How would an "Americans abroad" general election map look?

[Crumpets]

Americans who vote abroad usually (always?) have their votes counted by their home state. For example, when I voted in Scotland, my vote was counted as part of Washington State's tally. Other countries (those that don't have electoral colleges or straight parliamentary systems) will sometimes put out maps of how their citizens abroad voted. Brazil's map is in its thread, and I know I remember seeing a map for France's last election as well.

How do American citizens who live in various countries vote? What are the safe D, safe R, and tossup countries?

Personally I'd suspect most countries are pretty D-leaning right now, with some exceptions of countries whose expat population is mostly wealthy businessmen like Saudi Arabia, but probably some other random R countries as well.

Discuss with maps.

[Roll Roons]

Americans who live abroad tend to be overwhelmingly liberal. If they had their own electoral college vote, it would probably be the second most Democratic after DC.

If I had to guess as to which countries are home to slightly more conservative expats, I'd go with Russia or the Gulf states. But even those people would vote Democratic by solid margins.

[ottermax]

Democrats do offer a primary for voters abroad - not sure if they break down the data by country or region at all.

As stated already most countries would be extremely Democratic except some Gulf states, maybe some areas of Eastern Europe, Israel, and probably several Latin American countries where there are more natives with US citizenship rather than expats who choose to live there.

One bizarre feature of the US is that there are practically no countries with working class American migrants, so it just favors the party of the more upper class to begin with. Historically this would have been the Republicans - take a look at the history of Hawaii for example.

[Kamala's side hoe]

One bizarre feature of the US is that there are practically no countries with working class American migrants, so it just favors the party of the more upper class to begin with. Historically this would have been the Republicans - take a look at the history of Hawaii for example.

The class and income distribution of US expats in different countries would be really interesting to look into. It's hard for me to imagine US migrants living abroad who both 1) have no family ties to their country of residence and 2) never went to college, but that's what you get when you exposure to the expat world comes from watching Globe Trekker and reading NatGeo.

[Hash]

According to FVAP's estimates here, the largest VAP American expat populations are:

1. Canada (516k)
2. UK (327k)
3. Israel (183.5k)
4. France (181k)
5. Australia (126k)
6. Japan (92.8k)
7. Switzerland (87.7k)
8. Mexico (80.8k)
9. Germany (75k)
10. Hong Kong (64.8k)

However, not all expats would register to vote from abroad (at most around half would, assuming a simple procedure). The main quasi-universal aspect of expat voting is that turnout is very low, much lower than in the country, even assuming the most accessible voting procedure (voting at all embassies and consulates, like France and many other countries have) - France had 35-38% turnout in 2022 abroad, Italy had 26% turnout this year, Colombia had 31.5% turnout this year. Only those who still actively keep an interest in their home country's politics and/or still have active connections with it, bother voting (although even in the most accessible voting scenarios, there are still big obstacles - not everyone lives close to an embassy or consulate).

According to FVAP's demographic data, only 20% of US expats have less than a bachelor's degree and three-fifths are employed (and around one fifth are seniors/retirees). About a third say they're abroad because they were born abroad and/or are dual citizens.

Obviously, especially post-2016, US expats who vote would be overwhelmingly Democratic - like how Macron defeated Panzergirl 86 to 14 in the runoff this year. Against Trump, you could probably expect such numbers.

As for specific countries, you'd assume that Americans in Canada, Australia and Europe would be overwhelmingly Democratic by massive margins. Perhaps some of the Americans in Switzerland are there for tax reasons, so they might be more Republican, especially pre-2016. Americans in Mexico would also probably be heavily Democratic - a lot of them are dual nationals (a huge lot of them are under 18, according to Mexico's census data) and/or US-born, so I assume turnout would be quite low. Israel could be interesting - I assume a lot of Americans there are Jewish and made aliyah, so they could have different voting patterns than most Jews in the US.

I'm not sure if US military abroad is included in FVAP estimates. If they did vote from abroad, with their votes counted there rather than at home (like, I assume, for some French servicemen abroad - hence why Panzergirl won Djibouti in 2017), that would create a larger Republican base probably in a lot of countries.

I agree that the Gulf states might be more conservative because of oil company workers and other businesspeople/expats after low taxes, but even in those places I think a fair share of US expats (and particularly likely voters) are teachers in international schools (though even 'American' schools in the Gulf states increasingly hire non-US expat teachers and local staff). My American teachers in Riyadh were largely Democrats, and the Republicans were mostly ex-military/science and tech types who probably didn't like Trump much (I was there during the Bush era). Likewise, a fair share of US expat voters in China would probably be teachers at international schools.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

According to FVAP's estimates here, the largest VAP American expat populations are:

1. Canada (516k)
2. UK (327k)
3. Israel (183.5k)
4. France (181k)
5. Australia (126k)
6. Japan (92.8k)
7. Switzerland (87.7k)
8. Mexico (80.8k)
9. Germany (75k)
10. Hong Kong (64.8k)

However, not all expats would register to vote from abroad (at most around half would, assuming a simple procedure). The main quasi-universal aspect of expat voting is that turnout is very low, much lower than in the country, even assuming the most accessible voting procedure (voting at all embassies and consulates, like France and many other countries have) - France had 35-38% turnout in 2022 abroad, Italy had 26% turnout this year, Colombia had 31.5% turnout this year. Only those who still actively keep an interest in their home country's politics and/or still have active connections with it, bother voting (although even in the most accessible voting scenarios, there are still big obstacles - not everyone lives close to an embassy or consulate).

According to FVAP's demographic data, only 20% of US expats have less than a bachelor's degree and three-fifths are employed (and around one fifth are seniors/retirees). About a third say they're abroad because they were born abroad and/or are dual citizens.

Obviously, especially post-2016, US expats who vote would be overwhelmingly Democratic - like how Macron defeated Panzergirl 86 to 14 in the runoff this year. Against Trump, you could probably expect such numbers.

As for specific countries, you'd assume that Americans in Canada, Australia and Europe would be overwhelmingly Democratic by massive margins. Perhaps some of the Americans in Switzerland are there for tax reasons, so they might be more Republican, especially pre-2016. Americans in Mexico would also probably be heavily Democratic - a lot of them are dual nationals (a huge lot of them are under 18, according to Mexico's census data) and/or US-born, so I assume turnout would be quite low. Israel could be interesting - I assume a lot of Americans there are Jewish and made aliyah, so they could have different voting patterns than most Jews in the US.

I'm not sure if US military abroad is included in FVAP estimates. If they did vote from abroad, with their votes counted there rather than at home (like, I assume, for some French servicemen abroad - hence why Panzergirl won Djibouti in 2017), that would create a larger Republican base probably in a lot of countries.

I agree that the Gulf states might be more conservative because of oil company workers and other businesspeople/expats after low taxes, but even in those places I think a fair share of US expats (and particularly likely voters) are teachers in international schools (though even 'American' schools in the Gulf states increasingly hire non-US expat teachers and local staff). My American teachers in Riyadh were largely Democrats, and the Republicans were mostly ex-military/science and tech types who probably didn't like Trump much (I was there during the Bush era). Likewise, a fair share of US expat voters in China would probably be teachers at international schools.

One other group that's going to be disproportionately in developing countries would be religious missionaries, who are obviously going to be much more Republican than many of the other groups.  Though, it wouldn't stun me if evangelical missionaries are somewhat less Republican than churchgoing evangelicals as a whole (even if they still lean that way).

[Del Tachi]

Depends...are American servicemen stationed overseas counted in the "Americans living abroad" category or something different? 

[Bismarck]

Mostly left leaning I would think. Small sample sizes in a few countries would probably get you some Republican wins. Israel might be interesting, I would imagine that Jewish people religious enough to move to Israel might be conservative.

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Democrats do offer a primary for voters abroad - not sure if they break down the data by country or region at all.

As stated already most countries would be extremely Democratic except some Gulf states, maybe some areas of Eastern Europe, Israel, and probably several Latin American countries where there are more natives with US citizenship rather than expats who choose to live there.

One bizarre feature of the US is that there are practically no countries with working class American migrants, so it just favors the party of the more upper class to begin with. Historically this would have been the Republicans - take a look at the history of Hawaii for example.

Isn't that just true of high-income countries in general? I doubt there are any Japanese or Norwegians heading abroad to be waiters and gardeners.

[Aurelius]

I actually think Mexico could be Republican. Have to imagine a lot of the people who move to places like Baja are pretty similar to the sorts of people who move to Florida or Arizona.

[vitoNova]

Depends if you consider the "Americans abroad" / "American expat community" to encompass the hundreds of thousands of servicemembers, defense contractors, and government employees who live and work in military communities overseas.

Hell, I spent a cumulative total 8 years overseas (3 years in uniform, 5 years civilian), and we never used the terms "expat" or "Americans abroad" to describe ourselves because I'm not sure if an American on SOFA status who gets paid in US dollars, pays US taxes, and lives and works largely amongst other Americans inside an American enclave can truly be considered an "expat", despite being in a foreign setting.

Because if you count them in the tally, I'm guessing it will skew GOP.  

[vitoNova]

I actually think Mexico could be Republican. Have to imagine a lot of the people who move to places like Baja are pretty similar to the sorts of people who move to Florida or Arizona.

Yup.  As a kid I sometimes used to visit my uncle in Chula Vista during the summer, and I can confirm.  His network of friends and cronies from his real-estate ventures who decided to move down to Baja or purchase property down there were definitely well-to-do boomers of the "Jimmy-Buffett-Republican" persuasion.   

A term I literally just made up, but accurately describes the ruddy-cheeked gringos down there.