The 2022 Congressional elections if Biden didn’t end the Afghanistan War

[darklordoftech]

?

[kwabbit]

Better for Dems, but I almost wonder if the court would've been so antimajoritarian if Biden didn't suffer the embarrassment of Afghanistan and still had positive approval. Kavanaugh might've thought the GOP was going to win a huge landslide regardless, but if Biden was still popular it could've seemed too damaging to the GOP to strike down Roe.

[MATTROSE94]

Wisconsin and North Carolina flip and the Democrats possibly hold the House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wisconsin and North Carolina flip and the Democrats possibly hold the House.

We would of won WI S, holding Rs to a +5 seat majority and Santos, Lawler, Garcia, and Brobert  and Kean the vulnerable 5 was a victory for Ds

[Zedonathin2020]

Wisconsin and North Carolina flip and the Democrats possibly hold the House.

North Carolina is debatable, but Wisconsin most definitely flips

[MATTROSE94]

Wisconsin and North Carolina flip and the Democrats possibly hold the House.

North Carolina is debatable, but Wisconsin most definitely flips

North Carolina is a military heavy state that had Joe Biden lose a lot of support after the Afghanistan withdrawal, so maybe it flips (though overcoming a 121,000 vote deficit isn’t that easy).

[Mr. Smith]

The Afghanistan War was a millstone everyone was tired of, keeping it going would've given the GOP the antiwar option...just like how Trump pretended to be a dove against Hillary.

[mpbond]

Something to keep in mind is that in order to stay in Afghanistan, Biden likely would have to have reneged on the agreement with the Taliban (made by Trump) to pull out all troops. If that were the case, US troops would have come under Taliban attack eventually, and I don't think a re-escalation of the war in Afghanistan would have been politically better for Biden than what actually happened. It was a damned if you do damned if you don't situation for the President.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Inflation, abortion, and Trump were much bigger factors than Afghanistan.

[Pericles]

It did break Biden's honeymoon period and undermine his reputation for competence, but voters weren't thinking about Afghanistan a year and a bit later. So it was probably the spark but not the cause, and the really tough two years would have meant Biden's approval rating ended up at exactly the same place in November 2022. Perhaps even Democrats would have been hurt in a different way if the US had stayed and violence against the troops escalated.

[SWE]

No impact whatsoever. The American public's position was that Biden should end the war but without any of the consequences which the war entails. The American people wanted all of their groceries in one bag and then got mad when the bag was heavy - it was a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Going back on a campaign promise and continuing an unpopular war would not have been any more popular than ripping the band-aid off - if anything, it'd probably be worse, because there'd be a chance of some new development in the course of the war that could be pinned on us staying in, which would be far more salient the closer it is to election day.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

No impact whatsoever. The American public's position was that Biden should end the war but without any of the consequences which the war entails. The American people wanted all of their groceries in one bag and then got mad when the bag was heavy - it was a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. Going back on a campaign promise and continuing an unpopular war would not have been any more popular than ripping the band-aid off - if anything, it'd probably be worse, because there'd be a chance of some new development in the course of the war that could be pinned on us staying in, which would be far more salient the closer it is to election day.

That’s just how the public is. Another example; most Americans want diversity in high education, but most are against affirmative ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Progressive Pessimist]

No difference. That may have been the moment when his approval ratings plummeted, but that still would have happened later anyway when the post-COVID inflation and supply-chain crisis began in late 2021, as well as the complications with passing the BBB.