Reaction if Drazan wins?

[Senator Spark]

Won't be surprising.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not saying we are definitely gonna win outside the 303 map that's wave insurance, it's definitely a 303 map because instead of 80/75 M we are gonna get 65/60m the exact number Obama won over Romney and that was a 303 map and if Johnson or Oz or Walker , or Drazen or Lake or LOMBARDO or Masters cannot poll outside the MOE those Provisions ballots are gonna come our way 180K of them which is gonna swing the Eday to Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Won't be surprising.

It's not happening it's within the MOE all the close races went D last time because of Provisions ballots

[Progressive Pessimist]

At this point I am expecting it. I don't think we can even call it an upset anymore even as it broke a very long streak.

The media will probably still treat her win that way if does happen and it might even be the "upset" of the night unless an even bigger one happens elsewhere in the country.

[Aurelius]

She won't, Knute had all the same hype in 2018 and didn't even come close.

Knute only led in a couple of polls, and Brown led the last 8ish in a row. Drazan has led the last 7 polls in a row, Johnson's candidacy makes things more interesting, and it's a much more favorable year for the GOP than 2018 was. Plus the problems in Portland have gotten much worse and more noteworthy since 2018, which might swing a few suburbanites.

The new dummymander also means there are 3 competitive districts now, compared to 1 last time. In 2018, there were zero because DeFazio's opponent was a crankish perennial candidate. At the absolute margins that could result in a few more Republicans motivated to go out and vote.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Well, I'm clearly in the minority here, but I stand by my initial stance.

Why not take my turn in a time-honored Atlas tradition. If Drazan indeed pulls it off and Oregon has the misfortune of electing its first Republican governor in 40ish years... I'll change my name and/or signature to something "celebrating" her victory.

I still don't think a MAGA Republican will be sitting in any position of authority in Oregon any time soon... Dems will come home. But we shall see. Feel free to quote me in shame if it does happen.

[coloradocowboi]

The media will be aflame with “did Oregon Dems go too far?” Takes and will completely ignore how the Nike billionaire astroturfed a “sensible moderate” campaign to siphon off dem votes only to turn on her in the end to elect an extremist

[Aurelius]

The media will be aflame with “did Oregon Dems go too far?” Takes and will completely ignore how the Nike billionaire astroturfed a “sensible moderate” campaign to siphon off dem votes only to turn on her in the end to elect an extremist

Much simpler explanation: Oregon has had a Dem governor for 35 straight years, the most of any state, ruling-party fatigue is a thing, and Oregon is not as super-ultra-blue as some other states. Put that together with a Biden midterm and voila.

(of course, it's this plus all the other stuff I mentioned above)

[Devout Centrist]

Oh no. Anyway…

[Calthrina950]

The media will be aflame with “did Oregon Dems go too far?” Takes and will completely ignore how the Nike billionaire astroturfed a “sensible moderate” campaign to siphon off dem votes only to turn on her in the end to elect an extremist

Much simpler explanation: Oregon has had a Dem governor for 35 straight years, the most of every state, ruling-party fatigue is a thing, and Oregon is not as super-ultra-blue as some other states. Put that together with a Biden midterm and voila.

(of course, it's this plus all the other stuff I mentioned above)

South Dakota actually has the longest streak for one-party control of the governorship, as it last elected a Democratic Governor in 1974. And Oregon is beat out by Washington, which last elected a Republican Governor in 1980. But it does have the third-longest streak for one-party control.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Between Youngkin, Hogan, Sununu, Baker, Scott, Beshear, and Kelly we've had more good Governors who are the opposite party to the majority of the state than bad ones.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well, I'm clearly in the minority here, but I stand by my initial stance.

Why not take my turn in a time-honored Atlas tradition. If Drazan indeed pulls it off and Oregon has the misfortune of electing its first Republican governor in 40ish years... I'll change my name and/or signature to something "celebrating" her victory.

I still don't think a MAGA Republican will be sitting in any position of authority in Oregon any time soon... Dems will come home. But we shall see. Feel free to quote me in shame if it does happen.

She is not a MAGA Republican lol. She accepts the results of the 2020 Election. Go to 4:46 on this video and you can see that

KGW even called Kotek out for this:

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Her debate answers were actually decent, although Jesus Christ her voice is annoying.

[Person Man]

More signs that the Democratic Party has serious problems. It's not necessarily the end of the world, but it is just another small nail in the coffin of the establishment.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not surprised, tbh. I think there's an even greater chance she wins at this point rather than not.

Thanks to an unpopular gov on her way out and a 3rd party run as a wildcard, Dems are about to run out of their long winning streak in OR. It remains to be seen how Drazan performs in office. If she can at least pretend to be a moderate like Hogan, she'll be fine even in a state like this. If she turns hard right, she won't get much done with the legislature and end up as 1-termer.

[Kamala's side hoe]

We'll see what happens, but I'll be shaking my head at Oregonian voters if Kotek wins. The situation in the state is disastrous, particularly in Portland, and Democrats have held the governorship there for almost 35 years. Kotek will be another term of Kate Brown.

Question… Have you ever been to Portland? I find that people who say that usually haven’t.

I never have, but I've read about the situation there and in Oregon in general, and it's certainly not a good situation.

It’s far more complicated and nuanced than the Republican talking line of ‘PDX Anarchy’ however, similar to the hysteria over CHAZ in Seattle. If you actually talk to locals, or have friends and family like I do who actually live there — the ‘crisis’ they talk about like it’s a third world country is insanely exaggerated and most local voters realize that the GOP is only using them to scare up votes without actually offering any realistic solutions.

Any way, we shall see. My gut tells me that this is a repeat of 2018 and Kotek wins by at least 2-3 points.

Agreec with your point on GOP fearmongering, I also don’t think Drazan will be able to do much to address the issues at hand. But as someone who absolutely refuses to vote for either Drazan or Johnson, Kotek’s online ads seem a little desperate.

Will be interesting to see precinct and municipal level swings/trends regardless of the final outcome.  

[Mr. Smith]

None honestly.

Now if combined with Kevin Stitt losing Oklahoma, that'd be a yuge wth!