whites, and Asians throughout much of the sunbelt. I think Florida obviously got a lot of coverage but there were concerning counter shifts against Dems in places like downtown Pheonix, Las Vegas, and Houston which imo aren't frequently discussed enough. A lot of these places have been heavily impacted by inflation and gas prices, and Dems have done little to appeal to many of these communities.

Also, I'm kind of excluding Colorado from the southwest. It seems to have much more in common with costal states being dominated by one largely white college educated liberal metro.

On the flipside, the northeast seems a bit too entrenched and culturally removed from the rest of the country to be as heavily impacted. Turnout dynamics in New England, PA, DE, MD, VA and arguably NC tend to favor Dems in off cycles these days before factoring in national implications.

The deep South also tends to be under reactive to waves due extreme polarization, so GA in particular probably remains pretty stable.

[astrohuncho]

anywhere west of the rockies. just look at a county graph of gas prices and you'll see why