Reaction to no gubernatorial seats flipping other than MA/MD?

[Tekken_Guy]

What would your reaction be to no gubernatorial seats flipping other than Massachusetts and Maryland?

This means that Kelly, Sisolak, and Evers all hold on and Kotek beats Drazan, but Lake beats Hobbs at the same time and Kemp and DeSantis all win too.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not a surprise at all.

[MT Treasurer]

Kemp is not winning a majority of the vote/Lake not winning even a plurality of the vote on a night when Sisolak, Evers, and Kelly all win reelection, so wake up.

[Sir Mohamed]

Kemp is not winning a majority of the vote/Lake not winning even a plurality of the vote on a night when Sisolak, Evers, and Kelly all win reelection, so wake up.

Disagree. It's very much possible all of them win reelection at the same time. Every has been polling relatively solid given circumstances, Kemp is definitely favored and Kelly looks in a good position, as well. Same with Sisolak as NV polls have previously overestimated GOP support. Meanwhile, Kari Lake can still pull it off easily.

[MT Treasurer]

Disagree.

i know

Every has been polling relatively solid given circumstances,

wouldn’t call leading in only three of the last eight polls "relatively solid" for an incumbent democrat in wisconsin

Kemp is definitely favored

kemp needs an absolute majority to win outright in november, which is possible but seems doubtful if republicans can’t even one of the low-hanging fruit races in nv/wi/ks — "definitely" is certainly not the adverb i would use here

and Kelly looks in a good position, as well.

based on what, exactly? race seems like a toss-up at best for her

Same with Sisolak as NV polls have previously overestimated GOP support.

except they didn’t in 2020 or 2014 and barely did in 2016 but okay

Meanwhile, Kari Lake can still pull it off easily.

no she can’t pull it off "easily" on a night when republicans are losing virtually every other competitive race

[Sir Mohamed]

Disagree.

i know

Every has been polling relatively solid given circumstances,

wouldn’t call leading in only three of the last eight polls "relatively solid" for an incumbent democrat in wisconsin

Kemp is definitely favored

kemp needs an absolute majority to win outright in november, which is possible but seems doubtful if republicans can’t even one of the low-hanging fruit races in nv/wi/ks — "definitely" is certainly not the adverb i would use here

and Kelly looks in a good position, as well.

based on what, exactly? race seems like a toss-up at best for her

Same with Sisolak as NV polls have previously overestimated GOP support.

except they didn’t in 2020 or 2014 and barely did in 2016 but okay

Meanwhile, Kari Lake can still pull it off easily.

no she can’t pull it off "easily" on a night when republicans are losing virtually every other competitive race

- Evers has constantly been outpolling Barnes so far and Michels doesn't strike me as strong as RoJo. So given environment and swing state with Johnson on ballot, things could be worse for Evers. Even 538 Deluxe model gives him the upper hand.

- Kemp has constantly been in the lead, even while Warnock is ahead. So he's got at least some crossover support. GA-Gov is Lean R.

- Kelly: Tossup means she has approx. 50% chance to win. Polling also had the abortion referendum much closer.

- Lake has been leading in most recent polls, and AZ is more R-friendly statewide.

I don't think you can make the case there's an uniform swing in gubernatorial elections. Perhaps for senate, but even that may not apply everywhere.

That said, I don't think no seat flipping other than MA + MD is the most likely outcome, but for sure within the range of possibilities.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OK, AZ, GA, SD are suspect for Rs, Hobbs has lead in every poll except Trafalgar

It's weird because VT, NH, OH, FL and TX and SC are R

[MT Treasurer]

- Evers has constantly been outpolling Barnes so far and Michels doesn't strike me as strong as RoJo. So given environment and swing state with Johnson on ballot, things could be worse for Evers. Even 538 Deluxe model gives him the upper hand.

a) It’s not that Evers isn’t consistently outpolling Barnes (much of this is attributable to third-party candidates being on the ballot in the gubernatorial race but not the Senate race, however), it’s that he’s not outpolling him by enough (esp. in terms of vote share).
b) Since when did Democrats start considering RoJo "strong"?
c) I don’t care about any of 538's models.

- Kelly: Tossup means she has approx. 50% chance to win. Polling also had the abortion referendum much closer.

The abortion referendum was not a partisan November election.

- Lake has been leading in most recent polls, and AZ is more R-friendly statewide.

It’s an open seat in a swing state featuring two candidates who both lack (significant) crossover appeal — about as good a bellwether as you can get when it comes to gauging the overall national environment, and if the environment is good enough for Lake to win by a couple of points, why are Republicans losing nearly every other gubernatorial race? Yes, Democrats have incumbents running in NV/KS/MI/etc., but they all (esp. Sisolak) lack significant crossover appeal. AZ being more R-friendly statewide than at the federal level is a fair but very debatable point.

I don't think you can make the case there's an uniform swing in gubernatorial elections. Perhaps for senate, but even that may not apply everywhere.

I don’t believe in uniform swing and agree that it’s nonsensical but I believe in some patterns and basic critical thinking skills as opposed to just "take poll margins and what I think polling bias will be and that’s my prediction."

[Calthrina950]

- Evers has constantly been outpolling Barnes so far and Michels doesn't strike me as strong as RoJo. So given environment and swing state with Johnson on ballot, things could be worse for Evers. Even 538 Deluxe model gives him the upper hand.

a) It’s not that Evers isn’t consistently outpolling Barnes (much of this is attributable to third-party candidates being on the ballot in the gubernatorial race but not the Senate race, however), it’s that he’s not outpolling him by enough (esp. in terms of vote share).
b) Since when did Democrats start considering RoJo "strong"?
c) I don’t care about any of 538's models.

- Kelly: Tossup means she has approx. 50% chance to win. Polling also had the abortion referendum much closer.

The abortion referendum was not a partisan November election.

- Lake has been leading in most recent polls, and AZ is more R-friendly statewide.

It’s an open seat in a swing state featuring two candidates who both lack (significant) crossover appeal — about as good a bellwether as you can get when it comes to gauging the overall national environment, and if the environment is good enough for Lake to win by a couple of points, why are Republicans losing nearly every other gubernatorial race? Yes, Democrats have incumbents running in NV/KS/MI/etc., but they all (esp. Sisolak) lack significant crossover appeal. AZ being more R-friendly statewide than at the federal level is a fair but very debatable point.

I don't think you can make the case there's an uniform swing in gubernatorial elections. Perhaps for senate, but even that may not apply everywhere.

I don’t believe in uniform swing and agree that it’s nonsensical but I believe in some patterns and basic critical thinking skills as opposed to just "take poll margins and what I think polling bias will be and that’s my prediction."

Do you think there are any Governors this year who do enjoy crossover appeal? I think we could make that case with DeSantis, Kemp, and Polis (and obviously Sununu and Scott). And what do you think about Democratic chances in Oklahoma, where polls have shown a competitive race?

[bagelman]

Not ideal, it'd probably be better for Drazen and Hobbs to win, but not the worst thing that could happen.

[Hope For A New Era]

Mildly surprised, but it's a very plausible outcome.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That would be a -very- good night for Dems!
I'd think they are favorites to hold the House in this scenario, and win at least 51 Senate seats.